Hong Kong: Selections for Happy Valley Jan. 21

Racing at Happy Valley begins at 5:40 a.m. ET. Selections and analysis by Luke Middlebrook.

Race 1: KAM SHAN HANDICAP

#11 Macanese Master broke through at long odds last time after finally drawing a gate since joining the Me Tsui stable, and he looks capable of backing it up. He draws low again to land a soft run, and his trial between starts was impressive. #5 Robot Knight now gets the chance to bring his trial promise to race day for Manfred Man. Barrier 1 gives him every chance to settle where he needs to, and the visors go on after he trialed well in them, which can sharpen him up. #10 Noble Deluxe was used up early last time, and paid for it late, so the cleaner map from barrier 4 is the key swing factor. #6 Only U never got a clear crack at them when held up badly in the straight last start. He stays in the mix if the gaps come when it matters.

Race 2: SILVERMINE BAY HANDICAP

#4 Run Run Timing is racing well since switching to the Ricky Yiu yard, posting two placings from four, and he again ran well last time when finishing strongly into fourth after being slow away. He is knocking on the door in this grade, and the map may even work in his favour if a few key rivals are caught doing it tough. #6 Jolly Jumper stuck on well for fifth in a genuinely run race last time, beaten only half a length, and a softer run in transit here can see him right in the finish again. #1 Hailtothevictors needs a touch of luck from a wide draw, but he looks better placed back in trip, having run a slashing second two starts ago in a race of this nature. #8 Celestial Harmony has transferred to the Brett Crawford stable, and that change could spark a lift on race day.

Race 3: MARBLE HANDICAP

#8 Glaciated won well two back, then came back to this track and trip, but drew wide and was set a task. He still closed well into seventh, and barrier 2 puts him right in the race where he can bounce back to winning form. #10 Speedy Smartie has thrived since joining the Brett Crawford stable, winning twice and running second three times from six starts. The switch back to the all-weather looks a plus and he can go on with it. #9 Incredible Moment can find the lead here, and the all-weather may be exactly what he wants to give a bold sight. #6 Monta Frutta returned to form when fast-finishing runner-up to the impressive debut winner Supreme Sea. Barrier 11 is not ideal, but he can let down strongly late if the tempo is right.

Race 4: TIN CHAK HANDICAP

#1 Sword Point looks to be coming into form at the right time, back in class at a track and trip where he is two-from-two. Cheekpieces go back on, he has had a pleasing lead-in trial, and in a small field of six, he should be able to hold a handy position from barrier 1. #6 New Forest comes in on the lightest weight and shapes as the likely leader. If he controls the tempo, he is going to give them something to run down. #5 Talents Ambition gets back to his more effective trip, and the small field suits a horse like him, as his turn of foot can be a weapon when the race turns tactical. #3 Soleil Fighter reunites with Zac Purton, who knows him well, and he should be right in it again from an on-pace spot.

Race 5: MARBLE HANDICAP

#1 Supreme Sea is entitled to go on from that impressive debut win, but the big weight is the one knock at this stage of his career. He is a strong three-year-old, though, and barrier 3 gives him the same kind of setup as last time to land in the right spot again. #3 Mr Cool looks better suited back at 1200m. He still has not produced on race day this season what he has hinted at in trials, yet last start was a definite step forward, and he can keep building. #2 Vulcanus has the talent to figure in a race like this, but he cannot afford to give them too much of a start. Barrier 1 can help him hold a closer position, and he will be charging late. #12 Glory Cloud appeals more back on the all-weather, and he also had vet excuses last time, so he is capable of improving.

Race 6: PO SHEK WU HANDICAP

#6 Forever Folks needs to begin cleanly to give himself every chance, and the Zac Purton booking stands out. He is yet to win at this track and trip, but arrives off a fast-closing fourth over 1650m, and the all-weather is clearly his friend. #14 Foremost Teddy is flying. It took him 27 starts to get that first win, yet he has put two big-margin wins together since, and the class rise on a light weight still leaves him well in the mix. #11 Firefoot draws barrier 2 and can run a race. It is his first look at the all-weather, but his running style suggests it can suit. #2 Glorious Success will want the pace genuine. If they roll along up front, he can be the one punching through late.

Race 7: DIAMOND HILL HANDICAP

#6 Sight Dreamer found another way to win last start, making all and never giving them a look in, and a tidy trial since suggests he has held that form. From the inside gate, he can take up the running again, but he also has options if others want to press on. #4 Happy Universe did plenty right first-up from a wide draw, finishing strongly into second, and barrier 3 should allow him to settle closer to where he is most effective. It is his first try on Sha Tin's all-weather under race conditions, but his trial work on the surface has been solid. #8 California Star ran a strong fifth against the race shape behind Sight Dreamer last time, and Purton taking over is a plus. #5 Fashion Legend has barrier 11 to overcome, though his recent form measures up, and he can still feature with the right run.

Race 8: SHUI CHUEN O HANDICAP

#9 Blazing Wind gets a kinder setup after flashing home for third from barrier 11. He is still chasing his first Class 3 win, but his form has taken a genuine step forward on the all-weather, and he is the one to beat here. #3 Must Go caught the eye at the trials last week in the same heat as Ka Ying Rising. It was his best work for some time, suggesting his race-day form is ready to lift. #12 Armour War Eagle stays on the radar after his first try at this track and trip two runs back when he finished off nicely into fourth. #1 Perfect Team brings some X-factor as he is better suited over further, but if they run it along up front, he can be the one swooping late. The blinkers are back on, and his recent trial, although quiet, was sound.

Race 9: GREEN ISLAND HANDICAP

#12 Sky Vino gets a chance to put himself into the race early after a run of awkward gates this campaign. Barrier 6 should let him settle handy without burning petrol, and he has already shown he handles the all-weather with a third on the surface. #4 Another World looks to be thriving on this track, winning two starts ago, then backing it up with a third. He draws low again to secure a soft run in transit, and that keeps him right on the shortlist. #5 Dragon Air Force gets the map he wants from barrier 2 after a poor trip from barrier 7 last time, when fifth. He showed two runs back what he can do from this gate when flashing home into second. #13 Allcash keeps Zac Purton after an unlucky sixth, and he is worth another look, given his overall improved form this campaign.