2025 Belmont Stakes Speed Rating Report

Saturday’s 157th running of the Belmont S. (G1) will feature an exciting rematch between the top three in the Kentucky Derby (G1). After winning the Roses, Sovereignty skipped the Preakness (G1) for the Belmont five weeks later.

Journalism, who finished 1 1/2 lengths back of Sovereignty in second at Churchill Downs, came back to win the Preakness dramatically, overcoming severe trouble in midstretch to prevail by a half-length in the final strides. A winner in five of his last six starts, Journalism has been installed as the 8-5 morning line favorite among eight three-year-olds in the Belmont, and Umberto Rispoli rides the Curlin colt for Michael McCarthy.

Sovereignty, a Bill Mott-trained son of Into Mischief, is pegged as the 5-2 second choice, and Junior Alvarado guides the late runner.

A half-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont winner Dornoch, Baeza remains an exciting presence following his third in the Kentucky Derby. 

A maiden winner three starts previously, Baeza jumped to stakes competition with a commendable second to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and experienced trouble on the far turn of the Kentucky Derby, offering an eye-catching rally for third in the stretch drive. Baeza is a candidate to keep progressing for John Shirreffs, and Flavien Prat will be up on the McKinzie colt.

The Belmont will be held over 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga for the second consecutive year, and the final jewel of the Triple Crown will return to its traditional 1 1/2-mile distance when Belmont Park reopens in 2026.

Let’s review the last two Brisnet Speed ratings for the 2025 Belmont field (listed by top last-out number).

Takeaways

After beating up on short fields in California, Journalism was shuffled back during the early stages and rated well off the pace in the Kentucky Derby for the first time. He still offered a fine move to take the lead in upper stretch, giving way to Sovereignty in the final furlong, and the experience toughened up Journalism. Despite being nearly wiped out by a tiring rival in the stretch of Preakness, the bay colt regained his stride and momentum to rally thrillingly to the front in deep stretch, erasing a five-length deficit with fierce determination.

Journalism registered a 107 Brisnet Speed rating, the top last-out number in the Belmont field, and nearly paired up his career-best figure, a 108 in the Santa Anita Derby. He’s earned triple-digit Speed ratings in the last four starts, and triple-digit Brisnet Late Pace numbers in five of the last six, and Journalism rates as the one to beat based upon numbers.

Sovereignty had been on the verge of the triple-digit threshold, netting a 99 figure for his game win in the Fountain of Youth (G2) three starts previously, but the Kentucky Derby marked the first time he reached the century mark, netting a 103 figure that was nine points better than his runner-up effort in the Florida Derby (G1) two back. He had shown an affinity for Churchill, earning his first stakes win when romping by five lengths in the Street Sense (G3) last fall, and finished fourth in his career debut when making his lone appearance at Saratoga last August. However, Sovereignty was still a raw prospect at that stage – he’s progressed nicely this season for his Hall of Fame trainer and appears to be still improving.

A well-built sophomore colt, Baeza was far from a finished product when making his career debut on turf last December. He broke his maiden two starts later in mid-February and gave Journalism all he could handle despite a lack of seasoning in the Santa Anita Derby next out. One can argue that Sovereignty and Journalism caught Baeza at the right time in his career; their less-experienced rival was still in a developmental stage entering the Kentucky Derby, and Baeza will benefit significantly from the setback. His numbers fit, and Baeza will seek to keep advancing with a strong showing from just off the pace.

It promises to be an exciting race between the top three.

Rodriguez earned an outstanding 105 Speed rating when dominating the Wood Memorial (G2) on the front end in early April, 14 points better than his previous stakes efforts, well-beaten thirds in the San Felipe (G2) and Robert B. Lewis (G3). He missed the first two legs of the Triple Crown due to a bruised foot, which means the Bob Baffert-trained colt will be returning from a two-month freshening Saturday. And with the speedy Crudo entered, Rodriguez doesn’t project to have everything his own way on the Belmont lead.

Heart of Honor received a decent 97 rating when rallying belatedly for fifth in the Preakness, his first U.S. appearance, but the dedicated closer must improve to challenge for a minor award in the Belmont. Crudo will add to the pace after a dominant wire-to-wire performance in the Sir Barton on the Preakness undercard, but his numbers appear too low to make a significant impact. 

Hill Road has something going for him following a nice win in the Peter Pan (G2), and the late runner has some appeal for the bottom of the exotics given the presence of Crudo and Rodgriguez, but his lower Speed ratings are difficult to endorse. Uncaged doesn’t appear fast enough to be competitive.

Good luck in Belmont 157!

Join us on June 7 for a rematch that will shake the stands. Many top Kentucky Derby contenders return for the Belmont S. (G1) to fight for the finish, including probable contender Journalism, winner of Preakness 150, and Sovereignty, winner of Derby 151. Who will stand in the winner's circle for Belmont?

Stay with us throughout Belmont Day during stakes races as we bring you the latest horse racing news, live odds, expert picks, and more. It is sure to be an exciting day of racing!

Also, come chat with our expert panel regarding Friday and Saturday racing during Saratoga's Friday card, including the Acorn Stakes!