Scully: Pick 3 play on Belmont Stakes Day

Editor's note: Due to heavy rain at Saratoga, Race 12, the Manhattan (G1), has been postponed until Sunday. As a result, the Pick 3 starting in Race 11 has been canceled. 

Saturday’s $2 million Belmont (G1) features an exciting rematch between Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Sovereignty and Preakness (G1) winner Journalism, and Baeza also looms as a major contender following his rallying third in the Kentucky Derby.

After reeling off four consecutive stakes wins over short fields in Southern California, #7 Journalism (8-5) came up short as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby, holding second after being overtaken by Sovereignty in the stretch. Still, the experience proved beneficial as he came back two weeks later to win the Preakness, overcoming trouble in midstretch to get up with a determined rally.

The Curlin colt is tactical, registering triple-digit Brisnet E2 numbers in the last three starts, and owns a powerful finishing kick. In an eight-horse Belmont field, Journalism will look to settle behind the speed, enabling him to get the jump on projected closers Baeza and Sovereignty, and I give Journalism the edge.

Baeza lacked seasoning entering the Kentucky Derby, breaking his maiden two starts previously, and was forced to corner extremely wide into the stretch after being stopped briefly in traffic on the far turn, closing well to miss second by a nose. Baeza appears likely to keep progressing for John Shirreffs and will be included in multi-race wagers.

I will recommend a Pick 3 play into the Belmont, and my thoughts on the first two legs are below.

$10 Pick 3 (races 11-13)

1,4,11 with 2 with 6,7 ($60)

Race 11 – Woody Stephens (G1)

Three-year-olds will square off over seven furlongs and the pace figures to be hot. #11 Gate to Wire (12-1) will be rallying, and I will tab the stalker following a troubled trip in the Pat Day Mile (G2) where he didn’t break well. Todd Pletcher removes blinkers (22% over last 37 starts), and Gate to Wire projects to receive a favorable set up.

#1 Big Truzz (101) will look to add value to the equation in his stakes debut. A smashing first-out winner, the Justify colt didn’t break well in a Kentucky Derby undercard allowance next out but ran well, finishing second to #4 Patch Adams (5-1), a talented one-turn type for Brad Cox who also will be used on the ticket.

Race 12 – Manhattan (G1)

#2 Integration (9-2) showed an affinity for longer distances when posting a two-length win in the Red Smith (G2) in his 2024 finale, but trainer Shug McGaughey has raced him exclusively at shorter distances this year. The five-year-old will stretch back out for the Manhattan off a troubled trip in the Turf Classic (G1), where he was bottled up on the far turn and for most of the stretch run. Integration will be reunited with Flavien Prat, who was last up for the Red Smith score. He will be a single for my multi-race wagers.