British Spot Plays: Newmarket July 12

The more important races of the third and final day of Newmarket's July Festival on Saturday are, unusually for a British card, nearer the tail end of the program. That's good news for American audiences, who then don't have as long to wait before the major domestic action kicks off at Saratoga.

After a couple of placings on Thursday's card, including a major missed opportunity, my British bankroll for the 2025 flat season stands at $361.80 from an original starting point of $500. I will wager 5% of the outstanding balance to win on the following selections.

Race 5: Superlative (G2), 11 a.m. ET

The Coolmore-owned Italy will be an odds-on choice to land this seven-furlong test for two-year-olds, thus following in the hoof steps of City of Troy, who won this impressively two years ago for the same connections and later landed the Epsom Derby (G1), among other races.

However, Godolphin has been the more dominant outfit when it comes to the recent history of the Superlative, winning three of the last five editions and five overall since 2016. They have two here, including consensus second choice #5 Saba Desert (4-1).

While Italy undoubtedly caught the eye in his winning debut, so did Saba Desert in a different way. Over this distance in a June 13 maiden at Sandown, Saba Desert appeared to need only mild encouragement to win by a measured three parts of a length. Jockey Will Buick, who won three in a row for Godolphin on Thursday's card and another three on Friday, didn't appear to resort to his stick at all, and the colt showed few signs of immaturity for his age. 

If you have to find fault, the final time of more than 1:35 was rather pedestrian for the distance, given the ground was rated "good," but perhaps was a function of the early pace.

A son of Dubawi whose second dam is the classic-winning Gossamer (herself a full sister to Breeders' Cup Mile [G1] winner Barathea), Saba Desert looks a viable alternative to Italy.

Race 6: July Cup (G1), 11:35 a.m. ET

The premier six-furlong sprint of the summer offers a clash of the generations and a wide-open field of 15. Although no horse older than six has won this in nearly 90 years (then again, how many top-class horses are running at that age?), I'm somewhat intrigued by one of the field's elder statesmen.

#6 Run to Freedom (60-1) is justifiably a big price. Aside from a couple of surprise Group 1 placings during his long career, the son of 2015 July Cup winner Muhaarar has never won above Listed level. However, he does seem to have inherited an affinity for Newmarket's July Course from his father, overperforming on it relative to his record elsewhere.

Run to Freedom's record at Newmarket reads 5-1-1-0, but all of the success he's had has been on the July Course and not over the Rowley Mile Course. The second-place finish actually came in the 2023 edition of the July Cup, so he does have likeable experience at this level over this strip.

Run to Freedom's season debut, a fourth in the April 16 Abernant (G3), was respectable, given he hadn't run since the previous year's edition of the race and was undoubtedly in need of a good blow. And I'm willing to draw a line through his uncompetitive run last out in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee (G1) at Royal Ascot, a race he's finished up the field now three times. If Run to Freedom has one more big run in him at this level, it's likely to be at this locale.