How to Wager on the Meadowlands all-turf Meeting
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September 28th, 2016
The Meadowlands begins its 14-date all-turf fall meeting today (Wednesday, September 28), and if you thought the prices were great last year, then you're in for a treat thanks to an across-the-board reduction in takeout to 15% in all pools.
What would that have meant for the average payoffs last year? Well, the average win price would have increased from $18.62 to $19.27, the Pick 3 from $972.85 to $1,102, and the trifecta from $748.30 to $848. Considering I felt like I was one score away from a winning meet (despite a -74% ROI last year at Meadowlands), those numbers give me even more confidence that this is racing worth playing because while the results produce high variance, the payouts when you connect should make up for it.
| MEADOWLANDS AT A GLANCE | |
|---|---|
| Avg. Winning Odds: 8.31 - 1 | |
| Favorite Win%: 23%, Favorite Itm%: 50% | |
| EXOTICS | PAYOFF |
| Exacta | 172.17 |
| Daily Double | 208.33 |
| Trifecta | 1,496.60 |
| Pick 3 | 1,845.70 |
| Superfecta | 16,085.80 |
| Pick 4 | 10,235.80 |
| Pick 5 | 24,003.00 |
| Pick 6 Jackpot | 8,682.24 |
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Connecting, of course, is the hard part. The average win odds last year represent the public gave the average winning horse about a 9% chance of getting the job done, which is a 1,370-to-1 cold pick 3. At those odds, you could pick 15 races and have just a 1% chance of hitting one Pick 3 cold.
Thankfully, we don't have to hit the Pick 3 cold, so what are some things to look for in terms of horses to use? The track bias meet chart above definitely shows inside speed did well last year, and even though the amount of wire jobs decrease as the distance gets longer the E/P best style designation for two turn races still tells me I want a horse with a little pep. I'll definitely upgrade "E" and "E/P" types who have a jockey whose stats indicate an affinity for turf and "E" and/or "E/P" types.
Our banker to kick things off on opening night is #1 Captain Stan in race 4. Captain Stan draws the rail for a drop in class from what he faced at Monmouth, and his last race at the $12,500 wasn't bad considering a middle move while wide. He also retains Jonathan Gonzales, who sports positive metrics on turf and with E/P types.
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