Betting With, and Against, Good Cheer in the Alabama Stakes

A total of six three-year-old fillies, two of which are Grade 1 queens, will vie in Saturday’s $1 million Alabama S. (G1) at Saratoga. The 1 1/4-mile affair on the dirt is led by the once-beaten #2 Good Cheer (8-5) for conditioner Brad Cox. By Medaglia d’Oro, the Godolphin homebred went four-for-four as a juvenile and kicked off 2025 with a trio of graded stakes wins in succession, led by a decisive score in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) at Churchill Downs on May 2. 

Good Cheer – With

• $20 trifecta key 2 with 4,6 ($40)

Good Cheer – Against

• $20 win #6 La Cara ($20)
• $5 trifecta key 4,6 with 2,4,6 with 2,4,6 ($20)

Good Cheer suffered her first setback to date in the subsequent Acorn S. (G1) on this oval when never firing and finishing fifth was the 3-10 favorite, but a sloppy, sealed surface that was especially speed-favoring could have been a big part of the reason for her subpar showing. In the interim, the bay has posted six morning drills over the surface and could be back to her old self for sure. The favorite might also appreciate the move to 10 panels with regular pilot Luis Saez in the silks. 

Acorn S. (G1) queen #6 La Cara (5-2) is the most likely upset threat in the field, in my opinion. One of two in the group for trainer Mark Casse, the two-time Grade-1 winning Street Sense lass has done some of her best work at The Spa and will likely be controlling speed against this group, too. Tracy Farmer’s homebred will be sent from the break by Dylan Davis. 

Turf standout #4 Nitrogen (9-5) missed by a nose in the Belmont Oaks (G1) on the local lawn most recently and switches surfaces in this affair. The Casse pupil aired by a whopping 17 lengths in the off-the-turf Wonder Again S. (G3) two back, and while she beat only a pair of grass specialists in the performance, the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro did earn a healthy 97 Brisnet Speed rating in the process without being asked for her best in the lane. The Kentucky-bred bay wouldn’t be a big surprise with Jose Ortiz retaining the mount.