How to play day two of the Sydney Championships

Day two of the Sydney Championships is usually a strong one, highlighted by the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. It’s a race in which the mares have beaten the boys regularly: it was dominated by the mighty Winx for three years, and in the last two years it was taken by another two fabulous distaffers, Pride of Jenni and Via Sistina. This year, some more exciting mares are seeking to join them.

There are another three Group 1 races on the card, some of which have an open look about them and which could be very nice options for punters. Also, don’t forget the SkyWorld Late Pick-4 wager offer on TwinSpires, where people who opt in for the Pick 4 from Race 7 can receive up to $50 back on their wagers if they pick three of the four winners.

Race 5, 12:05 a.m. ET: Australian Oaks (G1), 2,400 meters (about 1 1/2 miles), 3yo fillies, $709,000

• $10 win/$30 show: #3 Profoundly ($40)
• $1 trifecta: 1, 3 with 1, 2, 3 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10 ($20)

The clear best horse on ratings is #1 Ohope Wins. She looked exceptional when winning three on end in New Zealand, including the New Zealand Oaks (G1) Feb. 21. Transferred to Chris Waller, she didn’t round off her race when fourth in the 1 1/4-mile Vinery (G1) two weeks ago. She is reportedly working much better, but there’s a chance she may have come to the end of her preparation, and I’m prepared to take a chance.

Probably the most impressive prep race came from #3 Profoundly when winning last week’s Adrian Knox (G2). Australians often aren’t scared to back horses up in seven days, and the Adrian Knox-Oaks double was completed in 2020. Profoundly’s pedigree doesn’t suggest she’ll enjoy 1 1/2 miles, but 3-year-old fillies often manage the distance against their own sex in Australia, and she most likely has every chance.

Vinery second-place finisher #2 After Summer clearly deserves respect, as does #4 Soverato, #6 Stand My Ground, #7 Classic Gem, and #10 La Morra.

Race 6, 12:40 a.m. ET: Arrowfield 3yo Sprint (G2), 1,200 meters (about 6 furlongs), 3yos, $709,000

• $30 show: #8 Marhoona ($30)
• $1 trifecta: 8, 9 with 1, 8, 9 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 9 ($16)

Favoritism is likely to go with #9 Tempted; after finding only the world’s best horse, Ka Ying Rising, too good in the Everest (G1) in spring, she’s come back with two victories, the latest the Surround (G1). Her margin wasn’t great, but that was seven furlongs, and she seems better at six.

I think Tempted is most likely to win, though I don’t think she’s quite the 4-5 chance the morning-line suggests – especially with Group 1 winners #1 Beiwacht and #8 Marhoona both rated 10-1 shots. Marhoona, in particular, comes off just beating older horses in the Galaxy (G1) and must be a strong hope.

#3 Grafterburners was set to be the favorite in the Galaxy before being scratched at the barrier; if he gets in the gates and away safely, he can’t be ignored either. #2 Devil Night and #4 Skyhook are others for exotics.

Race 7, 1:15 a.m. ET: Sydney Cup (G1), 3,200 meters (about 2 miles), open, $1.42 million

• $10 win/$30 show: #4 Soul of Spain ($40)
• $1 trifecta: 4, 11 with 4. 11, 13 with 4, 10, 11, 12, 13 ($12)

There are a lot of chances in this time-honored 2-mile handicap. The favorite is likely to be #11 Mr Monaco, a winner of the Manion Cup (G3) Mar. 21 after a wide trip. He’s a strong chance, but as the 4-1 morning-line suggests, he’s not the only prospect.

#13 Newlook was beaten by Mr Monaco in the Manion but improved to win last week’s Chairmans (G2) and should enjoy 2 miles; #10 Juja Kibo was third in both and should run well. West Australian mare #12 Machine Gun Gracie won the Epona (G3) well on March 21 and looks well weighted, but that was at 1 3/16 miles; she’s successfully handled 1 1/2 miles before, but whether she’s seasoned enough for 2 miles is another question.

My tip, however, is #4 Soul of Spain. Second in the Metropolitan (G1) in spring, he returned in autumn to finish second in the Sky High on March 14 before running sixth in a much hotter field at weight-for-age in the Tancred (G1) on March 28. This is weaker, and he’s a top prospect.

Race 8, 1:55 a.m. ET: Queen of the Turf Stakes (G1), 1,600 meters (about 1 mile), open fillies and mares, $709,000

• $10 win/$30 show: #1 Pride of Jenni ($40)
• $1 trifecta: 1, 3 with 1, 2,3 with 1, 2,3, 4, 5, 6, 8 ($20)

The sentimental favorite without doubt is #1 Pride of Jenni. Her effort to win the Queen Elizabeth on this day two years ago for once justifies the “has to be seen to be believed” label. The exciting front-runner is usually well in front at the top of the stretch but sustains her speed in an amazing fashion. Sometimes the tactic doesn’t come off, but more often than not it does.

The fact she’s in this race rather than the Queen Elizabeth does hint at the fact she’s not quite the force she once was. But when kept to her own sex, she’s still tough, as she showed in the Empire Rose (G1) in spring. She can definitely win.

Though a couple of leading mares are missing, there’s still a lot of quality in opposition. #2 Lady Shenandoah has been taking on the best recently; it’s been a while since she was victorious, but placings behind Joliestar and Autumn Glow are good form, and she doesn’t have those topliners to worry about here.

The other leading contender is #3 Treasurethe Moment. Winner of the Oaks on this day last year, she was good enough for third in the Cox Plate (G1) in spring, and she was back in the winners' circle in the Sunline (G2) last start. 

Despite the quality of the field, I’m going to go with Pride of Jenni again. For exotics, include #4 Lazzura, #5 She’s A Hustler, #6 Leica Lucy, and #8 Idle Flyer.

Race 9, 2:35 a.m. ET: Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G1), 2,000 meters (about 1 1/4 miles), open, $3.54 million

• $4 trifecta: 7 with 1, 8 with 1, 2, 4, 8 ($24)

Dare you tip against the unbeaten #7 Autumn Glow? This race is likely to be her crowning glory for her four-year-old season. And even with international opposition, she should more than hold her own.

The only question mark is that she hasn’t raced past a mile. Her distaff pedigree doesn’t absolutely scream 1 1/4 miles; her South African-bred dam Var was a pure sprinter in her homeland. But her sire, The Autumn Sun, won up to this trip, is out of a Galileo mare, and has produced several horses with ability up to this trip and beyond, so you’d expect her to manage it.

Of her opposition, #8 Aeliana got close to her in the one-mile Verry Elleegant (G1) and is probably better at this trip, but this is her third run in four weeks, and she’s coming back from the 1 1/2-mile Tancred (G1), as is the 2023 winner, English raider #1 Dubai Honour. #2 Sir Delius and #4 Lindermann are others for exotics. But they’re all most likely running for second.

BONUS: LATE PICK 4 (Races 7-10 – ending with Race 10, 3:10 a.m. ET: Sapphire Stakes (G2), 1,200 meters (about 6 furlongs), open fillies and mares, $213,000)

For the late Pick 4 (remember to opt in to take advantage of the TwinSpires offer), you need to look at the Sapphire Stakes; I like #5 In Flight, who has been running against the best sprinters and should appreciate the drop in class, but would also include #3 Gangsta Granny, #4 Catch the Glory, and #6 Flying For Fun.

• 50c Late Pick 4 (Races 7-10): 4, 10, 11, 12, 13 with 1, 2, 3 with 7 with 3, 4, 5, 6 ($30)