Betting With, and Against, Splendora in the Locust Grove Stakes

Bob Baffert’s #1 Splendora (3-5) is the clear one to beat in Saturday’s $400,000 Locust Grove (G2) at Churchill Downs. A cast of six fillies and mares will travel 1 1/16 miles on the main oval in the affair, and things will go through the surging daughter of Audible, who has posted seven open-length tallies in her last eight outings. 

Splendora – With

• $30 trifecta 1 with 4 with 3 ($30)
• $10 trifecta 1 with 3 with 4 ($10) 

Splendora – Against

• $24 trifecta 4 with 1 with 3 ($24)
• $2 trifecta key 4 with 1,3 with all ($16)

Splendora, who was a dominant winner of the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (G1) in the fall at Del Mar, has gone two turns in her last pair of outings and might even be better at middle distances, as her last four route tries have resulted in fine scores. She has posted four consecutive bullet morning moves on the course in advance of Saturday and will have regular pilot Flavien Prat in the silks. 

However, for those trying to upend the favorite, it’s worth noting that her lone setback of 2026 did occur on the Churchill Downs dirt. 

Champion #4 Immersive (3-1) was second to the favorite in the Shawnee (G2) here two back prior to winning the Fleur de Lis (G2) on the course in June for trainer Brad Cox. The Godolphin homebred has done very good things in Louisville, and the daughter of Nyquist sports a 10-6-4-0 lifetime line to prove her class and consistency. She will likely be seen tracking the pace from third while in range throughout, with Luis Saez taking the reins. 

However, the swift runners signed on could establish a fast, contested pace in the tilt, which will aid the Cox-conditioned #3 Yes It Tiz (5-1). The Tiz the Law four-year-old is two-for-two on the strip; she has arguably the best closing kick of the value horses in the field, and the bay was a clear second behind a good one in the stakes ranks in Indiana last time out, too. Florent Geroux will guide the Kentucky-bred, who could sit a perfect trip to the top of the lane.