Breeders' Cup 2023: Pick 3 play on the Turf, Classic, and Turf Sprint

November 3rd, 2023

The general rule of thumb when betting multi-race wagers is to play only those sequences in which your opinions are most firm in at least one of the legs. That's the approach I'm taking for one of my Pick 3 plays on Saturday's Breeders' Cup card, hoping I can knock off both the favorite and probable second choice with a single in the first leg.

Race 8 — Breeders' Cup Turf (G1)

As I've mentioned elsewhere throughout the week, #11 King of Steel (4-1) is my pick to topple fellow European raiders Auguste Rodin and Mostahdaf. Although the two-week turnaround following a hard-fought win in the Champion (G1) is a concern, this physically-imposing colt should have the constitution to handle it well.

King of Steel hasn't run a bad race all season, which can not be said of the quirky Auguste Rodin. Although the latter has beaten King of Steel in two of their three meetings, I felt circumstances worked against King of Steel in both, and he was hardly embarrassed when only a half-length behind that rival in the Epsom Derby (G1) and a mere length in the Irish Champion (G1).

King of Steel is the presumed value and at his best can outstay Mostahdaf, who has yet to win beyond 1 1/4 miles on turf.

Race 9 — Breeders' Cup Classic (G1)

I'll refer readers to my Classic thoughts posted earlier this week on the two-day Breeders' Cup Doubles. Believing the Whitney (G1) to have been the fastest Classic prep, I'll be using both #3 White Abarrio (4-1) and #2 Zandon (12-1), who ran one-two in that Saratoga fixture. White Abarrio hasn't run since, but Zandon flattered the form impressively in the Woodward (G2) and appears to be coming into this race with the wind to his back.

Race 10 — Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1)

The filly #9 Roses for Debra (12-1) remains a longshot I'm intrigued by this weekend and about whom I provided extended thoughts earlier. But #10 Motorious (5-1) is a logical inclusion as the best turf sprinter on this circuit, though he has yet to try this specific five-furlong course. All of his prior Santa Anita success has been down the hillside going longer, but his Del Mar form would suffice in this spot.

$4 Pick 3 ticket: 11 with 2,3 with 9,10 = $16