Ghosts of Breeders' Cup Classics past

I probably need an intervention.

I’ve picked the favorite to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic in eight of the past 12 editions with just two wins to show from it (and in six of the past eight with just one win).

On the other hand, until the last two goose eggs (and four of the last five) picking favorites such as Medaglia d’Oro and Bernardini still netted across-the-board profits when they finished second, and the two winning favorites Zenyatta and Ghostzapper also paid enough to place & show to cover an across-the-board bet (a big reason my ROI is best for place, then win-place, the win).

The summary line looks like this: 15-3-3-0-4. All three of my winners came 2001-2009, and it’s pretty incredible to think the win ROI was a robust 68.8% considering the relative soft strike rate (33.3%) and that two of the three winning picks (Ghostzapper & Zenyatta) were favored.

In the 15 years I’ve handicapped the Breeders’ Cup World Championships seriously, I’ve picked eight favorites, including two of the three who actually won—the aforementioned Ghostzapper and Zenyatta with Saint Liam in 2005 the other winning favorite.

I’ve picked three foreign-based horses—Giant’s Causeway in 2000, Hold That Tiger in 2003, and Starcraft in 2005—and all lost, though the foreign-based Raven’s Pass did when in 2008 when I picked favored Curlin.

I don’t love going back to the chalkboard for this year’s Classic, and even though favorites haven’t been kind to me in recent years they’ve been kind enough over the long haul that I can’t pass up tabbing who I think is the best horse in the world right now. Still, if Shared Belief gets the job done he’ll do so as the lowest-priced since the recently deceased Cigar won at 7-to-10 in 1995 and the first favorite since Zenyatta in 2009.

The other thing worth pointing out is "top pick" doesn't really indicate how I bet the race, but the Breeders' Cup (especially the Classic) is one of those events (along with Triple Crown races such as the Kentucky Derby) that requires a singular pick. People want to know who will win, and explaining who your As and Bs are is a sure way to glaze a casual fan's eyes. As Shania Twain might sing, "OK, so you have a Pick 4 strategy; that don't impress me much."

For the record, though, I've gone BBCAACBBACBABX in the past 15 Classics. 

Year:	Pick:	finish:	Win	Place	Show	WPS	WP	WS	PS	winner:	odds:
2014	Shared Belief
2013	Game On Dude	9th	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	Mucho Macho Man	4.00
2012	Game On Dude	7th	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	Fort Larned	9.40
2011	Havre de Grace	4th	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	Drosselmeyer	14.80
2010	Lookin At Lucky	4th	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	Blame	5.20
2009	Zenyatta	1st	$7.60	$5.60	$3.80	$17.00	$13.20	$11.40	$9.40	Zenyatta	2.80
2008	Curlin	4th	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	Raven's Pass	13.50
2007	Street Sense	4th	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	Curlin	4.40
2006	Bernardini	2nd	$0.00	$3.40	$3.00	$6.40	$3.40	$3.00	$6.40	Invasor	6.70
2005	Starcraft	7th	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	Saint Liam	2.40
2004	Ghostzapper	1st	$7.00	$4.00	$3.60	$14.60	$11.00	$10.60	$7.60	Ghostzapper	2.50
2003	Hold That Tiger	5th	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	Pleasantly Perfect	14.20
2002	Medaglia d'Oro	2nd	$0.00	$4.60	$3.80	$8.40	$4.60	$3.80	$8.40	Volponi	43.50
2001	Tiznow	1st	$15.80	$7.20	$5.60	$28.60	$23.00	$21.40	$12.80	Tiznow	6.90
2000	Giant's Causeway	2nd	$0.00	$7.80	$5.20	$13.00	$7.80	$5.20	$13.00	Tiznow	9.20
1999	Lemon Drop Kid	6th	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	Cat Thief	19.60
	italics = favorite		$30.40	$32.60	$25.00	$88.00	$63.00	$55.40	$57.60		10.61
		ROI:	$1.01	$1.09	$0.83	$0.98	$1.05	$0.92	$0.96