How to play New Zealand's richest raceday

New Zealand hasn’t usually been known for its high-value racedays. However, there’s been a major boost in prize money in recent years, and this weekend’s card at Ellerslie racecourse in Auckland is, at $5.08 million, the richest in the world.

It features the richest three-year-old race of the year in the Southern Hemisphere – the NZ$4 million ($2.37 million) NZB Kiwi, which comes in higher than the Australian Derby (G1), Caulfield Guineas (G1), Coolmore Classic (G1), or any other sophomore race in Australia.

The card also includes three Group 1 races and the historic Auckland Cup. It’s a World Pool day as well, so the odds available to players will reflect high liquidity and reduced price volatility. 

Here are some suggestions for playing the main races. 

Race 5, 9:28 p.m. ET: Sistema Stakes (G1), 1,200 meters (about 6 furlongs), 2-year-olds, $327,000

• $3 trifecta: 5 with 1, 6 with 1, 2, 6, 7, 8 ($24)
• $2 trifecta: 5 with 2, 7, 8 with 1, 2, 6, 7, 8 ($24)

This Group 1 juvenile is dominated by #5 Lara Antipova, an Australian-bred that has won all three of her starts without really breaking a sweat. At her last start she won the Matamata Breeders’ (G2) for juvenile fillies on a heavy track in 1:14.54; the same day, her main market rival #1 Justin Case, won a G3 race for colts over the same 6-furlong trip in 1:16.21.

Lara Antipova has won in all turf conditions, both clockwise and anticlockwise, and none of her opponents have the same record. She won’t offer much of a return, but it’s hard to bet against her, so exotics look the best option.

The toughest opponent may not be Justin Case but fellow filly #6 Liguria, a Group 3 winner at Ellerslie in early February. Others likely to figure are #2 Harvey Wallbanger, #8 Te Encuentro, and #7 Lassified.

Race 6, 10:03 p.m. ET: Bonecrusher New Zealand Stakes (G1), 2,000 meters (about 1 1/4 miles), open, $594,000

• $10 win/$30 show: #3 Pier ($40)
• $1 trifecta: 3, 8 with 1, 3, 7, 8 with 1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 9 ($24)

The favorite is likely to be the classy mare #7 Legarto, a Group 1 winner in Australia as a three-year-old and winner of the Herbie Dyke (G1) Feb. 7 for the second time. She’s the best horse in the race, but players need to be wary: she has a much better record anticlockwise (9 wins from 14 starts) than the Ellerslie clockwise direction (2 wins from nine starts). Her Herbie Dyke effort was her best run this term, but she won’t be good value on this track, so I’m opposing her as a win bet.

Instead, I’m going to focus on the first two in the Otaki-Maori WFA (G1) two weeks back. Consistent mare #8 Jaarfi just ran down #3 Pier over about a mile, but while Jaarfi has been up for some time, it was Pier’s second run back from a break, and he should improve. In November, he was good enough to run fourth at this trip to Via Sistina in the Mackinnon in Melbourne, and a repeat of that form would take him close.

Others in the mix are #1 Kingswood, #9 Provence, and at his best, #2 Waitak. 

Race 7, 10:38 p.m. ET: Auckland Cup (G2), 3,200 meters (about 2 miles), open, $356,000

• $10 win/$30 show: #11 Just Charlie ($40)
• $1 trifecta: 1, 11 with 1, 3, 8, 11 with 1, 3, 5, 8, 11, 12 ($24)

The field for the iconic Auckland Cup is somewhat disappointing, but it has an international look to it. There are four Australian-trained gallopers (all bred in Europe), and two other northern-hemisphere breds, including #10 Mahrajaan, a US-bred son of Kitten’s Joy that won this two years ago. His form suggests a repeat is unlikely, though he does excel at two miles.

The best trial is usually the Avondale Cup (G2), which this year was won by #5 Final Return from the Australian #1 Brayden Star and #11 Just Charlie. All three are decent chances again, with Brayden Star the likely favorite.

Also featuring are three leading runners from the two-mile Wellington Cup (G3): #8 Manzor Blue (first), #3 Rosso (fourth), and #12 Trav (fifth), the winner of this last year. Rosso is the shortest in the market, but Manzor Blue’s winning effort was outstanding, and he clearly excels at two miles.

All the aforementioned horses have chances, but the one I like is Just Charlie. His trainer, Kevin Myers, is one of the most astute in the country and knows how to get a horse ready to peak over two miles. He could start around 10-1 and is worth a punt.

Race 8, 11:13 p.m. ET: New Zealand Derby (G1), 2,400 meters (about 1 1/2 miles), 3-year-olds, $743,000

• $10 win/$30 show: #15 Autumn Glory ($40)
• $1 trifecta: 1, 15 with 1, 3, 15 with 1, 2, 3, 12, 15, 16 ($16)

Trainer Roger James has won the New Zealand Derby six times, and he has three leading chances to win a seventh on Saturday: pre-post favorite #15 Autumn Glory, third favorite #3 Road To Paris, and #16 Ariadne. Autumn Glory and Ariadne are both fillies, fresh from running second and fourth in the New Zealand Oaks (G1) two weeks ago to the outstanding Ohope Wins, who is moving to Australia instead.

The biggest barrier to James’ trio is #1 That’s Gold, winner of the Avondale Guineas (G2) two weeks ago. He has continued to win races, often at good odds, but punters have finally caught up with him, and he looks set to start second favorite. He’ll probably go forward, and if allowed to control the pace, he could be hard to catch.

#2 Aksil has shown good ability and will probably improve on his Avondale Guineas sixth, while #12 Lunaman was unlucky in the same race and could well turn his form around.

However, Autumn Glory, who beat the colts two starts back in the Waikato Guineas (G2), looks a class act, and provided she’s recovered from the Oaks, is the one to beat.

Race 9, 11:48 p.m. ET: NZB Kiwi (Listed), 1,500 meters (about 7 1/2 furlongs), 3-year-olds (restricted entry), $2.376 million

• $2 trifecta: 3 with 5, 6, 8, 9, 11 with 5, 6, 8, 9, 11 ($40)

The adoption of slot races, pioneered by the inaugural Pegasus World Cup and popular in Australia with races like The Everest, came to New Zealand for the first time with this race last year. 

The 14-slot race won’t become graded unless the entry criteria is changed; it’s currently limited to horses either bred or conceived in New Zealand or sold at various auctions run by sponsors New Zealand Bloodstock. The latter criterion helps the prestige of this race, because without it, the pinhooked Australian-bred #3 Well Written wouldn’t be here.

Well Written has been the star New Zealand-trained horse this season. Unbeaten in five races, her victories include romps in the NZ 1,000 Guineas (G1) and another rich restricted race, the Karaka Million 3-Year-Old Classic, in which she dominated many of her opponents here.

Well Written’s presence gives the race extra credence, but it doesn’t help punters a whole lot. Domestically, she’s a 1-5 favorite, and it’s difficult to see her beaten.

The best value, therefore, comes in exotics. The best of the rest on paper is #11 Belle Cheval; she’s won her last two, but her start before that was a length beating into third at the hands of Well Written. #8 He Who Dares and #5 La Dorada, placed behind Well Written last start, can run in the money again, while #9 Panther, second to Belle Cheval last start, can’t be ignored.

The sole Australian-trained runner, #6 Asakura, must also be included. At his last start, he was second at Group 3 level to Sixties, who pushed boom Aussie three-year-old Observer hard in the Australian Guineas (G1) last weekend – form that should play well here, even though he has a bad gate to contend with.