How to handicap Super High 5 at Hawthorne Mandatory Payout

by NICOLLE NEULIST

The Hawthorne meeting will not end until Saturday, January 2, but the escalating Super High 5 jackpot carryover will meet its demise on Wednesday, December 30, when the Chicagoland track forces out all pools.

This is great news for fans of Hawthorne’s competitive racing, as the nightcap—a $5,000 claiming event for nonwinners of three races lifetime (N3L) going 1 1/16 miles on the main track—will have at least $300,000 in added money for the super high 5. For FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs, click the image below.

#9 Turbulent War looks solid here. He cleared the previous (N2L) condition against fellow $5,000 claimers at this track and distance two starts back. Last out, he finished fourth against $12,500 beaten company. Trainer Frank Kirby had entered him back at that $12,500 beaten level on Saturday, but scratched him for this softer spot. Though the likes of Run for Mummy, Sonorous Voice, Kit Kat Man, and Don’tforgettofloss have all shown some speed, Turbulent War consistently shows stronger early pace. He loses overall top rider Chris Emigh but gets strong Hawthorne speed rider Tim Thornton in the irons. He should set the fractions.

There is some chance of rain on Wednesday. Chicago weather is notoriously finicky, but if rain comes, Turbulent War looks even stronger. The track is friendly to speed when wet, and Turbulent War has won his only start over off going. El Medwar (one of Kirby’s house stallions) has sired few runners but four of his progeny’s eight off-track starts have been wins.

#8 Don’tforgettofloss looks like Turbulent War’s toughest competition. He was third against similar company last time out, going the same distance. Atomic, only a head ahead of Don’tforgettofloss in that race, strongly defeated $12,000 beaten company next out. Both of Don’tforgettofloss’s career wins have come at two turns on the Hawthorne dirt. In terms of pace, he can go to the front, or stalk. The switch away from apprentice Killian Hennessy is also a positive sign, as Hennessy did his best work with closers. If new rider Edgar Perez sets him to stalk early, Don’tforgettofloss can get first run and dig in gamely late.

#7 Kit Kat Man (I promise we’re not counting backward) intrigues at a price. In such a low-level race, it jumps out when a horse tries something new. Kit Kat Man has only ever run on dirt twice; both of those races came at sprint distances. This will be his first dirt route, but he does have some form (including a win) at two turns on the grass. Kit Kat Man also takes a drop in class, and goes in for the lowest claiming tag of his career. Looking at his humans, trainer Leonard Slager has had three wins in his last fourteen starts moving turf to dirt, with a +$6.20 ROI. He sends home the occasional bomb.

#10 That’s a Kitten belongs underneath in any intra-race exotic. Though he has not won a race in over a year, he has been in the money in six of eleven over the Hawthorne dirt, mostly against classier foes. He was fourth against this level last time out, and has some recent speed figures that stack up competitively with this set. He lacks the early zip of some in this field, but often finishes in the frame from a stalking to mid-pack spot. The fact that meet-leading rider Chris Emigh returns to That’s a Kitten and not Turbulent War also speaks well of his chances to run a solid race.

Trainer Pavel Vashchenko has an uncoupled entry (the norm in Illinois, nowadays) of #2 Run For Mummy and #5 Sonorous Voice. Vashchenko himself has been solid this meet, but serious questions surround both of his runners. Run For Mummy will be the longer priced of the two, an interesting angle, but the only dirt form he has shown has been at Mountaineer. Form at the Mountain seldom holds in Chicago. Run For Mummy has been well-beaten in two starts at this level and distance at Hawthorne, and looks over his head again here. Sonorous Voice has missed the board in all four tries over the Hawthorne main, but finished fourth against slightly tougher company last time out. This horse also has a two-turn win over dirt at Fair Grounds, albeit in the spring of 2014. Sonorous Voice prefers to be a bit more forward than he was last out; if rider Julio Felix puts him there, he is Vashchenko’s far better chance here.

Four longshot closers complete the field. #1 Leon Robert has been well beaten in his last two starts at this level. He looks off form, and typically does better over the turf and polytrack at Arlington. #3 Redbone may be the least consistent horse on the Chicago circuit: he usually trails throughout, but every so often he decides he wants to run. When he does, his late pace is sharp -- and he can close into a pace that is less that zippy. Though Redbone is better across town on polytrack, he occasionally fires well enough on dirt (at sufficiently astronomical odds) to be attractive for the lowest rungs of a high-five ticket. #4 Eben Zabeel showed strong form through the summer and early fall, but has been well beaten in both starts since passing his N2L condition. He has been soundly beaten in both starts against N3L types, though his late pace figures suggest that he has left himself far too much to do late, as opposed to completely not firing. Still, he has struggled so much in N3L that Eben Zabeel seems at best a contender for the lowest rungs of a high-five. #6 Jacob’s Lighthouse has not won in four and a half years, and has no appeal on top. However, if rain falls, use this longshot underneath. He was third against similar company over a sloppy track earlier this meet, and has a 9-1-4-2 career line over off dirt.

HAWTHORNE AT A GLANCE
Avg. Winning Odds: 4.91 - 1
Favorite Win%: 40%, Favorite Itm%: 70%
EXOTICS	PAYOFF
Exacta	68.42
Daily Double	72.89
Trifecta	430.93
Pick 3	509.57
Superfecta	2,469.11
Pick 4	4,177.93
Pick 5	12,293.89
Pick 6 Jackpot	15,165.75
Super High Five Jackpot	8,048.13
Place Pick 8	5,645.74

TRACK BIAS MEET(10/02 - 12/26) Distance # Race % Wire Best Style Best Posts   6.0fDirt 121 28% E Outside   6.5fDirt 41 24% E/P Inside   1m 70yDirt 67 30% E Middle   1 1/16mDirt 44 27% E Rail/Ins   Turf Sprint 17 59% E Outside   Turf Routes 45 31% E Rail/Ins

TRACK BIAS WEEK(12/20 - 12/26) Distance # Race % Wire Best Style Best Posts   6.0fDirt 3 33% E/P Inside   6.5fDirt 1 0% S Rail/Ins   1m 70yDirt 4 75% E Middle   1 1/16mDirt 1 0% E/P Middle   Turf Sprint 0 0% - na   Turf Routes 0 0% - na

Who's HOT, Who's NOT
HOT TRAINERS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Winning Favorites	'14-' 15 Win%
Brinson Clay	7	3	0	0	2.73	1	22%
Silva Carlos H.	2	2	0	0	3.40	1	13%
Scherbenske Percy E.	4	2	0	2	5.95	0	13%
Mason Ingrid	5	2	0	1	4.04	1	19%
HOT JOCKEYS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Winning Favorites	'14-' 15 Win%
Emigh Christopher A.	8	2	0	0	18.10	1	15%
COLD TRAINERS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Beaten Favorites	'14-' 15 Win%
COLD JOCKEYS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Beaten Favorites	'14-' 15 Win%