Horse Racing This Weekend: Key Races, Top Horses & Best Bets [Nov. 22]

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Weekend Windup

Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast

Jason is joined by Kellie Reilly for our weekly International Radar segment. Then he discusses opening day at Tampa Bay Downs and looks ahead to Fair Grounds' opening day.

RELATED: Thursday Thoughts with Jason Beem for Nov. 20, 2025

Top horses and best bets for horse racing this weekend

Click to jump to each race listed!

Best Bets for the 2025 Commonwealth Turf Stakes

Read the full analysis here: Betting With, and Against, Troubleshooting in the Commonwealth Turf

Franklin Simpson S. (G1) winner #2 Troubleshooting (7-2) is the morning-line choice in Saturday’s deep $300,000 Commonwealth Turf S. (G3) at Churchill Downs Saturday horse racing. However, if you're not set on the favorite, check out these best bets for the Commonwealth Turf Stakes.

Troubleshooting – With

• $8 exacta 2 with 3,6,9 ($24)
• 50-cent superfecta 2 with 3,9 with 3,6,9 with all ($16)

Troubleshooting – Against

• $10 win and place #9 Flying Mohawk ($20) 
• 20-cent superfecta 3,9 with 2,3,6,9 with 2,3,6,9 with all ($19.20)

Top Horses for the 2025 Commonwealth Turf Stakes

#9 Flying Mohawk (8-1) never factored in the Kentucky Derby (G1) in his lone try running on the dirt, but the Whit Beckman charge has been freshened up and will return to his preferred turf surface. The bay son of Karakontie was a dominant winner in his previous two runs on the green, which includes a runaway score on this course in his lone prior effort on the Louisville lawn. He has been working steadily and will also have the blinkers back on, as well, and I expect a big run from the Kentucky-bred with Joe Ramos riding. 

#3 Montador (5-1) has been first or second in all five runs in his lifetime and was last seen cruising past allowance foes on this course on Nov. 2. The Nyquist colt from the Stidham shedrow has tactical speed combined with a nice turn of foot, and he has really thrived since stretching out in distance three back. Luis Saez will guide the contender. 

#6 Mansetti (6-1) has never run on the grass, but has to be given a look in his Churchill bow for Kevin Attard. The Collected colt has finished in the top two in five of his last six outings in total, and he has the pedigree to like the grass for sure. He’s a four-time stakes winner with a versatile running style that translates to multiple distances, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he were a major player in the tilt inside the final furlong. Regular rider Pietro Moran comes in to pilot the colt. 

Best Bets for the 2025 Native Diver Stakes

Read the full analysis here: Exotics Plays for the Native Diver Stakes

Grade 1 winner #3 Nevada Beach will lead a compact field of five postward in Saturday’s $100,000 Native Diver S. (G3) at Del Mar. Trained by Bob Baffert, the dark bay debuted in April and scored at first asking when running one mile at Santa Anita, and he has continued to progress since. The $260,000 yearling purchase was an easy winner of the Los Alamitos Derby in his third career engagement, and he earned his signature tally with a decisive win in the Goodwood S. (G1) on Sept. 27. Will Nevada Beach be your best bet?

Native Diver Exotics

• $20 exacta 3 with 1 ($20)
• $15 trifecta 3 with 1 with 4 ($15)
• $5 trifecta 3 with 4 with 1 ($5)

Top Horses for the 2025 Native Diver Stakes

#3 Nevada Beach was never a serious threat in the especially rich Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), but the sophomore faces a much more reasonable task on Saturday. He has posted two useful morning drills in advance of his second run on the oval, and looks best in the field with Juan Hernandez taking the reins.

#1 Indispensable is just 2-for-16 in his lifetime, but the Constitution colt owns four placings in his five lifetime runs in the stakes ranks and makes sense in this endeavor. Trained by the red-hot John Sadler, the expensive yearling purchase comes off a solid third in the Ack Ack S. (G3) at Churchill Downs last time out and gets back on a strip where he dons a 6-2-2-1 mark. The bay has kept some pretty strong company in his last pair of tilts and could easily round out the exacta with his best effort. Hector Berrios will have him forcing the pace early in a group lacking an abundance of early foot. 

#4 British Isles for conditioner Richard Baltas. The son of Justify has not run on the main oval for some time, but his half-brother, Eight Rings, was a Grade 1 victor on the dirt and also finished third in this race in 2021, as well. The Kentucky-bred gelding has posted four seemingly good morning moves on the course in preparation for Saturday, and he’s worth a top-three chance in a small field at a healthy price. The chestnut will try to pass runners in the lane beneath Diego Herrera. 

TwinSpires Jury

James Scully, Darin Zoccali, and Ashley Anderson share picks for weekend stakes action at Churchill Downs, Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, and more.

Best Bets for the 2025 Pebbles Stakes

Read the full analysis here: How to bet the 2025 Pebbles Stakes

A total of eight sophomore fillies are entered for the grass in Sunday’s $175,000 Pebbles S. (G3) at Aqueduct. I didn’t give a big chance to #1 Fast Market when she just missed in the Sands Point S. (G2) on the course, but I am surely in her corner on this occasion. Is Fast Market your best bet?

Pebbles Wagers

• $1 superfecta 1 with 4,6,8 with 4,6,8 with all ($30)
• $2 trifecta 4,6,8 with 1 with 4,6,8 ($12)

Top Horses for the 2025 Pebbles Stakes

#1 Fast Market, conditioned by John Terranova, broke her maiden in her ninth lifetime start on the strip two back and ran huge last time, and I feel as though the removal of blinkers has had a lot to do with her vast improvement. The Volatile three-year-old likes the surface and the distance, and I also feel the rail draw is ideal for her running style, allowing the filly to save ground throughout. Flavien Prat will guide the leading selection. 

#4 It Ain’t Two will travel a route of ground for just the second time in her career and gets a top-three look with John Velazquez taking the reins. The Resolute Racing color bearer has run into some very good fillies in her six tries in 2025, including Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) vixen Shisospicy on three separate occasions, and this is a more reasonable spot for sure. The European import might be forwardly placed, given the added ground in the affair. 

#8 Peak Hype defeated her elders in an allowance contest on the course in her latest showing and wouldn’t be a major surprise in her stakes bow. The More Than Ready filly has a strong closing kick and will arrive on the scene late under Santana. 

#6 Sweet Treasure is three-for-four in her lifetime for conditioner Brad Cox and exits a convincing allowance score at Churchill Downs on Oct. 31. The daughter of excellent turf influence Twirling Candy will face better on this occasion, but she looked good with the blinkers off most recently, and it’s worth noting that this is the lone mount of the day for pilot Florent Geroux. 

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