Harness Weekly Update: $49 winner leads H2W longshot parade
The TwinSpires Harness Blog Weekly Update covers our successes and failures from selected features, stakes, and the H2W (horses-to-watch list). H2W horses through the following Monday appear in the following week’s Update.
Thursday, Oct. 20
This week’s pair of Mohawk Miles featured a strong-paying third with Maple Leaf Bound ($9.90), while Dewy Deo (25-1) was slow, broke, and finished eighth.
Friday, Oct. 21
There were many exotic-wagering elements hitting the board in the six two-year-old Breeders Crown (BC) elims we covered at Mohawk. The sextet was ruled by the crowd’s top choices, but we managed to hit the board a few times with outsiders.
We had one win, a favorite, Charleston ($3.40, $2.30, $2.10).
Three of our contenders took place spots. Oh Well ($2.20, $2.10) was the only favorite to be beaten by a double-digit-paying winner; Mcseaside ($3.80, $2.30) settled a $10.70 exacta.
Thirds included Mambacita ($2.90), Kierkegaard K ($4.50), and Stockade Seelster ($2.60).
Off-the-board finishers were Crown (5-1), Zanatta (8-1), Spitfire Oversees (16-1), Silly Me Hanover (18-1), Caviart Davia (39-1), and Redwood Hanover (53-1).
Saturday, Oct. 22
Our first elim choices finished one-two with Joviality S ($2.60, $2.10, $2.10) a roaring winner and 32-1 Misswalner Fashion ($9.50, $5.60) completing the $15.50 exacta.
Fashion Schooner ($2.40, $2.10) was second to the favorite (Exacta $4.60). No triple for us, as Mon Cheval (51-1) broke and finished eighth, and Peyton Hanover (35-1) also did not make the final, finishing seventh.
A 7-1 beat our choice and the race favorite, Justice (6-5), who did not make the final when coming home seventh, and Keg Stand (46-1), who did make the final by finishing fourth.
A 28-1 shot stormed the field of a colt-trotting elim leaving bettors in shock. We were looking for a possible upset in one of the three remaining BC elims but this one never crossed our mind due to continued poor performances through the season. We took second with Branded By Lindy ($5.90, $4.50). Periculum (9-2) finished eighth.
Next, we backed a 10-1 shot, All About The Hunt, who was thoroughly disengaged through the mile, won by the fan favorite. And, our specific longshot call, Betterhavemymoney (35-1), in the last elim was simply no good, humping home seventh behind the fan favorite.
H2W LIST RESULTS
The H2W results list across-the-board prices. Exactas listed include a H2W horse finishing second to a race-favorite or if the first two finishers are H2W horses (an asterisk appears when both horses form a cold exotic combo; most base prices are $2). The note “OK” determines that prices are correct (even when a show price exceeds a place price or all prices are the same).
Please note that some results reflect horses racing after the blog posts (they appear the following week).
This week, there were 36 H2W horses (25% win-hit rate and a 42% ATB [across-the-board] hit). Horses with asterisks before their names were tweets @FrankCotolo. Follow for late choices.
Beach Blast, $49.80, $10.40, n/s, Monticello
Morrockin K, $31.40, $9.00, $6.60, Philly
Kenogami Rebel, $15.30, $6.80, $4.70, Mohawk
Youyupyup, $12.20, $5.40, $3.00, Meadows
Mason Blues, $10.80, $5.40, $3.40, Plainridge
Bluebird Dove, $6.80, $3.60, $2.40, Hoosier
Tantra Blue Chip, $4.00, $3.00, $2.40, Saratoga
Hundie, $4.40, $3.80, $2.60, Pocono
Sgt Papa Daddy, $3.10, $2.10, $2.10 OK, Vernon
Summer Chrome, $4.90, $2.70, Vernon
Sure Thing Herman, $2.40, $2.10, Hoosier
Racine Bell, $3.20, Mohawk
Wolftrax, $2.70, Saratoga
Maydaymaverickhope, $3.40, Freehold
Rockin Roger, $3.00, Freehold
NEWS & NOTES
Here’s advice and a reminder for bettors: Keep a list of H2W horses that lose their second time on the list (they only appear twice if they do not win). Our records show that many horses on the list twice win their third time out and do so with a strong win price. The best recent example is Monterey Jack. He lost both times while on the H2W but this week he won, paying $25.20. Sometimes the third times are the charms.
You will notice Beach Glass missing from the entries in the BC sophomore-colt pace division. As reported here a few weeks ago, he was scratched after a poor performance in a stakes. When examined he was sent to surgery and expected to be ready to race in the championships. His connections now think it best to stay on the sidelines since "things didn't progress as well as we'd hoped.”
Racing returns to the Meadowlands Racetrack on Friday, Nov. 4, with action every Friday and Saturday night with a 6:20 p.m. (ET) post time. The top two-year-old trotters and pacers take center stage on Nov. 12 for the Kindergarten Finals worth more than $1 million. There will also be a Celebration of Life ceremony for Dave Brower, who passed away at age 53 on Oct. 7.
Indulge in our column Alternative Actions at Harness Racing Update.