Hong Kong: Selections for Happy Valley March 18

Racing at Happy Valley begins at 6:40 a.m. ET. Selections and analysis by Luke Middlebrook.

 Race 1: ASTER HANDICAP

#4 Sterling Wongchoy comes off a fast-finishing fourth over 1200m after being eased back early from barrier 1, then charging late. The step up in trip appeals given his record at the track and distance, a win and three seconds, and he also gets a clear map upgrade moving into barrier 3 from 11. #7 Soaring Bronco is a stable switcher to note, moving from Pierre Ng to Mark Newnham, and his trial was good enough to suggest he can be competitive. Barrier 2 gives him the chance to settle handily. #10 Dragon Sunrise draws barrier 12, which is the knock, but his form stands out, and the booking of Purton helps offset the wide gate. #2 Lucky Blessing has trialed noticeably better since his last run and looks the one to roll forward and give them something to run down.

Race 2: AZALEA HANDICAP

#4 Fantastic Fun is also a class dropper to take note of, bringing Bowman back on, the same pairing that landed back-to-back wins at this track and trip earlier in the season. Barrier 4 should see him land just off the speed and get every chance. #1 Mighty Steed gets a big chance to lift his form back in Class 4, and the reunion with Purton catches the eye after he guided him to a win six runs ago on a class drop. #2 Armor Golden Eagle has been finishing off well from wide gates in his last three since the blinkers went on. The switch to Happy Valley looks like a softer assignment, while a better draw helps. #8 Shooting To Top made a promising debut over 1400m at Sha Tin, eased back from barrier 12 before catching the eye late into seventh. Natural improvement second-up is expected.

Race 3: BELLFLOWER HANDICAP

#1 Parents' Love drops back into Class 4, and that is the key swing after eight tries in Class 3, where he has looked a touch outclassed. A sharp lead-in trial suggests he is ready to take advantage, and he can be hard to run down. #3 Beauty Thunder looks set to settle off the speed, and the expected tempo gives him the right platform to finish over the top. #10 Heroic Master tends to improve second-up, winning three of five at that stage, and his first run for the new stable was encouraging when third. #8 Watch This One has had little luck in his last four starts, repeatedly held up late and denied a clear crack, and he is capable of springing a surprise if the gaps appear at the right time, which looks possible today from barrier 4.

Race 4: SHAMROCK HANDICAP

#5 Goko Win has had excuses from wide draws at his last two starts. Barrier 2 is a major map swing that can turn his luck around. #2 Superb King finds a better race after tackling a stronger Class 3 last time, and he had an excuse the run before when used up from barrier 12. The reference is his second, beaten a head by Straight to Glory three starts ago, and that form puts him right in this. Barrier 12 asks a question again, although the lack of obvious pace on paper gives Purton the chance to cut across and land in a handy spot. #12 World Hero can get a good time on the pace from barrier 4, and his back-to-back fourths have been solid, including behind the likes of Smart Golf. #1 Very Grateful hit the line well into fourth on the class drop last time.

Race 5: THE IRELAND TROPHY (HANDICAP)

#5 Rainbow Seven snapped a run of luckless efforts with a deserved win last time, and he did it with something in hand. This looks like another winnable assignment, and barrier 3 sets Purton up to find the right run in transit. #4 Jolly Companion was forced to spend early from barrier 10 last time, and the run never developed from there, leaving him without a finish. His previous two runs read far better: a win over Superb Boy followed by a second to Victor The Rapid, and that form brings him right back into it. #6 Sky Cap can roll forward from a middle draw and give a sight after nearly pinching it last time when leading until the final 50m. #12 Winning Champion has been disappointing, but he gets in at the foot of the weights, and first-time blinkers give him a chance to lift.

Race 6: DAHLIA HANDICAP

#3 Ace War made a big statement at his first start for the Mark Newnham stable, overracing in a slowly run 2200m race under Purton, yet still putting them away by two lengths without being asked for much. He goes up eight points in the ratings, but the manner of that win suggests he remains well placed to do it again. #6 Reliable Dad is trending the right way to a first career win. He produced his best effort yet when third over 1800m, and a tidy trial since suggests he has held that form and can take another step. #2 Noble Pursuit looks suited by the expected tempo, settling back and running on, and the rise back to 1800m is a plus. #4 Amazing Gaze has been holding his form despite wide draws at his last three starts and looks close to breaking through for his maiden win.

Race 7: DAISY HANDICAP

#6 Crimson Flash returns to his pet track and trip, where he is two from three, and comes here 45 days fresh after his attempt in the Classic Mile. An impressive trial win for the return, quickening late to score comfortably, suggests he is ready to get back on track. #1 Colourful King is still chasing a 1200m win, but his narrow seconds at this track and distance show the trip holds no fears, and he is more than just a 1000m horse. #8 Young Champion has found his form since dropping back in distance, landing back-to-back seconds, and another good trial between runs keeps him on track, with his Sha Tin form translating well to Happy Valley a plus. #3 Kaholo Angel brings a 1200m win over Magic Control and looks the value angle in the race.

Race 8: HYDRANGEA HANDICAP

#2 Lucy In the Sky can be forgiven for his first-up ninth, never getting the chance to finish the race off after being checked more than once in the straight before being eased down. His Sha Tin form stands up well in a race like this, and the switch to Happy Valley for the first time adds interest, especially from barrier 1. #3 Lucky Planet had excuses last time after being slow out and missing the lead, then striking further trouble later in the run. Barrier 3 gives him the chance to ping and use his usual speed again. #7 Aurio keeps Purton after a pair of fourths that were better than they read, given the way the races were run. #10 Straight to Glory gets a clear map upgrade from barrier 2 and looks set for a much smoother run in transit after he raced keenly last time.

Race 9: SNAPDRAGON HANDICAP

#3 Do Your Part has been ultra-consistent this season, yet to finish outside the top three in seven runs. His Happy Valley record is not flattering on paper, but those attempts came early in his career, and he is a different horse now. Barrier 4 looks good for his on-pace profile. #1 Max Que has done an excellent job this season, winning three and placing four from seven, and looks set to get the tempo that suits his pattern after he missed by a nose chasing back-to-back wins last time. #9 Stormi chases a fourth straight win as he steps into Class 3, and the cheekpieces have clearly lifted him since they went on. #12 Win Beauty Viva tries blinkers for the first time after an only fair seventh as a well-backed favorite last time. He also draws for a kind run from barrier 2.