Betting With, and Against, Troubleshooting in the Commonwealth Turf

Franklin Simpson S. (G1) winner #2 Troubleshooting (7-2) is the morning-line choice in Saturday’s deep $300,000 Commonwealth Turf S. (G3) at Churchill Downs. The 1 1/16-mile grassy test attracted a very good field of 11, but the Greg Foley trainee is the one to beat coming off a pair of graded wins in succession. 

Troubleshooting – With

• $8 exacta 2 with 3,6,9 ($24)
• 50-cent superfecta 2 with 3,9 with 3,6,9 with all ($16)

Troubleshooting – Against

• $10 win and place #9 Flying Mohawk ($20) 
• 20-cent superfecta 3,9 with 2,3,6,9 with 2,3,6,9 with all ($19.20)

Troubleshooting made his turf debut in his sophomore bow in April and has raced solely on the lawn since. By the fantastic Not This Time, the colt sports a 7-4-2-0 mark on the green and has never been better in advance of this tussle. A game winner of the Bryan Station S. (G3) at Keeneland last time out, the Donamire homebred proved capable of handling two turns most recently, and he is a nose shy of having compiled four wins in succession, as well. He will be forwardly placed from the break, with Tyler Gaffalione retaining the mount. 

#9 Flying Mohawk (8-1) never factored in the Kentucky Derby (G1) in his lone try running on the dirt, but the Whit Beckman charge has been freshened up and will return to his preferred turf surface. The bay son of Karakontie was a dominant winner in his previous two runs on the green, which includes a runaway score on this course in his lone prior effort on the Louisville lawn. He has been working steadily and will also have the blinkers back on, as well, and I expect a big run from the Kentucky-bred with Joe Ramos riding. 

Godolphin homebred #3 Montador (5-1) has been first or second in all five runs in his lifetime and was last seen cruising past allowance foes on this course on Nov. 2. The Nyquist colt from the Stidham shedrow has tactical speed combined with a nice turn of foot, and he has really thrived since stretching out in distance three back. Luis Saez will guide the contender. 

King’s Plate star #6 Mansetti (6-1) has never run on the grass, but has to be given a look in his Churchill bow for Kevin Attard. The Collected colt has finished in the top two in five of his last six outings in total, and he has the pedigree to like the grass for sure. He’s a four-time stakes winner with a versatile running style that translates to multiple distances, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he were a major player in the tilt inside the final furlong. Regular rider Pietro Moran comes in to pilot the colt.