Betting With, and Against, Lagynos in the Wise Dan Stakes

A talented cast of nine has been entered to contest Saturday’s $500,000 Wise Dan (G2) on the Churchill Downs lawn. The Steve Asmussen-trained #2 Lagynos (5-2) comes into the 1 1/16-mile grassy tilt on a four-race win streak and is surely the one to beat under Jose Ortiz. The $2.3 million earner has been a good one since his juvenile season but is really peaking in 2026, bagging a quartet of stakes races in succession with three of those coming in the graded ranks.

Lagynos – With

• $3 trifecta key 2 with 3,6,8 ($18)
• 50-cent superfecta 2 with 3,6,8 with 3,6,8 with all ($15)
• 50-cent superfecta 2 with 3,6,8 with all with 3,6,8 ($15)

Lagynos – Against

• $3 exacta box 3,6,8 ($18)
• 50-cent trifecta 3,6,8 with 2,3,6,8 with all ($27)

Lagynos loves the local green, with nine top-three results from 10 tries beneath the Twin Spires, and he was much the best in his recent Arlington (G3) triumph on the course. The Kantharos five-year-old combines tactical speed with push-button acceleration in the lane, and the Kentucky-bred chestnut will be a formidable foe if he runs something resembling his best run against this cast. 

#6 Dresden Row (7-2) is two-for-two on the grass this campaign since arriving in Todd Pletcher’s barn and was strong in an allowance victory on the surface in his latest endeavor. The Lord Nelson five-year-old, who is a multiple graded stakes winner with a three-race win streak dating back to November, is perfect from two prior assignments at the distance and could peak in his third effort off the shelf. The Kentucky-bred chestnut has the positional speed to stay in range throughout the event and will benefit from drawing outside of the favorite, too. Irad retains the mount. 

Grade 3 hero #3 Mercante (8-1) does his best work when he is close to the pace, and I expect him to receive a favorable voyage in the heat at a nice price. The Gun Runner gelding ran into a buzzsaw in the Turf Classic (G1) on the strip on Derby Day, but he comes in fresh for the tilt and will improve in his third effort of 2026. The dark bay six-year-old has run some of his best races at this venue and will be tracking the tempo with some intent from the break under Florent Geroux. 

Defending champ #8 Brilliant Berti (8-1) has to make up 2 1/4 lengths on the favorite after being fourth to that one in the Arlington (G3) for DeVaux, but he is capable on his very best day and not without a chance. The five-year-old son of Noble Mission will need some pace help to aid his one-run style, but the tempo should be honest, and the bay will also have clear sailing for the duration of the race from this post. Regular rider Brian Hernandez retains the ride.