Hanson, Scully handicap Pool 5 of Kentucky Derby Future Wager, Kentucky Oaks Future Wager

Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) will be offered this weekend, along with the lone Kentucky Oaks Future Wager (KOFW). Vance Hanson and James Scully will preview an individual and joint selection to back for both pools.

KDFW Pool 5

Vance Hanson: The results of the Risen Star (G2) perhaps were a true indicator of where #16 Golden Tempo (30-1) stands (and will stand) in the three-year-old pecking order. That is, a good colt but one several lengths inferior to a top player like Paladin, for example. On the other hand, we might see a different, perhaps faster, Golden Tempo in his final prep, most likely the Louisiana Derby (G2). Trainer Cherie DeVaux said after the Risen Star that the deep-closing, stoutly bred son of Curlin would subsequently sport blinkers, with the obvious intention of keeping him in closer contact with his rivals. If that indeed comes to fruition next week, and Golden Tempo does turn in a far more effective performance from a speed rating perspective, the price available to backers in this KDFW pool will be far above what might be available on Kentucky Derby Day itself.

James Scully: Listed at 12-1 at the Caesars Sportsbook in Las Vegas, #30 Renegade (20-1) may be overlooked in Pool 5. He hasn’t been seen since a convincing win in the Sam F. Davis S. on Feb. 7, registering a 97 Brisnet Speed Rating that is among the fastest performances by a three-year-old this year, and I love the 111 Late Pace Rating he earned in the comebacker. Renegade is built/bred for classic distances and appears to be training forwardly for Todd Pletcher. No final prep has been announced, but the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland seems likely.

Consensus selection: A smart maiden winner when stretching to two turns in mid-January, #29 Reagan’s Honor (25-1) continued to progress when facing entry-level allowance foes a month later, receiving a 96 Brisnet Speed Rating for a 6 3/4-length victory. Along with favorable numbers, the Cherie DeVaux-trained colt possesses speed, leading gate to wire in the last two outings, and will look to punch his Kentucky Derby ticket with a strong showing on the front end of the Blue Grass. 

Oaks Future Wager

Vance Hanson:  Although she’s had a couple of down days in six starts to date, #6 Counting Stars (20-1) has also had several strong ones. Indeed, her winning margins in her three victories have been four, four, and six lengths. She didn’t win her latest start, the Honeybee (G3), but on the plus side, it was a much-improved effort over her no-show in the Martha Washington S. and a very strong effort versus Explora, who appears to be among the top several Oaks betting choices at this stage. Counting Stars appears to be a filly on the upswing and should offer plenty of value in this pool.

James Scully: Added ground proved beneficial, but unfortunate circumstances plagued #29 Percy’s Bar (30-1) in her final two starts last season. She was much the best when stretching to two turns in the Alcibiades (G1), finishing first by nearly three lengths, but needlessly ducked in and interfered with a tiring rival in the stretch. The bay filly got away poorly from the gate in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) and was caught in tight quarters entering the stretch, bumping into the inner rail while rallying for third. Percy’s Bar has logged recent half-mile and five-furlong bullet works for Ben Colebrook. And while she figures to receive only one prep for the Kentucky Oaks, Thorpedo Anna (who was only stakes-placed as a juvenile) captured the 2024 edition after making her three-year-old opener in the Fantasy (G3) at Oaklawn Park.

Consensus selection: #22 Meaning (15-1) was aggressively spotted in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) last fall off a facile debut win going six furlongs. While she wasn’t quite good enough to make a splash, she nonetheless finished a creditable fourth against more experienced rivals. However, she took a big step forward in her season debut in the Feb. 8 Las Virgenes S. Not only did she win in fine style, but avenged her loss in the Breeders’ Cup by beating both Super Corredora and Explora. The former has not trained on, but Explora flattered Meaning with her own rebound victory in the Honeybee (G3). By Gun Runner, the Michael McCarthy-trained Meaning remains loaded with upside.