2026 Breeders’ Cup: Betting the Friday Pick 5

Five two-year-old races will be offered, and the Pick 5 on Breeders’ Cup Friday has been lucrative, with an average payout of $10,155 over the last three years.

Favorites prevail every year, with Ted Noffey and Gstaad winning the final two legs at short odds to complete a $9,458 Pick 5 payout in 2025, but longshot winners provide a significant boost on competitive days with large fields.

I have handicapped the 2026 sequence at Keeneland and will lean on a pair of singles in the following $50 Pick 5 wager.

Breeders’ Cup Friday Pick 5 Wager (Races 6-10)

• 50-cent ticket: 1,3,4,5 with 2,3,4,8,11 with 9 with 5 with 2,3,4,11,14 ($50)

Race 6: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1), 2:55 p.m. ET

A good second to Sun Goddess last out, Group 2 winner #3 Libertango (5-2) is listed as a slight favorite on the morning line but may generate more support than early odds suggest. Bettors may elect to take a stand for or against the English-based filly, but I have stronger opinions later in the sequence and will include the probable favorite with three others.

#4 Brickyard Belle (3-1), one of only three American-based runners in the main body of the 12-horse field, is a contender for Miguel Clement, and #1 Moonrise (12-1) and #5 Mussab (15-1) have the credentials to factor at better odds.

Race 7: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), 3:35 p.m.

I will take on the expected top two choices. Emphatic, a wire-to-wire Alcibiades (G1) winner, must work out a trip from the outside and has a lot to her inside. And I’m against Miss Monica off the shelf; freshening up two-year-olds off summer sprint races at Del Mar or Saratoga has never produced a Juvenile or Juvenile Fillies winner.

Top choice #11 Voyager (12-1) owns dirt form, finishing second in the Schuylerville, and her recent turf races may move her up. The early/presser exits a sharp score in the Natalma (G1) at Woodbine, running more than a half-second faster than males in the Summer (G1) the same afternoon. Oak Leaf (G2) winner #2 Domain Expansion (6-1), last-out maiden winner #3 Foxiest (15-1), Frizette (G1) runner-up #4 Rum Twist (15-1), and Pocahontas (G3) winner #8 Manuka Honey (10-1) are also on the ticket.

Race 8: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), 4:15 p.m.

Aidan O’Brien has trained a co-record 21 Breeders’ Cup race winners and is responsible for top contenders in nearly every Breeders’ Cup turf race. He’s been asked repeatedly about his 10-horse contingent and has consistently named #9 Sun Goddess (6-5) as his top win contender. She appears special and will look to join Arazi and Johnnesburg as four-time Grade/Group-1-winning two-year-olds from Europe who won Breeders’ Cup races.

Race 9: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), 4:55 p.m.

Unbeaten from four starts, #5 Hughes (even-money) is a classy sort with speed, and I don’t envision any of his six rivals wanting to get into an early slugfest with him. Flavien Prat will take advantage with a projected cushy front-end trip. Hughes stretched to two turns with his best performance yet, generating a 108 Brisnet Speed rating for a six-length win in the American Pharoah (G1) earlier this month, and the bay colt looks poised to deliver a record-extending seventh Juvenile win to Bob Baffert.

Race 10: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), 5:35 p.m.

Little separates the top contenders in the one-mile turf affair, and I will take on a pair of projected short-priced runners, How’s Al Today and Folsom Blues, while spreading five-deep. #4 Haffner (8-1), who showed an affinity for quicker ground when nicely capturing the Royal Lodge (G2) last out, drew well toward the inside and gets top billing. He’s one of four for Aidan O’Brien, who has won the last four editions of the Juvenile Turf and a record eight overall, and I will include stablemates #3 Florida Bay (20-1), #11 Man’s Best Friend (15-1), and #14 Great Barrier Reef (4-1). #2 Avec Toi (10-1), who adds blinkers and Prat, is also part of the mix.