Hanson, Scully handicap Pool 2 of 2026 Kentucky Derby Future Wager
Paladin (outside) in his debut at Aqueduct (Photo by Coglianese Photos)
November 26th, 2025
In advance of this week's second pool of the 2026 Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW), James Scully and Vance Hanson have looked over the list of 40 for an individual and a joint selection to back.
James Scully: Bet down to favoritism in his six-furlong debut at Keeneland, #7 Commandment (99-1) failed to break sharply in a 12-horse field, racing in 11th after the opening quarter-mile, and couldn’t make up enough ground to catch the winner, the promising Local Knowledge from the Todd Pletcher barn, and next-out stakes winner Galatin in third.
Those two look like talented sprint/middle-distance types at this early stage, but Commandment is built for longer distances and showed the improvement desired from an up-and-coming juvenile when breaking his maiden smartly for Brad Cox next out, winning by 5+ lengths over seven furlongs at Churchill Downs.
By three-time Derby-winning sire Into Mischief and out of a mare by 2015 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Orb, Commandment displayed fine tactical speed and appears to have plenty of upside. He’s at Payson Park preparing for a serious three-year-old campaign.
Vance Hanson: The brilliantly named #29 Paladin (40-1) (a son of Gun Runner honoring the lead character in the classic TV and radio western "Have Gun -- Will Travel") has a profile similar to that of recently retired stablemate Sierra Leone, who narrowly lost the 2024 Derby.
In addition to sharing the same connections (Coolmore and Chad Brown) and sire, both kicked off their careers winning a one-mile maiden at Aqueduct. Paladin's, though, was achieved via disqualification, after he fell a head short of Renegade on Oct. 17.
Nonetheless, it was a solid first outing, which earned a 91 Brisnet Speed rating. It would be no surprise to see Paladin follow the Sierra Leone route and take in next week's 1 1/8-mile Remsen (G2). The $1.9 million yearling purchase should continue to get better with distance. And perhaps can exceed the successes Sierra Leone had on the Derby trail a couple of years ago.
Confessional wins at Keeneland (Photo by Coady Media)
Confessional wins at Keeneland (Photo by Coady Media)
Confessional wins at Keeneland (Photo by Coady Media)
Consensus selection: #8 Confessional (60-1) was a bit of a surprise maiden winner at Keeneland on Oct. 16.
Despite hailing from a stable that often gets bet in such races, the Brad Cox trainee was sent off at 12-1 but proceeded to prove the doubters wrong with an emphatic three-length win going seven furlongs (93 Brisnet Speed rating).
From a pedigree perspective, Confessional has the scope to improve even further, going a route of ground. His sire, Cox-trained two-time champion Essential Quality, was an unlucky fourth when favored in the 2021 Derby, and his broodmare sire is 2015 Triple Crown hero American Pharoah. It's highly likely we'll see Confessional emerge again soon, either at Fair Grounds or Oaklawn Park, perhaps in stakes company.
