Horse Racing This Weekend: Key Races, Top Horses & Best Bets [Mar. 6]
Tampa Bay Downs Scenic (SV Photography)
March 7th, 2026
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Get ready for horse racing this weekend
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2026 Kentucky Derby Corner & the 2026 Kentucky Oaks
Come here every week to discover everything you need to know about the 2026 Kentucky Derby. With many races from last week rescheduled for Friday, it'll be important to check back next week to see all the changes.
- Kentucky Derby News
- New Pedigree Profiles
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- San Felipe Stakes
Weekend Windup
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Top horses and best bets for horse racing this weekend
Click to jump to each race listed!
Best Bets for the 2026 Tampa Bay Derby
Read the full analysis here: Tipsheet: 2026 Tampa Bay Derby
An excellent cast of nine sophomores will run 1 1/16 miles on the Tampa main strip in Saturday’s $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G3). The 2026 Road to the Kentucky Derby challenge series contest will reward the top five finishers with qualifying points on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale. What is your best bet?
Tampa Bay Derby Picks
- #6 Further Ado
- #8 The Puma
- #9 Canaletto
- #5 Powershift
Tampa Bay Derby Wagers
- $15 win and place #6 Further Ado
- $1 superfecta box 5,6,8,9
Top Horses for the 2026 Tampa Bay Derby
#6 FURTHER ADO: Brad Cox trainee bagged the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) in his final run of 2025 and has worked swiftly in the interim. The chestnut son of Gun Runner, who broke his maiden by 20 lengths at Keeneland two back, is two-for-two since stretching out in distance and gets the nod to pick up where he left off on Saturday. Irad retains the ride and will rally the colt from off the early tempo in his local bow.
Pro: Maiden winner by a pole, followed up winning the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2).
Con: Will be a very short price, and this is likely a means to an end.
#8 THE PUMA: Essential Quality colt was a huge second in a maiden race on debut, which preceded a clear third in the Sam F. Davis S. on this oval most recently. The Kentucky-bred chestnut will benefit from having a run over the surface and will be well placed at the top of the lane with Javier Castellano on board.
Pro: Third in Sam F. Davis S. was okay, given his relative inexperience.
Con: Still a maiden after two starts and must quicken versus these.
#9 CANALETTO: $1 million son of Into Mischief was extremely impressive in his dominant, eight-length debut win at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 25 and has reportedly been working in fine fashion since his unveiling, as well. The Chad Brown trainee drew well on the outside of the field to avoid traffic, and the lightly raced bay has to be considered a major player in the tilt with expected improvement on Saturday. Flavien Prat comes in to keep the mount.
Pro: Huge eight-length debut win at Gulfstream going a mile; plenty of upside.
Con: Lacks the seasoning that his main rivals do.
#5 POWERSHIFT: $500,000 son of Constitution was well clear in second in a strong maiden run on this surface in his debut when earning a hefty 98 Brisnet Speed rating in the process. The Todd Pletcher pupil was pointing towards this race before he made his first start, and he looks like a very good prospect to me. John Velazquez picks up the mount atop the win threat.
Pro: Beaten first time out but narrowly in a very fast maiden over this strip.
Con: Relative lack of experience is the main knock against.
RELATED: Meet the Contenders: 2026 Tampa Bay Derby
Whiskey Decision wins at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Coady Media)
Pick 4 of the Week: Tampa Bay Downs Saturday, March 7
Three of the four graded races being contested during the signature day of the meeting at Tampa Bay Downs will be part of the Pick 4 of the Week.
Race 8 Wagers
- 50-cent Pick 4: 2 with 1,2,4,8 with 2,7,9,11 with 5,6,8,9 ($32)
- 50-cent Pick 4: 2,3,7 with 1,2,4,8 with 7 with 5,6,8,9 ($24)
Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast
Jason welcomes Kellie Reilly for our weekly International Radar segment and discusses Saturday's upcoming Tampa Bay Derby card.
Best Bets for the 2026 San Felipe Stakes
Read the full analysis here: Tipsheet: 2026 San Felipe Stakes
A strong cast of seven three-year-olds will run 1 1/16 miles on the main course at Santa Anita in Saturday’s $200,000 San Felipe (G2). The 2026 Road to the Kentucky Derby challenge series tilt will reward the top five across the line with qualifying points on a 50-25-15-10-5 structure. What is your best bet?
San Felipe Stakes Picks
- #4 Brant
- #3 Secured Freedom
- #6 So Happy
San Felipe Stakes Wagers
Top Horses for the 2026 San Felipe Stakes
#4 BRANT: Top pick from the Baffert barn was a $3 million juvenile purchase and put in a trio of good runs in his two-year-old season, led by a tally in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) two back. A brave third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) to close out 2025, the Gun Runner colt has posted six morning moves in advance of his return, and he will be a formidable foe if ready off the bench. Florent Geroux inherits the mount.
Pro: A leading two-year-old from last season enjoys a big class edge here.
Con: Slow to wind up after winter break and might prove a bit short.
#3 SECURED FREEDOM: Bay son of Practical Joke was a sharp maiden winner on the oval two back and ran in spots when third in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) in his most recent run. The Tim Yakteen trainee will have benefited from having a route race under his belt, and the colt posted a pair of nice morning drills in the interim, as well. The Virginia-bred will be a factor inside the final furlong with Kimura retaining the ride.
Pro: Non-threatening third in Robert B. Lewis (G3) but eligible to improve.
Con: Comfortably outrun by So Happy in their mutual debut.
