How to bet the Pick 5 carryover on Monday at Meadowlands
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October 17th, 2016
I'm not a huge fan of shoehorning a single into a multi-race sequence just to play it, but given the $48,106 Pick 5 carryover today at Meadowlands and just 15% takeout on new money I'm OK with gambling a little bit.
The timing of the carryover is funny considering it comes after I tweeted this about more favorites winning versus last year
Last year favorites won just 23% of the races @TheMeadowlands turf meeting. So far this year it's 47% & 83% ItM!
— Ed DeRosa (@EJXD2) October 13, 2016
That has since dropped to 37% with the rash of longshots that have led to today's double carryover in the Pick 5 (see chart at bottom). Even with the pot sweetener, I'll tread lightly in the Pick 5, using only my As for what amounts to a $45 win bet on #8 in race 3 (leg 2 of the Pick 5)
The 15% takeout on all bets allows us to play a little more liberally in the other Pick N wagers. There are rolling doubles and Pick 3s and a Pick 4 that starts with race 3.
So what do we like about #8 Supersecret in race 3? Five-pound bug Ashley Castrenze retaining the mount for trainer Mark Reid second-off the trainer change intrigues, and while speed has done well in turf sprints so far, there's a lot of it here, and this one figures to get the outside stalking trip. If Supersecret doesn't mind the overland route, he should get a clear first run on the pacesetters. That's a big "if" on a favorite, but with #3 Red Creme figuring to take more money, I'll gamble on the horse with consistent Speed Rating as good as any in the field and a lifetime best two back.
If you love non-Pick 6 carryovers, then the Meadowlands isn't your only action to start the week, as there is a $9,885 Pick 5 carryover tonight at Mountaineer, a $2,392 Pick 5 carryover tomorrow at Fort Erie, and a $4,418 Pick 4 carryover Wednesday at Hawthorne.
| MEADOWLANDS AT A GLANCE | |
|---|---|
| Avg. Winning Odds: 6.98 - 1 | |
| Favorite Win%: 37%, Favorite Itm%: 76% | |
| EXOTICS | PAYOFF |
| Exacta | 114.81 |
| Daily Double | 117.27 |
| Trifecta | 1,076.14 |
| Pick 3 | 1,349.12 |
| Superfecta | 4,640.79 |
| Pick 4 | 3,373.67 |
| Pick 5 | 22,592.77 |
| Pick 6 Jackpot | 29,610.60 |
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Who's HOT, Who's NOT | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOT TRAINERS | Starts | Wins | Place | Show |
Avg. Odds |
Winning Favorites |
'15-' 16 Win% |
| Ness Jamie | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4.45 | 2 | 24% |
| Thompson J. Willard | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4.82 | 3 | 12% |
| Pierce, Jr. Joseph H. | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7.20 | 0 | 16% |
| Servis Jason | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.53 | 1 | 24% |
| HOT JOCKEYS | Starts | Wins | Place | Show |
Avg. Odds |
Winning Favorites |
'15-' 16 Win% |
| Lopez Paco | 12 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1.83 | 3 | 21% |
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