Betting the Belmont Stakes on Different Budgets

An excellent group of nine sophomores will go postward in the historic $2 million Belmont (G1) at Saratoga on Saturday. A handful of horses in the 1 1/4-mile contest were last seen competing in the Kentucky Derby (G1), and while I have a level respect for the ‘new shooters’ in the Test of the Champion, I feel that the three-year-olds who ran in the first leg of the Triple Crown will decide this one at the finish. 

$25 Budget

• $1 trifecta 3,4 with 3,4,7,8,9 with 3,4,7,8,9 ($24)

$50 Budget

• $10 exacta box 3-4 ($20)
• $5 trifecta 4 with 3 with 7,8,9 ($15)
• $5 trifecta 4 with 7,8,9 with 3 ($15)

$100 Budget

• $4 trifecta key 4 with 3,7,8,9 ($48)
• $1 superfecta key 4 with 3,7,8,9 ($24)
• $1 superfecta 3,7,8,9 with 4 with 3,7,8,9 with 3,7,8,9 ($24)

Morning-line choice #4 Renegade (2-1) just missed in the Run for the Roses last time and will go one better in his second run at The Spa. The Todd Pletcher pupil, who was ultra-impressive in his Arkansas Derby (G1) romp two races back, has earned triple-digit Brisnet Late Pace ratings in each of his three tries in 2026 and could move forward while making his third run off the short layoff, as well. The Into Mischief bay has trained well in preparation for the race and will be motoring home late with Irad in the silks once again. 

I have liked #3 Chief Wallabee (3-1) all season and feel that he was unlucky to have only finished fourth in Louisville last time out. The Bill Mott trainee had a lot of horse and nowhere to go for much of the Derby before being squeezed as he made his move, and he showed good courage to finish fourth, nonetheless. The Constitution homebred displayed a bit more early interest with the addition of blinkers most recently, and he is a prime win candidate with regular pilot Junior Alvarado in the pipes. 

#7 Commandment (6-1) had no real excuse for his seventh-place result at Churchill last time, but the Brad Cox trainee was excellent in Florida earlier in the season and is eligible to improve and challenge for the top prize on Saturday. The Louisiana Derby (G2) victor #8 Emerging Market (6-1) was making just his third lifetime appearance in the Derby for conditioner Chad Brown, and if any runner in the group has reason for improvement it is this colt. Flavien Prat stays in the silks. I fear that the pace scenario will not benefit Derby hero #9 Golden Tempo (9-2), so I am restricting his usage to the vertical exotics. The Curlin homebred has surely moved forward since the blinkers were added two back, and he is obviously good enough to run with this cast, but going from last to first at Saratoga is a very challenging task in a field of this quality. He will make one run in the stretch with Jose Ortiz riding.