Hong Kong: Selections for Happy Valley Jan. 28

Racing at Happy Valley begins at 5:40 a.m. ET. Selections and analysis by Luke Middlebrook.

Race 1: FENWICK HANDICAP

#4 Savvy Twinkle is well placed to break through. He drops into Class 5 for the first time after a luckless fifth when plenty went wrong in running, and the switch to Zac Purton is a notable push. Barrier 4 is ideal over the 1000m and he looks set to get every chance. #2 Spicy Spangle is another class-dropper to keep on side. He comes off an improved trial where he led all the way in his heat and similar catch-me-if-you-can tactics are likely. #5 Concorde Star backed up his eye-catching win two runs back with another sound effort, charging home for second from a wide draw. The drop back to 1000m is the query, but he will be launching late. #1 Island Breezes is knocking on the door after a fast-finishing second over this track and trip, only missing by a nose.

Race 2: FLEMING HANDICAP

#8 Double Show has been one of the Brett Crawford stable-change success stories, winning once and then running second from three starts for the yard. He has trialed well between runs and barrier 4 can allow him to land in a prime spot. #3 Tsuen Wan Glory has trialed nicely for a Class 5 horse since his last run and barrier 1 gives him the chance to roll forward and take catching. #4 Thunder Blink resumes off a stable switch to Danny Shum and the Zac Purton booking does not go unnoticed. His trial was sound and his last-start effort in his first look at Class 5 was better than it reads after covering ground. #2 Telecom Power gets another chance after a luckless sixth at Sha Tin when he was held up in the straight. The inside draw can give him the sweet run he needs to finish it off.

Race 3: LOCKHART HANDICAP

#1 Hayday is hard to ignore in this grade, with all four wins and as many placings coming in Class 4. Barrier 10 reads poorly, but the last time he saw this grade he also drew 10, went straight to the front, and clung on late. He can try to repeat that effort. #3 Straight To Glory looks capable of winning again. He switched to this track and trip last time off the back of solid Sha Tin runs and, from the inside draw, he enjoyed the right run before proving too strong late to break through. #7 Ace Power keeps Zac Purton after a luckless third when he was denied clear running for much of the straight. #12 Gor Gor has shown marked improvement at the trials since switching to the Brett Crawford stable and that can translate to race day.

Race 4: THE HONG KONG FOOTBALL CLUB CENTENARY CUP (HANDICAP)

#1 Fun Elite comes here fresh and his trial for the return was a good guide. This is his second look back in Class 4, which is where his better form sits, and it is also his third run for Michael Chang. #5 Bunta Baby has put together a strong season and he finally converted last time for his first Hong Kong win. A nice trial between runs suggests he has held his form and he can win again. #6 Beauty Thunder keeps Zac Purton and the conditions swing back in his favor at this track and trip after being unsuited over 1200m on the all-weather. His second to Bunta Baby two starts ago reads well given the strong tempo. #8 Happy United returns after a bleeding attack and fresh can be the time to catch them. He has trialed well behind Patch of Theta for return.

Race 5: JAFFE HANDICAP

#11 Ace War gets the chance to atone after going under as a short-priced favorite last time. The run was not as clean as it looked on paper and Zac Purton sticking with him is a positive. #5 Ragga Bomb went too hard in front last start, turned it into a backmarker's race, and weakened out to eighth. Hugh Bowman takes over and barrier 3 gives him the chance for a softer trip. #12 Setanta arrives off back-to-back placings and he can land a handy spot from barrier 4, stalking the speed before being produced at the right time. He should be one of the main closers late. #7 Ka Ying Glory is the tricky one to line up, but a better gate and strong trial win give him the chance to lift his form.

Race 6: LOCKHART HANDICAP

#1 Meowth gets the map he has been waiting for after two runs from barrier 12. He was forced wide when second to Amazing Kid two back, then last start at Sha Tin he was ridden cold. Barrier 1 gives him the chance to turn the tables. #5 Amazing Kid goes for the hat-trick and he draws right alongside in barrier 2. He is thriving and hard to knock. #7 Get Friendly has barrier 10 to contend with, but there is plenty to like. He trialed very well at Happy Valley between runs and Zac Purton taking over for his third start suggests he is ready to produce a good run. #10 Thunder Prince looks better placed back on turf after an all-weather attempt and barrier 3 gives Hugh Bowman a good map. He is still chasing that first win, but his form has been sound since joining the Jamie Richards stable.

Race 7: SOUTHORN HANDICAP

#3 Romantic Son gets better conditions, back to the sort of set-up he had when winning three runs ago. He struck trouble when fifth the start after that, then last time at Sha Tin the race did not suit, and a good trial between runs suggests he can bounce back. #8 Prestige Always draws barrier 2 and returns to this track and trip where he chased King Miles home for second three runs ago. Two Sha Tin runs since have been sound without much luck. #6 Perfect General made full use of an inside draw last start to lead and win. There can be more pressure this time, but he has shown he does not need to lead to run well. #1 Gracious Express needs some luck from barrier 11, but he has the form to surprise. This is an easier assignment than against the likes of Invincible Ibis.

Race 8: O'BRIEN HANDICAP

#12 China Win meets a tougher group of seasoned performers, but the set-up gives him a fair chance to chase back-to-back wins. He drew clear for his maiden at start seven at Sha Tin despite barrier 14, and the combination of a kinder draw and 115lb keeps him well in. #4 Liveandletlive can take up the running from barrier 3 and he looks the one to control the tempo. Highland Rahy is the obvious horse who could apply pressure. #1 Jumbo Legend reunites with Hugh Bowman, who partnered his last two wins last season, and the drop back into Class 3 is a plus. #7 Romantic Thor has to overcome the wide gate, but Luke Ferraris is a positive booking. He was used up in a fast-run Sha Tin race last time and this is the chance to get a softer run.

Race 9: SOUTHORN HANDICAP

#10 Greater Bae comes here third-up locally after a tidy trial win over Red Lion and Raging Blizzard. Zac Purton rode that hit-out and stays on. His first-up ninth at this track and trip was better than it looks after he was held up late, then second-up he had to race wide without cover. #12 My Day My Way looks set to get every chance from barrier 2. His first look at Class 3 was a pass mark when beaten half a length by Perfect General and the set-up again looks kind. #2 Spicy Gold did not fire last start, but barrier 1 changes the complexion. #4 Super Joy N Fun has been doing it tough from barrier 12 in his last two runs and he can appreciate landing in a mid-draw. Michael Chang has him ticking over nicely and the switch back to Happy Valley is a positive.