Bet Now, Win Later; It's the Future Wager Way

Who can win the Kentucky Derby is an important question to ask when deciding whether to get involved in a future wager, but just as important for making the advance investment worth your time and money is the chance that a horse not only makes the gate but also what his odds will be if he does.

Those questions come to mind when considering this weekend’s Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

Like Danny Zucker (listen to podcast below), I like to work backward from the Derby to help determine not only what it takes to win the race but also what it takes to take money in the race. I.e., looking at the odds of recent Derbys, you have to be nearly flawless going into the races to be less than 10-to-1.

Combine a need to win out (or look really good not doing it) with the usual bumps along the trail that lead to attrition, and the lowest price I’m willing to take at this stage is 15-to-1 (see fair odds at left).

If either American Pharoah or Ocho Ocho Ocho (or both!) lose their returns then they might be a better price in Pool 4 or the Derby, which makes betting them now a tougher proposition.

Dortmund may or may not race again before the fourth pool. Either way, it’s tempting to lock in a price on him because if he wins that last prep (regardless of what he does before then) he’ll likely be less than 6-to-1 on Derby day. So 15-to-1 I’d take, but 8-to-1 I won’t.

Khozan is tempting if he drifts because I like him the most out of this quartet to win his final prep, and if he does that he’ll be a top choice as well, but the Apollo Curse is enough to keep me away at a shorter price than 15-to-1.