Betting the 2024 Belmont Stakes on Different Budgets

June 8th, 2024

An excellent cast of 10 will vie in the $2 million Belmont S. (G1) on Saturday at Saratoga. The race features the first two Classic winners of the Triple Crown series, #3 Mystik Dan (5-1) and #1 Seize the Grey (6-1), but both could be vulnerable, in my opinion. 

$30 Budget

  • $10 exacta 9 with 2,8 ($20)
  • 50-cent trifecta 9 with 2,3,5,8 with 2,3,5,7,8,10 ($10)

$60 Budget

  • $6 exacta key box 9 with 2,8 ($24)
  • 50-cent trifecta 2,8,9 with 2,8,9 with all ($24)
  • 10-cent superfecta 9 with 2,3,5,8 with 2,3,5,8 with all ($8.40)
  • 10-cent superfecta 9 with 8 with 2,3,5,7,10 with all ($3.50)

$120 Budget

  • $1 superfecta key 9 with 2,3,5,7,8,10 ($60)
  • $1 superfecta 2,3,5,7,8,10 with 9 with 2,3,5,7,8,10 ($60)

Seize the Grey has to be sent from the rail, but unlike at Pimlico three weeks ago, the colt will not be unopposed in the early stages in this spot. #4 The Wine Steward (15-1) has route speed, as does Fountain of Youth (G2) victor #6 Dornoch (15-1). And I feel that Irad Ortiz Jr. will have to send the lightly raced #10 Mindframe (7-2) from the outside post, as well. 

The next flight will see Wood Memorial (G2) winner #2 Resilience (10-1) saving ground on the rail, with Mystik Dan to his outside and Peter Pan S. (G2) star #5 Antiquarian (12-1) in that flight, too. Kentucky Derby (G1) runner-up #9 Sierra Leone (9-5), Louisiana Derby (G2) second #8 Honor Marie (12-1), and Wood and Peter Pan third #7 Protective (20-1), will be trailing in the early going. 

The way I am visualizing the race is this – the pace will be swift and contested to some extent. I don’t expect the leading quartet to be around for the win late, and I give a big edge to the closers and stalkers. Sierra Leone is as good as any horse in the crop and gets the nod. The Gun Runner colt is not the finished article, but he is a massive talent who is deserving of winning a Triple Crown contest. Flavien Prat will ride. 

I was on Resilience in the Derby and got excited when he made a big move at the top of the lane in Louisville, although my joy was short-lived as he tired late. Bill Mott said he will look to find shorter distances for the Into Mischief colt following the race, but he’s here so I have to think that he has been thriving as of late. 

Honor Marie was crushed at the start of the Derby and was last at the first call, but he ran fairly well after that to be eighth. A clean voyage and the move to Geroux could do the trick. Antiquarian was beaten just four lengths in the especially deep Louisiana Derby (G2) and came back with a confident Peter Pan score. The Preservationist colt is on the rise and will have John Velazquez in the stirrups. And Mystik Dan has the versatility and push-button acceleration to make his own trip and grab a share for Kenny McPeek. He’ll be dead fit as the lone runner to contest each leg of the Triple Crown this season. 

I have mapped out some potential plays for bettors on three different budgets.