Monday Morning Message with Jason Beem for Feb. 2, 2026

Jason discusses Nearly's win in the Holy Bull (G3) and the Derby trail in its early stages. 

A good Monday morning to you all! Hope everyone had a good weekend and hope that some warmth comes your way. 

I know when it’s down in the 30s here in Tampa that it’s really cold everywhere else. We had probably our smallest crowd of the season on Sunday, as it was cold and windy and just a tough day for an outside sport in Florida. Ironically, the Tampa Bay Lightning hockey team had their outdoor stadium game on Sunday night, and it’s one of the coldest nights we’ve had in recent memory. So lucky for them! 

The Holy Bull (G3) is always one of my favorite preps of the early season, and this year’s edition got hurt a little bit by the scratches that took it down to just a field of six. I thought visually watching the race live that Nearly ran a big race, and I know that the early speed figures assigned him a pretty big number for his efforts. He even went down to 10-1 in some Kentucky Derby (G1) future pools, so clearly a lot of people had the same impression I had. 

However, when I saw the chart and saw that last full quarter of 27.10 seconds, I got a little less excited about him. Now he deserved to be slowing down late after doing battle early on with Cannoneer through pretty honest fractions. That number just stuck out at me, but of course, there are lots of things to consider with looking at times in general – how the track was playing, how fast the early pace was, short stretch finish-line, and other things too. 

I also initially kind of thought about the big late close from Project Ace, who rallied from last to get up for third. But he was passing horses who were coming home remarkably slowly, so the fact he was closing into that slow of a final time kind of dampens that excitement as well. 

The Derby trail is kind of a war of attrition. First, horses have to stay on the trail with good effort, but they also have to avoid injury and just keep running. I feel like recency bias plays big in almost all things, including racing. But so often on the Derby trail, it's more potent. People ebb and flow each week as each new prep winner asserts himself. 

So Nearly will be the hot new thing for now. Next week is the Sam F. Davis S., and maybe that will jump someone else up the list. I feel like my first season here, Classic Causeway won that race and immediately became a contender for many. But by the time the Derby rolled around, he was an afterthought in the pools (and the race). The defection of Ted Noffey certainly left a void at the top, and there will be plenty of chances for someone else to jump up and grab the baton.  

I’m very curious what the connections of Solitude Dude end up doing with him. His win in the Swale S. this weekend makes him 3-for-3 with two stakes victories, all sprinting. But this win was at seven furlongs, and I wonder if maybe they don’t make an attempt at something along the Derby trail. Or maybe they’ll just target something like the Pat Day Mile (G2) or later in the season the Woody Stephens (G1) up at Saratoga. To me, he was the most visually impressive of the early season stakes races at Tampa, so I know I might be a bit biased, but I’m intrigued by him and his potential.  

Have a great week everyone!