Betting With, and Against, Tommy Jo in the Alcibiades Stakes

Spendthrift Farm homebred #3 Tommy Jo (2-5) is a towering presence in the opening-day feature at Keeneland on Friday, the $650,000 Alcibiades S. (G1). The 1 1/16-mile affair for two-year-old fillies attracted just six, and it will take a pretty big effort to knock off the favorite in this endeavor. 

Tommy Jo – With

• $30 exacta 3 with 1 ($30)
• $8 trifecta key 3 with 1,4 ($16)

Tommy Jo – Against

• $30 trifecta 1 with 3 with 4 ($30) 
• $2 trifecta 1 with 3,4 with all ($16)

Trained by Todd Pletcher, the bay daughter of the mighty Into Mischief debuted at Saratoga on July 26 and ran a nice field off their respective feet in the lane to win with relative ease. Moved to seven-eighths for the Spinaway S. (G1) at the same venue on Aug. 30, the superb bay rolled home a facile, 6 1/2-length victress over her six overmatched foes. Her Brisnet Speed figures tower over this cast, she is bred to handle the stretch out in distance with ease, and the March foal has the versatility in her running style to be placed anywhere in a race early and still perform well, too. John Velazquez will be in the stirrups. 

If the top pick fails to fire in her local debut, then #1 Percy’s Bar (3-1) is the most likely upsetter from the rail. The Ben Colebrook pupil broke her maiden in sharp fashion at Keeneland in the spring, which preceded a dominant tally in the Debutante S. beneath the Twin Spires on June 29. The $52,000 yearling buy trekked north to Saratoga for her third outing and was a clear runner-up behind the favorite in the Spinaway. She zipped a bullet five-eighths on the Keeneland oval in her latest morning move and will be saving ground throughout beneath regular pilot Luan Machado. 

Kenny McPeek’s #4 The Grumpy Rabbit (12-1) is the other logical contender behind the favorite. The Not This Time filly ran well on the lawn at first asking and showed marked improvement in a dirt performance second time out at Ellis Park. The March foal was six clear under the line in a good maiden tally on the main oval and could have a high ceiling going forward. The chestnut didn’t come home swiftly in her score and might not have defeated a great group, but she did it the right way and can surely earn a placing on Friday with another step in the right direction. Flavien Prat taking the reins adds to her appeal.