2025 Belmont Stakes odds, predictions, contenders, horses

The 2025 running presents a historic change for the Belmont Stakes. The reduction from 12 furlongs to 10 furlongs, the same distance as the Kentucky Derby (G1), could significantly impact traditional race dynamics:

1. The traditional "Test of the Champion" at 1 1/2 miles often favored horses with superior stamina and staying power, so at 1 1/4 miles, the race may be more favorable to horses with tactical speed
2. The Saratoga main track configuration is different from Belmont's sweeping turn, so this distance change could benefit horses like Journalism and Baeza, who have shown high-class form at 9-10 furlongs
3. The shorter distance might make the race more competitive overall, as fewer horses will face stamina limitations. This unique situation makes the 2025 Belmont Stakes particularly interesting from both a historical and handicapping perspective.
4. Shift for stronger emphasis on proven class, less emphasis on pedigree for stamina
5. More value in playing exactas/trifectas than trying to bomb the winner

• #1 HILL ROAD (10-1):  
  • Pro: Improving form with recent win, along in time to win Peter Pan (G3), and should be even better stretching out an extra furlong. 
  • Con: Class jump from previous races, needs not only a strong pace but also a few of the top players to have an off day.
  • Bet With: Include in trifecta boxes with favorites
  • Bet Against: Play favorites over him in vertical wagers
     
• #2 SOVEREIGNTY (2-1): 
  • Pro: Mott/Alvarado team excels in classic distances, Kentucky Derby winner handles all conditions, and a five-week freshening is a plus.
  • Con: May need to be closer to pace at shorter trip, the pace might not be as strong as in Derby, which might hinder chances.
  • Bet With: More attractive in win pool at this distance, Key in exactas over fresh horses
  • Bet Against: Play others to win, use him second only
     
• #3 RODRIGUEZ (6-1): 
  • Pro: Baffert trainee with tactical speed, classier than other speed, and might prove tough to catch if he can sneak away.
  • Con: Coming off a significant layoff, missed earlier classics due to foot issues; two-month layoff is a concern.
  • Bet With: More dangerous at 10f vs 12f given his speed, consider using higher in exotic tickets, use in exactas with Journalism
  • Bet Against: Leave off tickets if pace looks too hot
     
• #4 UNCAGED (30-1): 
  • Pro: Pletcher/Saez combination, based on his record so far, chances improve if the track comes up wet.
  • Con: Well beaten in recent stakes try, flattened out quickly in Peter Pan, and doesn’t appear to be of this class yet.
  • Bet With: Deep exotic tickets only
  • Bet Against: Exclude from shorter exotic wagers
     
• #5 CRUDO (15-1): 
  • Pro: Sharp recent stakes win, improving pattern, dominant in the last two, including restricted Sir Barton S. at Pimlico.
  • Con: Biggest class test to date, doesn’t appear to be more than a potential pace factor on paper.
  • Bet With: Value play in exactas under favorites
  • Bet Against: Leave off win tickets

• #6 BAEZA (4-1): 
  • Pro: Versatile running style suits Belmont's pace scenarios, narrowly missed second in the Kentucky Derby, and has a lot of upside.
  • Con: Drew outside, may need to use early energy, hasn’t yet outfinished the other three main contenders.
  • Bet With: Include in all trifecta combinations
  • Bet Against: Fade in win pool at short odds
     
• #7 JOURNALISM (8-5): 
  • Pro: Highest speed figures and class ratings in field, bravely won Preakness (G1) despite adversity; near or at the top of this crop.
  • Con: Short price, as fresh as Sovereignty, the only horse to beat him since his debut.
  • Bet With: Single in multi-race wagers
  • Bet Against: Use underneath favorites in exactas/trifectas
     
• #8 HEART OF HONOR (30-1): 
  • Pro: Proven at graded stakes level
  • Con: Failed to threaten in Preakness
  • Bet With: Include in superfecta tickets underneath
  • Bet Against: Leave off shorter vertical wagers