Hong Kong: Selections for Happy Valley Dec. 17

Racing at Happy Valley begins at 6:30 a.m. ET. Selections and analysis by Luke Middlebrook.

Race 1: HERON HANDICAP

#4 Star Brose is trending the right way since sliding into the cellar grade and his latest run was excellent. He was taken well back over 1800m but finished exceptionally late into fifth. The rise to 2200m is an unknown, but as a lightly raced four-year-old still on the improve, he looks worth sticking with now that conditions begin to suit. #2 Storm Runner continues to knock on the door with three seconds from four runs this campaign and the return to 2200m looks a positive. #10 Super Hong Kong bounced back to form with a bold all-the-way win at this track and trip and while the query is whether he can repeat it, there is no doubting his affinity for the track and trip in a race full of question marks. #1 Perfect Pairing becomes more interesting back in Class 5 and his record at this track and trip demands respect.

Race 2: ROBIN HANDICAP

#3 Oriental Surprise is on the quick seven-day turnaround and his last run into sixth was better than it reads after leading. His stronger efforts have come when ridden quieter and those tactics will serve him well. #8 Modest Gentleman arrives off an unlucky third over 1200m at Sha Tin where he was badly held up at a crucial stage. A return to this track and trip, where his best form has been produced, brings him right into play and while the win drought is a concern, he looks worth another chance in a wide-open Class 5. #5 Noble Deluxe also backs up from that same race where he stuck on for third. With the right run he can feature again. #1 Island Breezes made a good impression in his first Class 5 attempt, recovering from a slow start to close nicely into fourth, and a cleaner getaway gives him scope to improve.

Race 3: ALBATROSS HANDICAP

#4 Flow Water Flow made an impression on debut, allowed to find his rhythm early before producing one of the quicker closing splits of the night. He should take a natural step forward second-up and is hard to oppose. #6 Denfield is trending the right way this campaign and arrives off a fifth-up second, beaten only a nose. He's more than capable off this mark and looks set to run another honest race. #10 Lucky Man is always a little tricky to catch given how he mixes his form, but efforts such as his third to Sunny Q three back and his last-start second to Fit For Beauty read well for a race of this nature. #1 Perfectday showed ability last season, a fast-finishing seventh on debut followed by a second-up win, and although he resumes after a break with only fair trials, his latest piece of work was a step forward.

Race 4: LARK HANDICAP

#5 Made For Life takes a sharp rise in trip, from 1200m at Sha Tin on debut to Happy Valley's extended mile, which looks odd on paper, but his debut fourth, grinding to the line like a horse wanting further, suggests it's the right move. #1 Top Time was beaten by circumstance last start, snagged back from a wide draw and forced to defy the race shape, finishing best of the rest in second. He's been building the right way all campaign with three placings from four runs, and that latest effort sets him up to go one better. #4 Fighting Machine has turned in a more encouraging trial since his last run and, now fifth-up and on his fourth run back in Class 4, has the foundation to rebound. #8 Smart City was only fair in eighth last start despite seeming to have his chance. His fourth-up profile says he's entitled to another look.

Race 5: THE HONG KONG GOLF CLUB CENTENARY CUP (HANDICAP)

#1 Northern Fire Ball drops back into Class 4 after finding Class 3 a touch beyond him and this shapes as a far more suitable assignment. Barrier 2 allows him to settle closer as seen in prior wins. #6 Thunder Prince looks poised to break through following the switch to Jamie Richards, placing in all three runs for the stable and now landing an ideal set-up from barrier 1 with Zac Purton engaged. #8 Loving Vibes comes through a solid 1000m form race where he finished third to Mr Desira and Bunta Baby, briefly held up late when blinkers were applied first time, and the step up to 1200m looks a clear positive. #2 King Oberon arrives in peak form off consecutive wins and while the weights continue to rise, he is doing nothing wrong and remains in the mix.

Race 6: SWIFTLET HANDICAP

#8 China Win looks ready to break through for a first win. Conditions suit far better here as he finally draws barrier 1 after a run of wide gates that forced negative tactics in his past three starts. Those efforts have still been sound and this shapes as his best opportunity yet. #2 Nearly Fine has been knocking on the door since the class drop and was excellent last time when flashing home for second from a wide draw over 2200m. The drop back in trip is ideal given he is a two-time winner at this course and distance. #7 Young Bravo remains untapped with just three race starts to his name and continues to improve with racing. He wasn't beaten far last time after being held up, and a quiet but encouraging trial catches the eye. #5 Double Win is flying since the switch to Manfred Man, posting back-to-back wins over longer trips.

Race 7: ALBATROSS HANDICAP

#6 Big Return has slid to a mark where he should now be able to win. His latest run, eased out to last before launching late into sixth, shows that he's close. The stable switch to Jamie Richards followed by a handy trial suggests he may find another gear here. #5 Run Run Smart caused an upset two back when leading throughout from a wide gate and his follow-up run was better than it looks on paper, trapped wide yet still within two lengths of the winner. With little obvious speed engaged, he maps to get things his own way. #9 Somelovefromabove finally put it together at his sixth attempt, producing a clearly improved performance relative to last season and shaping like a horse who has now worked out the caper. #4 The Perfect Match resumes and comes in off three straight placings which set him up well to give a good account.

Race 8: NIGHTJAR HANDICAP

#6 Love Together is a three-year-old trending the right way. He improved when switching to this track and trip second-up, closing to within half a length in second. He's ready to go one place better. #2 Eternal Fortune comes through that same race after underperforming as the well-backed odds-on favorite, but he raced far too keenly after being steadied mid-race and never traveled comfortably. He'll be a bigger price this time and his prior form says he deserves another chance. #12 Superb King was the hard-luck story of that event, held up badly late yet still finishing only a length and a half away, and with improvement to come he's right in the mix. #4 Blue Illusion caused a boilover at cricket-score odds to beat this group but now needs to show it wasn't a one-off.

Race 9: SEA EAGLE HANDICAP

#2 South Star is worth another look after an excusable seventh where circumstances were against him. Drawn widest, he was forced to be steadied early, raced too keenly, and never truly settled, yet still wasn't beaten far. He has since trialed well and with a smoother trip anticipated, he is well placed to rebound. #12 Mighty Steed looks a clear pace influence in a race lacking early speed and could enjoy a comfortable time in front. He did plenty right last start when overcoming barrier 12, leading and boxing on for third. #4 A Americ Te Specso draws nicely for a sweet run and is as honest as they come. He will be doing his best work late. #10 Fantastic Fun earned a pass mark back in Class 3, settling further back than ideal but finishing off well into fifth. Now that he has found his form at this trip, he looks capable of measuring up.