Betting with, and against the World's Best, Ka Ying Rising

Fittingly, the world’s richest race on turf has attracted the world’s best racehorse. 

Unlike last year, when #1 Ka Ying Rising was two pounds off the best in the official Longines International Rankings (though more than one ratings agency ranked him number one), the six-year-old is officially the best this year. Only Frankel, Flightline, Sea The Stars, Harbinger, Baaeed, and Equinox have matched or beaten his 135 rating this century.

For the second year, Ka Ying Rising is leaving Hong Kong for this race. Last year he arguably wasn’t at his best but still won comfortably. All of the best local chances this year were beaten in 2025.

So what, if anything, could end his 21-race winning streak?

Ka Ying Rising - With 

• $4 trifecta: 1 with 9 with 2,3,6,7,8,10,12 ($28)

Ka Ying Rising - Against

• $20 win: #9 Tempted ($20)
• $1 trifecta: 9 with 1,8 with 1,2,3,6,7,8,10,12 ($14)

There are really only a few reasons to doubt him. Firstly, he’s away from home, and though he managed it last year, it wasn’t peak Ka Ying Rising. Perhaps the best indicator is to take a line through #8 Joliestar, fifth last year, and arguably about half a length below her best that day. She was 1.58 lengths behind Ka Ying Rising.

In June this year, Joliestar went to Royal Ascot and was two noses away from winning the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee (G1) behind subsequent Haydock Sprint Cup (G1) winner Almeraq and Japanese star Satono Reve. This is the same Satono Reve that Ka Ying Rising has beaten four times in Hong Kong – by margins of three-quarters of a length, 2-1/4 lengths, 8 lengths, and 4-1/4 lengths. The last of those is probably the most accurate reflection of their relative abilities.

Based on that, Joliestar, clearly one of the top two or three Australian sprinters of the past two years, has a lot to find against Ka Ying Rising at his best. So the biggest question is whether he won’t be at his best, and if not, to what degree.

Last year, there was doubt expressed about his barrier trial leading into the race: he was third and wasn’t himself behind the barrier, and ultimately won without showing his best. This year he was second, to fellow contender #7 Ninja, but he was better behaved. Trainer David Hayes decided to have him more forward in his training for this journey, and it seems to have paid off; he finished second

One thing against Ka Ying Rising is that he has a wider barrier this year – 11, compared to 7 in 2025. It’s not ideal, but the Randwick 1200 has a fairly straight run to the first bend at the 600m mark – better than his home Sha Tin track, where the turn is longer and arrives more sharply. 

In addition, Ka Ying Rising has always had enough early pace to get close to the speed and negate the draw, so it shouldn’t be a problem.

What may give his opponents more reason to think they have a chance is the weather. Rain has made the track a Heavy 8, a surface Ka Ying Rising has never encountered. He’s handled a bit of rain, but he’s ultimately had good footing most of his career.

It means that, for once, we need to have a look at the New Zealand-bred’s pedigree, to see what wet track form is there. His sire, the fertility-challenged Shamexpress, rarely raced on anything but good ground but didn’t distinguish himself in the wet. However, some of his progeny have won in wet ground, including his other Group 1 winner, the New Zealand mare Coventina Bay, winner of the Herbie Dyke (G1) on a Soft 7 and the Manawatu Challenge (G2) on a Heavy 9. Two other Shamexpress racehorses, Grinzinger Belle and Sterling Express, won at Group 2 level on heavy footing. 

Ka Ying Rising’s dam, Missy Moo, died after producing just one other foal, so we don’t have much record of whether she can produce wet-track performers. But as a racehorse she won three of her five races on wet tracks. She is by New Zealand’s most successful stallion of the moment, Per Incanto; his best progeny include the Everest contender #2 Jimmysstar and another Group 1 winner in Gringotts, both of whom have wet track form. 

Interestingly, Ka Ying Rising’s fourth dam Taiona, one of the best New Zealand broodmares of the last 50 years, produced Victoria Derby winner Sovereign Red and Gurner’s Lane, winner of the Caulfield Cup this day on wet ground in 1982 before beating Kingston Town in the Melbourne Cup.

All of that indicates that Ka Ying Rising has a pedigree to suggest he can handle the wet. He’s also won at seven furlongs, so the extra stamina that wet ground requires should not be a problem; the biggest problem would be lack of familiarity.

So are there any dangers? If Ka Ying Rising is close to his best, there’s really only one: #9 Tempted.

Last year this daughter of Street Boss ran second as a three-year-old filly at what was her ninth career start. Since then she hasn’t been beaten, and she’s arguably gone to another level this spring. Her victory in the Premiere (G2) Oct. 3 was devastating, and she has a perfect 4-4 record on soft footing.

Form-wise, Tempted hasn’t really matched Ka Ying Rising’s peaks. But if she meets Ka Ying Rising in the form he showed in last year’s Everest, as opposed to the form he’s shown against Satono Reve and co. at Sha Tin, she has a chance. If Ka Ying Rising is in peak Hong Kong form, she’ll need to go to another level.

In the likely wet conditions, the best horses to round out the exotics, other than the aforementioned Jimmysstar, Ninja, and Joliestar, would be 2022 Everest winner #3 Giga Kick, #6 Headwall, #10 Spicy Martini, and the lightly-weighted three-year-old filly #12 Blue Door.