Belmont Stakes Preview
The field of eight horses entered in the 2015 Belmont are all familiar faces: six of the entries all competed in the Kentucky Derby, one was an also-eligible for the Derby and was second in the Preakness, and another was on the Derby trail but left to win the Peter Pan. To help you find the value we asked our resident horse racing expert (the real expert, there are lots here who just think they are) at BetAmerica, Jen Perkins, to guide us through all the runners:The field size is not the smallest faced by a horse attempting to complete the Triple Crown, and though American Pharoah may have scared away a few competitors, the remaining foes are tough:
Post | Horse | Odds | Jockey | Trainer | Notes |
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Mubtaahij | 10-1 | Irad Ortiz, Jr | Mike de Kock | Mubtaahij ran respectably in the Kentucky Derby, and horses from overseas tend to improve in their second start stateside. He is accustomed to running longer distances than the rest of the field and put in an unprecedented six works since the Derby. | |
Tale of Verve | 15-1 | Gary Stevens | Dallas Stewart | Dallas Stewart excels at training a 3-year-old into peak form for a big run in a Triple Crown race, but the problem is, he usually doesn’t do it in back-to-back races. Gary Stevens is aboard now; Stevens has pulled the upset in the Belmont before, when Victory Gallop defeated Real Quiet in 1998. | |
Madefromlucky | 12-1 | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | Of the last 13 Triple Crown attempts, three of the upsets were by horses that won the Peter Pan Stakes prior to entering the Belmont. Madefromlucky won the Peter Pan with Castellano onboard for the first time; two starts before that, he was second to American Pharoah in the Rebel. | |
Frammento | 30-1 | Mike Smith | Nick Zito | Fans of Smarty Jones may bristle when they hear “Nick Zito” and “Belmont” in the same sentence, as Zito trained 2004 Belmont winner Birdstone. Frammento hasn’t done much to impress, but he gets Mike Smith for this race, and he goes blinkers off, a move that worked well for Palace Malice in the 2013 Belmont. | |
American Pharoah | 3/5 | Victor Espinoza | Bob Baffert | What is left to say about the Pharoah? He’ll undoubtedly be the post-time favorite and is all class, but he’ll have a target on his back and racing at Big Sandy is unlike anything he’s experienced before. Good thing Espinoza has lived it all before on California Chrome… | |
Frosted | 5-1 | Joel Rosario | Kieran McLaughlin | For those looking for the upset in the race, this is the horse of choice for most horseplayers. Frosted had throat surgery after the Fountain of Youth and returned in the Wood as an entirely new horse. He was closing well in the Derby, suggesting that the extra distance and endurance shouldn’t be a problem. | |
Keen Ice | 20-1 | Kent Desormeaux | Dale Romans | Like Frosted, his close in the Derby indicated that a longer race won’t be an issue. Unlike Frosted, his best running style is to close from far back, which rarely works on this oval. He is sired by Curlin, however, and Kent Desormeaux is probably still feeling the sting of defeat from his rides aboard Big Brown and Real Quiet. | |
Materiality | 6-1 | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | Sire Afleet Alex won the 2005 Belmont and the only race Materiality has ever lost was the Kentucky Derby. He has been working nicely at Belmont since then and though he is lightly raced, he could be tough to ignore here. |
Jen's Belmont Analysis:
What is left to say about the Pharoah? He’ll be the post-time favorite and is all class, but he’ll have a target on his back and racing at Big Sandy is unlike anything he’s experienced before. From the outside, #8 Materiality has the potential to control the entire race. His sire Afleet Alex won the 2005 running of this race, he has been working nicely at Belmont, and though his only loss was the Kentucky Derby, he was passing horses and making up ground. #6 Frosted had throat surgery after the Fountain of Youth and returned in the Wood as an entirely new horse. He was closing well in the Derby, suggesting that the extra distance and endurance shouldn’t be a problem. Rumor has it that #7 Keen Ice, I horse I liked in the Derby, didn’t take well to the surface that day and has been training well since then. Another closer, he’ll have to rely on the genes from his sire Curlin, a narrow runner-up in the 2007 Belmont. My tip? Cheer for the Pharoah and his place in history but box these four in your exotics.
Selections: 8-6-5-7
What is left to say about the Pharoah? He’ll be the post-time favorite and is all class, but he’ll have a target on his back and racing at Big Sandy is unlike anything he’s experienced before. From the outside, #8 Materiality has the potential to control the entire race. His sire Afleet Alex won the 2005 running of this race, he has been working nicely at Belmont, and though his only loss was the Kentucky Derby, he was passing horses and making up ground. #6 Frosted had throat surgery after the Fountain of Youth and returned in the Wood as an entirely new horse. He was closing well in the Derby, suggesting that the extra distance and endurance shouldn’t be a problem. Rumor has it that #7 Keen Ice, I horse I liked in the Derby, didn’t take well to the surface that day and has been training well since then. Another closer, he’ll have to rely on the genes from his sire Curlin, a narrow runner-up in the 2007 Belmont. My tip? Cheer for the Pharoah and his place in history but box these four in your exotics.
Selections: 8-6-5-7