How to bet the Shadwell Turf Mile

October 1st, 2020

An outstanding field of 11 will travel one mile on the Keeneland lawn in Saturday’s $750,000 Shadwell Turf Mile (G1). The “Win and You’re In” challenge series event will reward the winner with a berth in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) on Nov. 7.

Shadwell Turf Mile Analysis

#2 Halladay is the inside pace of the race and will set sail for the lead from the break. He will receive some pressure from #8 Analyze It, #10 Spectacular Gem, and #11 Ivar. I envision the tempo to be honest in the very least.

Shadwell Turf Mile Contenders

#1 CASA CREED -- Consistent son of Jimmy Creed comes in off a third in the Fourstardave (G1) for Mott. The 4-year-old colt drew inside for his Keeneland debut, and he could sit a nice trip saving ground behind an expected healthy pace to the top of the stretch. Martin Garcia will guide the exotics contender.

#2 HALLADAY -- Grade 1 victor is the one to catch for Pletcher. Fourstardave star has been sharp in 2020, and he proved to be versatile in his latest assignment when succeeding over a ‘good’ turf course at Saratoga. Luis Saez will ride the speedy War Front colt.

#3 WITHOUT PAROLE -- First of four prime players for Chad Brown is winless from five tries on U.S. ground, but he ran one of his best stateside races when a close fourth in the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) on the course in July. The one-run closer has back class as a Group 1 hero, and he will receive the needed swift early tempo to aid his robust late kick. Julien Leparoux picks up the mount.

#4 BOWIE’S HERO -- Defending champ has missed the board in three of his last four since earning his biggest score to date for D’Amato. Talented son of Artie Schiller remains a threat, however, due to his affinity for the Keeneland turf. Rafael Bejarano has the call.

#5 BORN GREAT -- Lightly raced gelding has looked good in two straight easy wins at Kentucky Downs for Walsh. The 4-year-old takes a major class hike on Saturday in a deep field, though, and it’s hard to back him with confidence at this stage of his development.

#6 RAGING BULL -- Multiple Grade 1 hero was a neck third in the Maker’s Mark on this oval in July for Brown. Potent late runner didn’t fire at Saratoga most recently, but he removes the blinkers for this engagement and could peak third time off the break. Joel Rosario retains the mount atop the son of Dark Angel.

#7 FLAVIUS -- Brown trainee ran a big one in capturing the Tourist Mile S. last time out at Kentucky Downs. War Front 5-year-old has never run a bad one in his seven-race career, and he has as much room for improvement as any contender in the cast. Santana will pilot the interesting Kentucky-bred.

#8 ANALYZE IT -- Multiple Grade 1-placed son of Point of Entry returned from a 22-month absence to easily win the Red Bank (G3) at Monmouth most recently. Bay 5-year-old ran pretty well in the race in 2018 as a sophomore, and I think he is sitting on a big performance second time off the long break. Tyler Gaffalione picks up the ride.

#9 PARLOR -- Lonhro gelding was second best in the Maker’s Mark Mile here in July and has to be given a chance for Mike Maker. Dark bay has placed in three of four local assignments, and he will be a square price beneath Rispoli.

#10 SPECTACULAR GEM -- James Baker pupil was unplaced in the recent Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (G1) and faces a tall task against this bunch from a wide post draw. Can the Man 4-year-old has the early foot to be in the hunt early on, but he would be a surprise to me.

#11 IVAR -- Two-time Group 1 victor was a smart third in the Tourist Mile most recently, and he comes in with the blinkers removed for Lobo. Wildcard in the cast gets a tough post parked widest of all, and he will need a big step forward to upset this field on Saturday. Joe Talamo will be in the stirrups.

Shadwell Turf Mile Wagers

  • $5 Exacta Box: 3,6,8 ($30)
  • 50-cent Trifecta: 3,6,8 with 3,6,8 with all ($27)