How to play the Saudi Derby

The Saudi Derby (G3), now a leg of the Europe/Middle East Road to the Kentucky Derby, is one of the trickier races in the world to figure out. 

Saudi Derby Wagers

• $10 win/$30 show: #8 Satono Voyage ($40)
• $1 trifecta: 7, 8 with 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 14 with 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 14 ($40)

Like many international races, you have horses from around the world – six countries, in this case – to familiarise yourself. Making the task even harder is that, given the contestants' age – early three-year-olds – there are very few ways to measure the formlines. Hardly any of these runners have taken on horses from outside their own backyard, so comparison points are hard to find.

In cases like this, handicappers need to trust what data is available – such as Brisnet Speed Ratings and Official Handicap Ratings – plus the eye test, history, and a little bit of instinct.

All of this makes #8 Satono Voyage the most likely prospect. Unbeaten on dirt, the Japanese-bred son of Into Mischief has improved at every start, and he looked good when putting away opponents in the Cattleya Sho in November.

He’s not among early entries for the Triple Crown, but does have a nomination for the UAE Derby (G2), and victory there would secure enough points for a Kentucky Derby entry should his connections decide a late nomination is worth it. He does have gate 11 to contend with, but that shouldn’t be too much of a barrier.

Of the six previous editions of the race, three have been won by horses trained in Japan. This reflects the fact that the best Japanese dirt sophomores have targeted this race, whereas there are usually second-tier horses from the United States and the United Arab Emirates, whose top horses usually target races at home.

Of the other Japanese horses, #3 Best Green put in a very nice effort for third in the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun to Pyromancer after a wide trip, but he faded more than I would have liked at the finish. #13 Wonder Dean has good form through Pyromancer, while the intriguing runner is the filly #14 Tokai Ma Cherie, who beat the males at Listed level at her most recent start.

The two best Americans both have questions over their form. #6 My World has been excellent at Aqueduct, winning three in a row at that venue, but the speed ratings haven’t been outstanding, and neither has the quality of his opposition. #7 Obliteration has run fast, but he’s yet to race past 6.5 furlongs, and his style of racing suggests a mile could be a stretch.

The most intriguing runner from the Middle East is the unbeaten Saudi runner #2 Al Haram. He may not have beaten much in the Saudi 2000 Guineas, but he quickened like a very good horse. The locals won this two years ago with Commissioner King, so it would pay not to ignore Al Haram.

I’m going to stick with Satono Voyage, but I’m wary of Obliteration, Al Haram, and any number of other horses. It’s a very open race, and if you strike it, you’ll probably get a good return.