#6 SO HAPPY: Runhappy sophomore has done nothing wrong to date in winning both races so far, led by a strong tally in the San Vicente (G2) on the course most recently. The Mark Glatt pupil is training in rapid fashion leading up to this route debut, and he might be up to the task after finishing full of energy in both of his assignments in preparation for Saturday. Mike Smith will be in the silks once again.
Pro: Unbeaten in two starts and sharp victor of San Vicente (G2).
Con: Two-turn ability unknown and by a champion sprinter.
RELATED: Meet the Contenders: 2026 San Felipe Stakes
Brant, the $3 million OBS March juvenile, aired on debut at Del Mar (Photo by Horsephotos.com)
Pick 3 of the Week: Santa Anita Saturday, March 7
The Pick 3 of the Week will come from Santa Anita on Saturday, with a trio of races for sophomores as my focus.
Race 6 Wager
$1 Pick 3: all with 1,3,5,11 with 4 ($40)
TwinSpires Jury
The TwinSpires Jury is back for Episode 132! Join Ashley Anderson, James Scully, and Darin Zoccali as they break down a huge weekend of Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks prep races from across the country.
This week, the TwinSpires handicapping trio previews the Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs in Oldsmar, Florida, where 3-year-old colts will battle for 50 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
The crew also analyzes the Florida Oaks, a key prep race offering 50 points toward the Kentucky Oaks for the top 3-year-old fillies.
Then the Jury heads west to Santa Anita Park for the San Felipe Stakes, another major Derby prep where rising stars will look to secure 50 qualifying points toward the Run for the Roses.
To close out the show, the panel delivers Rapid Fire Best Bets and identifies favorites they’re willing to fade from a packed weekend of racing action coast-to-coast.
Whether you're building tickets, searching for value, or just following the Derby trail, the TwinSpires Jury has you covered.
Best Bets for the 2026 Santa Ysabel Stakes
Read the full analysis here: How to bet the 2026 Santa Ysabel Stakes
Seven sophomore fillies will vie in Sunday's $100,000 Santa Ysabel (G3) at Santa Anita. The 1 1/16-mile affair features a lot of fast horses led by Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). What is your best bet?
Santa Ysabel Wagers
Top Horses for the Santa Ysabel Stakes
#5 Forced Entry, one of two in the field for trainer Bob Baffert, showed speed before being dusted late in a turf run in her debut, but showed huge improvement on the main oval second time out. The $375,000 yearling purchase led at every call on the stretch-out to one mile on this surface last time, and the daughter of Charlatan has posted a trio of maintenance morning moves on the strip in the interim, as well. I expect the bay to come from off the pace some in this spot with go-to pilot Juan Hernandez in the silks.
Queen #6 Super Corredora will try to upend the presumptive favorite in the affair. Super Corredora was dueled into submission in her 2026 debut in the Las Virgenes S. for conditioner John Sadler, but rates a big chance in this particular spot second time off the layoff. The fleet daughter of Gun Runner received what could be a very good post draw on the outside of the other pace in the group, and if she can show even a measure of rating ability in the contest, then she will be formidable late with her top performance. Regular rider Hector Berrios will guide the swift filly and have her forcing the action early on.
#2 Bank Shot finished a creditable third in the Las Virgenes S. last time and has shown nice improvement from two career runs this season for trainer Ryan Hanson. The Game Winner filly looks to me like a horse that will appreciate the added ground on Sunday with her one-paced running style, and the Kentucky-bred will also save ground behind what is expected to be a fast and contested pace in the heat, as well. Adrian Escobedo will guide the $160,000 juvenile purchase.
Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast
Jason discusses some news topics from the weekend and then welcomes in Michelle Yu to talk Santa Anita Big Cap day, Saudi Cup, and much more!
Racing at Tampa Bay Downs. (Photo by SV Photography)
Exotics Plays for the Florida Oaks
A talented and well-matched field of 11 three-year-old fillies will travel 1 1/16 miles on the Tampa Bay Downs turf in Saturday’s $200,000 Florida Oaks (G3). I feel that the affair is mostly wide-open, although I am looking forward to the return of Todd Pletcher’s #7 Time to Dream in the contest. A $750,000 yearling purchase in 2024 at Keeneland September, the daughter of Not This Time was very good in two runs at Saratoga to commence her career, led by a five-length romp in the P. G. Johnson S. in August.
Florida Oaks Exotics
Baby max wins the Leonatus Stakes at Turfway Park. (Photo by Coady Media)
How to bet the Big Daddy Stakes
A well-matched field of seven will travel six panels on Turfway’s Tapeta surface in Saturday’s $125,000 Big Daddy S. I expect the pace of the race to be robust and contested, so looking for a horse that can come from off the pace is the direction that I will turn.
Big Daddy Wagers
Nitrogen wins the Alabama at Saratoga. (Photo by Coglianese Photo)
Betting With, and Against, Nitrogen in the Azeri Stakes
Six fillies and mares will try to knock off champion #2 Nitrogen (4-5) in the $400,000 Azeri (G2) at Oaklawn Park on Saturday. The 1 1/16-mile affair attracted a solid group of ladies, but the race will go through the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro, who was a stylish, 2 3/4-length heroine of the Bayakoa (G3) in her seasonal bow on the oval.
Nitrogen – With
- $1 superfecta 2 with 3,5,6 with 3,5,6 with all ($24)
- $2 superfecta key 2 with 3,5,6 ($12)
Nitrogen – Against
- $3 trifecta 3,6 with 2,3,5,6 with 2,3,5,6 ($36)
Weekend Video Coverage
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