Horse Racing This Weekend: Key Races, Top Horses & Best Bets [July 4-5]
The field rounds the clubhouse turn in the 2024 Belmont S. (G1) at Saratoga (Photo by Coglianese Photography)
July 4th, 2025
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Top horses and best bets for horse racing this weekend
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Best Bets for the Belmont Derby
Read the full analysis here: Saratoga: Exotics Plays for the Belmont Derby on Friday
A strong field of eight will vie in Friday’s lucrative $750,000 Belmont Derby (G1) at Saratoga. The 1 1/8-mile turf test features an accomplished and talented cast with not a whole lot separating the contenders in the field, in my opinion.
Belmont Derby Exotics
- $4 exacta key box 3 with 4,5,8 ($16)
- 50-cent superfecta 3,4 with 3,4,5 with 3,4,5,8 with all ($8)
Top Horses for the 2025 Belmont Derby
#3 Luther (6-1) displayed a lot of ability as a juvenile, which included a runner-up performance behind morning-line second choice #4 New Century (3-1) at Salisbury in his second career appearance. Trained by Charlie Fellowes, the son of superstar Frankel finished second in his seasonal debut prior to checking in a close fourth in a strong field in the Poule d’Essai des Poulains (G1) at Longchamp in his second run of the season. The bay colt didn’t follow up his fine run in the French Two Thousand Guineas in a great way when well beaten in a subsequent Group 1 try at Chantilly, but a cut back in distance in a more reasonable spot will aid the contender on Friday. Kieran Shoemark comes in to pilot the sophomore.
#5 Test Score (4-1) finished ahead of New Century when runner-up in the American Turf in his latest venture for trainer Graham Motion. The Amerman homebred has been in good form as a three-year-old, and his tactical speed will help him get the jump on the late runners turning for home in this endeavor. Manny Franco retains the ride.
The feature on an eight-race card at Delaware Park on Saturday is the $250,000 Robert G. Dick Memorial S. (G3), a turf test at about 1 3/8 miles for fillies and mares. A cast of six will vie in the grassy marathon, and I will give top billing to the Group-1 placed #5 Spanish Eyes (7-2) in her second start in the States.
Robert G. Dick Memorial Wagers
Best Bets for the Kelso Stakes
Read the full analysis here: Betting With, and Against, Donegal Momentum in the Kelso Stakes
A dozen talented runners, with four of those being main-track only entrants, are set for Saturday’s $175,000 Kelso S. (G3) at Saratoga. The one-mile test on the inner turf surface attracted a diverse field of milers as well as sprinters, stretching out in what is a pretty compelling contest.
Donegal Momentum – With
- $5 trifecta key 4 with 2,3,8 ($30)
- $2 superfecta key 4 with 2,3,8 ($12)
Donegal Momentum – Against
- $2 trifecta 2,3,8 with 2,3,4,8 with 2,3,4,8 ($36)
- $1 trifecta key 3 with 2,4,8 ($6)
Top Horses for the 2025 Kelso Stakes
#4 Donegal Momentum (5-2) was an easy winner of the Poker S. (G3) on the oval and at the distance last time out and is the morning-line choice in the event. Uncle Mo colt is perfect from two endeavors at The Spa and sports a 6-4-1-1 lifetime mark on the sod, too. Thomas Morley trainee possesses very good early speed and shows a pair of solid moves on the oval as of late, too, and the dark bay is the controlling pace in the race, as well. Javier Castellano has the assignment.
#3 Think Big (7-2) has a lot of appeal for conditioner Michael Stidham. The four-year-old son of Twirling Candy had reeled off a trio of wins in succession prior to an unplaced effort in the Jaipur S. (G1) at this venue most recently. The Godolphin homebred is four-for-five on the green in his lifetime and is undoubtedly eligible for improvement in his first run at the distance on the green. I feel as though the late runner has a big chance beneath Jose Ortiz.
#8 Win for the Money (6-1) will make his first appearance following an unplaced run in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) for Mark Casse. The Mohaymen gelding has reportedly been training in excellent fashion leading up to Saturday and also possesses the positional speed to get the jump on the late runners, too. Dylan Davis will pilot the six-year-old.
#2 Intellect (3-1) has won or placed in 10 of 11 lifetime tries, all on the grass, and the French-bred was last seen finishing fast to be second in the Poker S. (G3) behind the favorite. The Intello gelding could peak in his third try off the one-year absence under Prat, especially if the pace is robust.
Racing at Ellis Park (Photo by Coady Media/Ellis Park)
An overflow field of 13 sophomore fillies will dash 5 1/2 furlongs on the Ellis Park lawn in Sunday’s $150,000 Pea Patch S. A talented and especially well-matched field will vie in the feature of the afternoon, so I feel compelled to look for value with my selections.
Pea Patch Wagers
The TwinSpires Jury of James Scully and Nick Tammaro debate their best bets and fades for the July 4 Racing Festival at Saratoga and Gulfstream Park, preview three-year-old stakes at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Prairie Meadows, and look forward to Kopion's appearance in Saturday's Great Lady M (G2) at Los Alamitos.
Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast
Jason discusses some of the news of the day including Mountaineer staple Mark Patterson leaving the Mountain. He also looks ahead to the July 4th races at Saratoga, including the Suburban (G2) and Belmont Derby (G1).
Racing at Ellis Park (Photo by Coady Media/Ellis Park)
The Pick 3 of the Week will come from Ellis Park on Friday, during the second day of the meeting. A pair of fun maiden races will sandwich the feature in the closing three-race sequence.
Race 7 Wager
- $1 Pick 3: 1,6,8,9 with 3,8 with 4,8,9,10 ($32)
The Pick 4 of the Week will come from the Hoosier State on Saturday during the marquee afternoon of the meeting.
Race 10 Wager
- $1 Pick 4: 4 with 2,5 with 1,3,6,7,9 with 1,5,6 ($30)
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