Dubai Carnival beads: Frosted’s the icing on Godolphin cake

Strictly speaking, Frosted was the substantive cake on Godolphin’s four-win night at Meydan Thursday. But you could trot out the old icing-on-the-cake reference, aside from the pun on his name, to underscore just how flashy he was in his prep for the Dubai World Cup (G1).

As detailed in my recap of Frosted’s track record-setting romp in the Maktoum Challenge Round 2 (G2), the Kiaran McLaughlin shipper was much the best on paper, and ran right up to his billing. We didn’t learn a great deal here, other than the reassurance that the Tapit colt can translate his high-class American form to a distant clime. And he doesn’t absolutely require Joel Rosario in the saddle either; Godolphin rider William Buick was just fine, Frosted said.

The most encouraging aspect for his World Cup bid is how he finished: Frosted surged into a different set of gears at the top of the stretch and extended his margin to five lengths. The farther they went, the stronger he looked, while Buick had him in hand. This was reminiscent of the Frosted we saw in the Pennsylvania Derby (G2).

His pummeled foes had no compelling excuses; they were simply outclassed. My first reaction to Special Fighter’s poor sixth was to blame his tough trip posted out wide, and it’s true that he might have been closer to a placing with a more favorable passage through the race. But an important part of that involved the pace, which was faster at every stage than in his track record over this same trip January 21. And it promises to be faster in the World Cup. Special Fighter could still be one of those sneaky Carnival horses who can crash the bottom rungs of the World Cup exotics, but he’ll need to show more in Maktoum Round 3 (G1) on Super Saturday.

 

Mooting Mubtaahij: After finishing only fifth in his comeback in the Firebreak (G3), Mubtaahij left his fans with a letdown and his detractors with an occasion for schadenfreude.

Trainer Mike de Kock leaped to his pupil’s defense on his website:

All I can say is, please relax! Mubtaahij is being prepared for the Dubai World Cup, a race I believe he can win. What happens between now and 26 March is irrelevant!

I said before the Firebreak Stakes this week that Mubtaahij was around 80-85% fit and that this would be a stepping stone to bigger things. We are very happy with the way he ran. Even if he was 100% wound up tonight, he wouldn’t have beaten the winner (the McLaughlin-trained Confrontation), who is a well-performed Graded miler from the US. This was a field of quality runners, mostly sprinter-milers. The fourth horse (Le Bernardin) won a Gr2 mile here two weeks ago.

While Mubtaahij surely needed this one to bring him on, I found a couple of slightly concerning things: he came under pressure to maintain his position earlier than expected, and he shortened stride noticeably late. Both could be natural indicators of rustiness, but as I pointed out in Thursday’s recap, a couple of other de Kock runners didn’t run up to their best. I was curious whether something might come to light over the ensuing days. No news is apparently good news, however, so Mubtaahij will get the chance to move forward next time in Maktoum Round 3.

A Watershed moment? While Firebreak winner Confrontation enjoyed the ideal trip – parked on the inside tracking a contested pace before swinging out to run them down – stablemate Watershed started slowly and covered extra ground (almost 23 feet, according to Trakus). Yet Watershed finished fast to miss second in a photo, nearly giving McLaughlin the exacta. The lightly raced son of Bernardini will notch a graded/group stakes if he can take his lessons to heart (and mind).

Confrontation certainly deserved this breakthrough, having placed second to Tonalist and Liam’s Map when last seen over the summer for Barclay Tagg. But will he have more scope for improvement second time out for Godolphin? I’m not sure if a repeat of this effort would land the Godolphin Mile (G2).

Fourth-placer Le Bernardin had shaped as this year’s version of Tamarkuz, who swept the 2015 Carnival’s Godolphin Mile preps en route to victory on World Cup night. Although Le Bernardin failed, remember that he wasn’t originally supposed to be in the Firebreak at all. The plan was to skip this one and wait for Super Saturday. Perhaps we should imagine that he stayed in Ali Rashid al Raihe’s yard Thursday and not hold this against him.