Hong Kong Preview: Keep You Warm a hot chance at Happy Valley

The much-improved #7 Keep You Warm looks capable of scoring a third successive victory when he contests the Class 2 Bruntsfield Handicap (1200m, or about six furlongs) at Happy Valley Nov. 24.

Keep You Warm was winless in his first 15 Hong Kong starts, and though he ran some good races, it didn’t look like he was going to make a huge impact.

That changed when he scored by 3 1/4 lengths over 1000m (about five furlongs) at Happy Valley Apr. 8, and he carried that form over to his first start in the 2020-21 season, scooting 2 1/4 lengths clear on the same course and distance Oct. 31.

Keep You Warm not only has to cope with a step up from Class 3 to Class 2 in this race, he’s also drawn the unfavorable gate 10 from the 1200m start. But he has shown blistering pace from the gate and ran well at 1200m before his winning run started.

In a strong Class 2 field, #2 Sight Success might be the toughest opponent for Keep You Warm. He has also won two straight and can be up near the pace from barrier seven. He should be in this for a long way.

If the pace is hot, #6 Scores of Fun could be one to finish over the top of the field. He won very well at his last start, and he has the advantage of the No. 1 gate and the services of Zac Purton.

#9 Harmony Fire does not know how to run a bad race and should be there again, while in an even field there are few horses that don’t look capable of figuring in the finish with a peak effort, so taking a number of options would be a good idea for multiples.

BEST PLAY

Happy Valley, Race 8, Nov. 24

• $6 win/$18 show: #7 Keep You Warm.
• 50c trifecta: 2, 7 with 2, 6, 7, 9 with 2, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12

BONUS PLAY – NEW ZEALAND

Otaki, Race 8, Nov. 24

$10 win/$20 show: #7 Dubai Diva: Second at group three level last start, and the horses around her all figured in the finish of the New Zealand One Thousand Guineas (G1) at their next start. That should be good enough form to win this.