Breeders' Cup bettors find valuable help from TwinSpires Analysts

At the Churchill Downs/TwinSpires stable of websites, providing players with good information is one of our key performance indicators.

Putting the right things in front of bettors heading into a huge occasion like the Breeders’ Cup is therefore very important, and it was with some satisfaction that we provided some great help for the championship races.

Our expert international analyst, Kellie Reilly, put a lot of time into analyzing the foreign raiders, and anyone who considered her work had the chance to make a handy profit.

In particular, she singled out the Irish filly Balantina as one to watch in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, selecting the 20-1 shot to win in the TwinSpires Betting Guide even before the scratch of pre-post favorite Precise.

“If you forgive Balantina’s subpar effort in mitigating circumstances last out, the Donnacha O’Brien filly fits very well in this spot”, Kellie said in the Under the Radar Internationals piece. 

Kellie also tipped the exacta in the Classic, and she was a particular fan of Forever Young, noting that he was probably better prepared this year than in 2024, when he followed a trip to the Middle East with two journeys to the US.

“This year he didn’t have to stay abroad as long; he went home after Dubai,” she said in the Jason Beem podcast. “He had a shorter time abroad, plus he has the natural maturity of a four-year-old, and his win in Japan … was the ideal prep to get him back psychologically.”

For good measure, Kellie also tipped the Scylla-Nitrogen exacta in the Distaff.

Jennifer Kelly’s turf trends piece noted no horse that raced at Kentucky Downs had followed with a Breeders’ Cup win that year, a trend that continued in 2025, and that late runners dominate on turf, a trend that applied to all but the turf sprint races.

Jennifer also noted that favorites had a 26% strike rate in BC turf races. This continued in 2025, with Gstaad and Notable Speech the only favorites to win in the seven turf races.

Alastair Bull’s trainers and jockeys trends piece noted the superb Breeders’ Cup strike rate of trainer Charlie Appleby, who had recorded 11 wins and eight other top-four placings previously. Appleby’s sole victory (Notable Speech) from five starters meant his strike rate was actually lower than usual. Still, three of his other runners (Rebel’s Romance, El Cordobes, and Diamond Rain) ran in the top three. As Alastair said, “Leave his runners out at your peril.”

This piece also noted the great record at Breeders’ Cups of jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., who added another three victories to the 20 he’d already scored, and noted that Rebel’s Romance may benefit from not contesting the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe when considering his chances of beating Minnie Hauk.

This view was reinforced in the TwinSpires Deep Dive Handicapping Show by Travis Stone when assessing Minnie Hauk’s chances of rebounding from her energy-sapping Arc second.

“That was a very stiff run in the Arc. It was a deep, tiring surface; they went toe-to-toe and dueled right to the wire… and I wonder, now you put her on a plane, ship her around the world, and now you face some of the best again on an unfamiliar course with some scenarios, that maybe works against her. I don’t know if I really want to totally take a short, short price.”

Travis also thought Forever Young was “worth it if he starts at 3-1 or 7-2”. He eventually started at 7-2.

In the same show, Eddie Olczyk thought El Cordobes was a good option for exotics in the Turf, and that he was “all over” Notable Speech in the Mile.

Keeler Johnson named several good horses to watch in his under-the-radar contenders piece, none more so than 58-1 Juvenile Turf runner-up Stark Contrast. “Stark Contrast’s strong finishing speed and home-court advantage should help him outrun his odds,” he said.