2026 Breeders' Cup Trainer and Jockey Trends

When evaluating trainer and jockey statistics for the 2026 Breeders’ Cup, consider two things: who has succeeded at the Breeders’ Cup and who has succeeded at Keeneland.

The best jockeys and trainers generally succeed regardless of venue. But some have a particular affinity for tracks they know well – for example, many people know that jockey Calvin Borel excelled at Churchill Downs, and that trainers Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown are extremely successful at Saratoga.

In addition, there are always factors unique to a given year that have an impact. So this assessment will consider a number of things to look out for.

Ortiz absent, Moore returns

With 23 victories from 122 rides, Irad Ortiz Jr. has been quickly closing in on Mike Smith’s all-time Breeders’ Cup record of 27 victories. Last year he won three of the 14 races. He’s also the most successful rider at Keeneland’s three Breeders’ Cups, with six victories. But to compound a down year for him, he broke his ankle last week and will miss the annual showcase. It means a few horses won’t have their regular rider, most notably the leading turf miler Rhetorical and last year’s Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1) winner Shisospicy.

However, the second-most successful Keeneland Breeders’ Cup rider, Ryan Moore (5 wins), is back this year after injury kept him away last year. In addition to seeking to add to his 16 Breeders’ Cup victories, he’s also in a tight race for the title of Longines World’s Best Jockey, given by the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities to the most successful rider in the world’s top 100 Grade/Group 1 races. A four-time winner of that award, Moore is narrowly ahead of Australia-based New Zealander James McDonald, the winner in three of the past four years, and will look for a boost at Keeneland. 

Moore’s best chances in 2026 are Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) favorite Sun Goddess, Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) third favorite Great Barrier Reef, and Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) second fancy Precise.

Cox looks to bounce back when it matters

Brad Cox has been a dominant figure at Keeneland fall meets in recent years, winning the trainer title by wins every year from 2020 to 2025. He’s also the leading money-earner among trainers this year. But 2026 at the Keeneland fall meet has been a down period for him. This year, he recorded three wins from 42 starts, a low strike rate by his standards of 7.1%. Last year he won 12 of 43, or 27.9%. 

He also has a great record at Keeneland Breeders’ Cup meets, where he has won five races. He has six runners in the big races this weekend, the best of which looks to be Further Ado in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1).

Gaffalione, Saez hope for a Keeneland boost

Tyler Gaffalione has been one of the leading riders in the United States for a number of years. To date, he’s had a good 2026, currently fourth on the earnings list with his mounts earning more than $24 million. But the Breeders’ Cup hasn’t always been the best for him; to date, he has two victories from 71 mounts.

However, both of those victories came when the Breeders’ Cup was last at Keeneland in 2022. In addition, he’s just become the champion rider with 22 victories at the 2026 fall meet, so he should have some confidence heading into the 2026 edition. He has 10 mounts in Breeders’ Cup races, the best of which are Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) favorite Emphatic and Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) third favorite Splendora.

Another rider who’d like a Breeders’ Cup record is Luis Saez, who’s won one race from 75 mounts. But he also comes into this meet in form, finishing second at the Keeneland fall meet with 21 wins. He has 10 potential Breeders’ Cup rides (though two are on the also-eligible list), though only 9-2 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) chance Knightsbridge is at less than 10-1 on the morning line.

Balding looks to extend his best-ever season to U.S.

English horseman Andrew Balding, from a long line of trainers, has been a successful trainer for many years, but no season has been anything like 2026. He lies second on the British trainers’ premiership, less than $220,000 behind Aidan O’Brien, and has a reasonable chance to pass the Coolmore maestro given that he is unlikely to have runners in England over the winter months.

His season has included high-level successes with Item, Kalpana, and especially Blue Bolt, the short-priced favorite in the Filly and Mare Turf. He also starts Moonrise, who is not without a chance in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1), and the less-fancied Scomessa Sicura in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Will the training tie be broken?

Currently, we have a tie for the most successful Breeders’ Cup trainer in terms of wins. Aidan O’Brien held the lead going into last year, but with two victories to O’Brien’s one, Bob Baffert drew level, and both now have 21 wins. O’Brien has 10 runners over from Ireland; several are leading chances, with Sun Goddess almost seen as a banker in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Baffert has six horses set to start, but five of them are at single-figure odds, so he has a good chance of adding to his total.

Coming up on them fast is Chad Brown, whose win total is now 19; the scratchings of Gaudreau and Zulu Kingdom leave him with four runners, but Ways and Means (Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint [G1]), Kathrynmarisa (Filly & Mare Turf) and Fully Subscribed (Distaff) are all well fancied.

The Breeders’ Cup strike rate king, Charlie Appleby, is also set to make his mark again. No one comes close to his winning strike rate of 12 wins from 32 starts (37.5%); he has just two runners, but one, Notable Speech (Breeders' Cup Mile [G1]), is likely to be a short-priced favorite. He’s no stranger to Breeders’ Cup success at Keeneland, having won three times in 2022.