How to play Saudi Cup Day feature

It hasn’t taken long for Saudi Cup day to become one of the best race cards of the year. And as always, there are plenty of good playing opportunities – even in the big race itself, despite a dominant favorite. Here’s a look at the five leading races for older horses.

Race 5, 9:40 a.m. ET: Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G2), 1,200 meters (about 6 furlongs), $2 million

• $20 win: #5 Imagination
• $2 trifecta: 5 with 1, 6, 7, 8 with 1, 6, 7, 8

Last year, this race went to a horse coming out of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) – Straight No Chaser – and it seems likely the same will happen again. #5 Imagination found career-best form when transitioned to a sprinting campaign late last year, beating all but Bentornato at Del Mar, and with that horse not present here, the race looks at his mercy.

Japan’s #1 American Stage was a solid fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, and though he disappointed back home in January, he’s better than that and proven at this level. #7 Lovesick Blues was a rallying sixth in the same race; he probably needs more early speed to be a winning chance, but he’s definitely one for exotics. #6 Just Beat The Odds is another decent chance for the U.S, and don’t forget the local runner #8 Muqtahem, unbeaten since finishing second in this last year. 

Race 6, 10:25 a.m. ET: 1351 Turf Sprint (G2), 1,351 meters (about 6.75 furlongs), $2 million

• $10 win/$30 show: #9 Reef Runner
• $1 trifecta: 5, 9 with 5, 8, 9 with 2, 5, 7, 8, 9

The best horse in the field is #5 Lazzat, who beat Satono Reve to win the Diamond Jubilee (G1) at Royal Ascot last year. That was over six furlongs, but he also has good form at seven furlongs. He did, however, have an annoying habit of being defeated while favorite following his Ascot triumph, so he can’t be seen as a good thing.

If you want to take Lazzat on, maybe look at American contender #9 Reef Runner. He made ground late in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) to finish fourth to Shisospicy, and proved himself at 6 1/2 furlongs when winning the Eddie D. (G2) at Santa Anita in September. Barrier 10 doesn’t help, but with the right run, he can be a factor.

Japan’s #8 Panja Tower has shown speed at home and handled travel when fifth in the rich Golden Eagle in Sydney last year, while European horses #2 Comanche Brave and #7 Marvelman also have claims.

Race 7, 11:10 a.m. ET: Neom Turf Cup (G1), 2,100 meters (about 1 5/16 miles), $3 million

• $10 win/$30 show: #6 Royal Champion
• $1 trifecta: 6, 7 with 1, 6, 7 with 1, 4, 6, 7, 8, 11

#7 Shin Emperor won this last year for Japan, but didn’t do a whole lot after that. Part of the reason may have been that he raced mainly at 1 1/2 miles from that point, and he may appreciate the return to 1 5/16 miles here. Still, I’d have liked his form to be better to feel confident about a repeat.

Instead, I’m going to follow the form from the Bahrain International Trophy (G2) last year, won by #6 Royal Champion from #4 Galen. The latter went on to finish fourth behind Romantic Warrior in the Hong Kong Cup (G1), which is good form for this. A similar effort to Bahrain will make Royal Champion hard to beat here.

Outside them, consider #1 Aloha Alii, #8 Silawi, and #11 Survie for exotics.

Race 8, 11:50 a.m. ET: Red Sea Turf Handicap (G2), 3,000 meters (about 1 7/8 miles), $2.5 million

• $10 win/$30 show: #6 Tennessee Stud
• $1 trifecta: 1, 6 with 1, 3, 6 with 1, 3, 5, 6, 12

An intriguing race, but I’m going to go with European Derby form here. #6 Tennessee Stud was good enough last year to finish third in the Epsom Derby and fourth in the Irish Derby, both behind Lambourn. Later in the year, he showed he had the stamina for 1 7/8 miles (on very soft ground) to win the Prix Chaudenay.

That form looks pretty good for here. He faces some decent stayers, including #1 Presage Nocturne, #3 Epic Poet, #5 Struve, and #12 Tarriance, but Tennessee Stud looks to have an excellent chance to stave them off.

Race 9, 12:40 p.m. ET: Saudi Cup (G1), 1,800 meters (about 1 1/8 miles), $20 million

• $3 trifecta: 3 with 2, 7, 8 with 2, 7, 8
• $2 trifecta: 3 with 2, 7, 8 with 5, 10, 13

Can anything beat Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner and defending champion #3 Forever Young? He’s got a nine-pound ratings advantage over any other runner here, and doesn’t appear to have the opposition he did either last year, when he beat Romantic Warrior in an epic duel, or in the Breeders’ Cup, where he held off Sierra Leone and Fierceness.

The downside is that if Forever Young does win, you’re unlikely to get rich. There’s every chance he’ll be odds-on, but is he so much better that he’s a certainty?

On paper, the toughest opponents are the Bob Baffert pair, #8 Nysos, and #7 Nevada Beach. They were 1-2 in the Laffic Pincay Jr (G2) at Santa Anita Dec. 28, with just a head between them. However, both raced on Breeders’ Cup day; while Nysos was scoring narrowly in the Dirt Mile, Nevada Beach was nearly 12 lengths behind Forever Young in the Classic.

It is possible that Nysos has started doing only as much as he needs in order to win, and he could improve further against tougher competition. But on form, he’s got a lot to make up.

Of the others, the most interesting is probably #2 Bishops Bay. He’s raced mainly at a mile, but given that he’s by Uncle Mo out of a Pioneerof the Nile mare, you’d think he should find this distance within his reach. He’s got a lot of improving to do to be a winning chance, but he’s worth considering for exotics.

I find it hard to tip against Forever Young here, so the focus will be on exotics.