How Kentucky Derby Future Wager backers might be feeling
With the Kentucky Derby (G1) rapidly approaching, many bettors are curious to know if they did the right thing with their respective future wager plays.
A total of six pools were offered in advance of the Run for the Roses on May 6, and below is where things currently stand for the early punters. I have highlighted in bold, italicized text several of the robust value plays that stand out to me:
The opening pool featured Derby hopefuls Forte (16-1), Hit Show (46-1), Rocket Can (123-1), Two Phil’s (99-1), and Verifying (44-1) as individual offerings. I think it’s fairly safe to say anyone with a ticket on one of these five has received a good measure of value in their wager.
Six horses expected to start on May 6 were offered in Pool 2. Disarm (45-1), Forte (10-1), Hit Show (90-1), Practical Move (350-1), Rocket Can (132-1), and Verifying (74-1) are the ones, and anyone invested in these wagers has presumably locked in a better price than they'll get on Derby Day.
The closer each pool gets to the Derby, the more qualified contenders show up on the ledger. Angel of Empire (125-1), Confidence Game (78-1), Disarm (58-1), Forte (7-1), Hit Show (77-1), Jace’s Road (69-1), Kingbarns (32-1), Practical Move (58-1), Rocket Can (121-1), Sun Thunder (58-1), Tapit Trice (45-1), Two Phil’s (91-1), and Verifying (34-1) are here in Pool 3. I can say with a level of confidence that bettors invested at this stage on any of the aforementioned three-year-olds are relatively happy with their position from a value standpoint.
Angel of Empire (112-1), Confidence Game (119-1), Disarm (50-1), Forte (8-1), Hit Show (28-1), Jace’s Road (104-1), Kingsbarns (35-1), Mage (48-1), Practical Move (83-1), Rocket Can (35-1), Tapit Trice (15-1), Two Phil’s (95-1), and Verifying (34-1) are listed in this pool. The backers of most of these sophomores will be pleased with the price that they locked in.
The penultimate pool shows 15 of the Derby contestants offered as options: Angel of Empire (38-1), Confidence Game (30-1), Disarm (60-1), Forte (3-1), Hit Show (28-1), Kingsbarns (43-1), Mage (75-1), Practical Move (12-1), Reincarnate (24-1), Rocket Can (42-1), Skinner (45-1), Sun Thunder (85-1), Tapit Trice (8-1), Two Phil’s (88-1), and Verifying (36-1). At least half of those offered preferable prices in the future wager compared to what they will be at post time for the Derby.
While getting value in the final Pool is often challenging, the following horses will almost surely head to post at shorter odds than they offered at the conclusion of the future wager. Angel of Empire (29-1), Continuar (54-1), Jace’s Road (118-1), Mage (46-1), Raise Cain (81-1), Sun Thunder (113-1), and Verifying (50-1) all look like sensible investments to me.
Anyone who got Angel of Empire, Practical Move, and/or Two Phil’s, in the earlier pools are sitting at an advantageous spot. Well done! And the same can be said for Rocket Can fans in the first three pools, as well as those who got Tapit Trice at 45-1 at the conclusion of Pool 3. Congrats to all future wager players who are still alive!
Find expert analysis and overviews of all the contenders for the Kentucky Derby on our News & Notes page here on TwinSpires.com!