Betting the 2026 Breeders' Cup All-Turf Pick 4

In recent years, the All-Turf Pick 4 payouts on Breeders’ Cup Saturday have been spectacular. In 2024, the wager returned more than $3,600, while last year’s sequence was more than $6,200 after several longshots killed many tickets.

I’ll take my annual swing at the 50-cent minimum wager with the following ticket for the 2026 Breeders' Cup All-Turf Pick 4 at Keeneland:

Wager

• 50-cent ticket: 1,6,7,11 with 5,12 with 8 with 10,13 ($8)

Race 5: Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1), 1:48 p.m. ET

A case can be made for many of these, but the preponderance of speed elements makes me focus a bit more on those with closing kicks. 

Europeans have become more competitive this decade than in the race's early years, and #7 Commanche Brave (3-1) is the best of them. He’s had an excellent campaign, including back-to-back Group 1 wins in the July Cup and Flying Five.

#6 Yellow Card (8-1) has not been seen since winning the Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G1) in May, and before that was a troubled second in the Shakertown (G2) over this course and distance. Freshness perhaps an asset, or maybe not.

Of those with early foot, #11 Joe Shiesty (10-1) breaks outside most of the other speed and has been a gem of consistency this season, especially over this course. #1 John the Beer Man (20-1) can be forgiven for his flop over the unique Kentucky Downs layout last time but drew the tough 1 post here. Has run well from off the pace over this course before, albeit in a two-turn maiden 2 1/2 years ago.

Race 7: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1), 3:04 p.m. ET

As much as I’d like to fade morning line favorite #12 Blue Bolt (5-2) in her first attempt beyond a mile, her class might simply be too much for the rest to overcome. Although she essentially beat the same overmatched group of fillies all season in a variety of Group 1s, she seemingly hasn’t lost a step doing so.

#5 Kathynmarissa (5-1), America’s best older turf mare, also warrants inclusion, too. Has been darn near unstoppable since joining the Chad Brown barn more than a year ago, and the price will be right.

Race 9: Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1), 4:20 p.m. ET

The Mile didn’t come up quite as deep as it might have this year, and I essentially see this as a rematch between the Woodbine Mile (G1) one-two, #8 Notable Speech (7-5) and Deterministic. Barring another bad trip like the one he had over this course in April, I think Notable Speech will prove too strong again and become the latest back-to-back winner of this race.

Race 11: Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1), 5:36 p.m. ET

Although more of a soft-ground specialist, #13 Bay City Roller (5-1) has done well enough on faster ground of late to be the horse to beat. Twice second to Daryz and third to Ombudsman and Calandagan in the Champion (G1), his recent company lines stand out here. That said, this is his fourth start in the span of eight weeks, and the potential fear is that the effects of unnecessarily wheeling back in the Champion two weeks ago might have emptied the tank too much for this.

#10 Tiffany (10-1), although truly not top class in Europe, is conveniently in the best form of her career as it begins to wind down. Victorious in a modest Group 1 in Germany over the summer, she followed up with a solid win in the Kentucky Turf Cup (G1), beating last year’s Turf upsetter Ethical Diamond, who reopposes. This is a sterner task, but she’s worthy of inclusion as a price in the event if she hits another high mark.