Churchill Downs Track Update for Nov. 16

November 16th, 2021

The fall meet at Churchill Downs is in full swing: a full two weeks in, with another two weeks of racing remaining. This week gets underway on Wednesday, and reaches its crescendo with the Chilukki (G3) on Saturday, November 20. There will be plenty of great betting opportunities, though, so let's track the trends so far!


It is head-and-head at the top of the standings, with Tyler Gaffalione (13-for-54, 24%) and Mitchell Murrill (13-for-53, 25%) tied at the top of the standings. And, Twitter can rest assured that #BetMitchGetRich is still holding true; Murrill's ROI is +21% for the meet, compared to Gaffalione's -19%. Two other jockeys are already north of ten wins on the meet as well: Brian Hernandez, Jr. (11-for-47, 23%, +27% ROI) and Rafael Bejarano (10-for-48, 21% +62% ROI).

Murrill has been doing his best work in dirt sprints: he is 11-for-33 (33%) at one turn on the main, with a hefty +55% ROI. Other riders to watch in dirt sprints include Hernandez (6-for-23, 26%, +90% ROI), Bejarano (5-for-28, 18%, 76% ROI), and Reylu Gutierrez (3-for-9, 33%, 130% ROI).

In routes, Bejarano, Hernandez, Joe Talamo, and James Graham are all tied with five wins. But, just two have a positive return so far in such races: Bejarano (5-for-20, 25%, +43% ROI) and Talamo (5-for-20, 25%, +97% ROI).


Steve Asmussen (10-for-41, 24%, +6% ROI) has jumped out to an early lead in the trainer standings this fall at Churchill, four clear of Brad Cox (6-for-31, 19%, -46%) and Chris Hartman (6-for-19, 32%, +26% ROI). Asmussen's seven wins at one turn (7-for-23, 30%, +45% ROI) lead all trainers; in route races, Ken McPeek (4-for-15, 27%, -7% ROI) leads the early returns at Churchill Downs.

When looking for price plays, Randy Morse stands out. Often under the radar, he is currently 5-for-11 (45%) with a +299% ROI; his strong returns stretch across both routes and sprints. In sprints, specifically, Dallas Stewart (3-for-8, 38%, +240% ROI) is also sending home some longshots worth watching.

At a Glance

For more trends and information from tracks all over North America, read the latest At a Glance reports, only on Brisnet!