Dreaming of catching Reilly in Kentucky Derby Dream Bet

April 9th, 2016

In case you missed it, Kellie Reilly distanced herself from the pack last week, tabbing Oscar Nominated to win the Spiral Stakes, but with five races to go there's still some hope of catching her. After all, any of us is just a 25-to-1 shot away, too, right? (For Kellie's picks this week, click here).

Unfortunately, I don't know that the 25-to-1 shot will come this week. While I don't love the morning line favorites in the three races, I'm not enamored enough with any bombs to put $15 win-place on them, either. So we'll play small ball for this week, hope to pick up some "points", and play accordingly in next week's final two races.


Of the three morning line favorites in the Kentucky Derby Championship Races, Shagaf in the Wood Memorial is my least likely winner. He's OK, but not good enough to take the short price. I prefer Matt King Coal or Outwork, and had a tough time deciding between the two, but land on Matt King Coal for this, as I think he can control the race.


From the last likely favorite to the most likely, I do like Zulu in this spot, but I can't take him as the win-place value here. I'll stay in the barn, though, and play Donegal Moon thinking he'll be higher than his 5-to-1 morning line. I share people's dubiousness of Parx figures, and as gaudy as Donegal Moon's was from his last race near Philadelphia, part of the reason I'm willing to play him back here is that I liked him in his previous Aqueduct races. So maybe he just figured it out? At 8-to-1 I'll find out.


I really liked what I saw out of the San Felipe. Perhaps that's confirmation bias since I picked Exaggerator and felt like both Danzing Candy and Mor Spirit beat him on the square, but it was a good race, and so is this one with the top three right back plus some others looking to step up in a big way. I think that step is too big, and the San Felipe trifecta are the ones I want here with a heavy lean toward Danzing Candy, who I could see being my Kentucky Derby pick if Nyquist takes too much money.

That's my three for today. Who do ya got?