2025 Hong Kong Cup: Trends, storylines, and Romantic Warrior

Romantic Warrior became the world’s all-time richest racehorse when scoring a three-peat in last year’s Hong Kong Cup (G1). If the living legend retains his crown in the $5.1 million event, he would make history again, this time as the only four-time winner at the Hong Kong International Races. 

Already the lone three-peater in the about 1 1/4-mile Cup, Romantic Warrior ranks alongside Hong Kong Mile (G1) supremos Good Ba Ba (2007-09) and Golden Sixty (2020-21, 2023) as three-time HKIR winners. 

Before analyzing Romantic Warrior’s prospects and challengers, we’ll review the historical trends updated for 2025.

ALASTAIR BULL: BETTING STRATEGIES FOR HONG KONG INTERNATIONAL RACES

Hong Kong Cup trends

While international raiders had held the upper hand earlier in the race’s history, locals have won nine of the past 14 editions. The tide turned with California Memory (2011-12), who became the first two-time Cup champion, and Romantic Warrior (2022-24) surpassed his feat.

Of the last nine Hong Kong-trained winners, eight graduated from the final course-and-distance prep, the Jockey Club Cup (G2). But only California Memory (2012) and Romantic Warrior (2022, 2024) turned the double. The others improved from prep losses to win the Cup. 

Within this 14-year time span, Japan also hit a purple patch with five winners between 2015-21. That quintet includes the most recent female winners in Normcore (2020) and Loves Only You (2021). 

Three of those recent Japanese winners were exiting the Tenno Sho Autumn (G1), most memorably Maurice (2016), who won both major races. Compatriots A Shin Hikari (2015) and Win Bright (2019) were unplaced in the Tokyo feature and rebounded in Hong Kong. If you widen the lens to include Japan’s 2001 hero, Agnes Digital, note that he won the Tenno Sho en route to the Cup.

Going back further to 1999, when the Cup took on its present form, you find the golden era of the Europeans. For our purposes, we’re including the Godolphin winners officially representing the United Arab Emirates, Fantastic Light (2000) and Ramonti (2007), and European veteran Eagle Mountain (2008), who technically counted as a South African because of trainer Mike de Kock. 

European-campaigned horses won nine of the first 12 runnings of the about 1 1/4-mile prize, from Jim and Tonic (1999) to Snow Fairy (2010). But they’ve been eclipsed by the growing strength of the Pacific Rim over the past decade or so.

Snow Fairy is one of five females to win the Cup in its current form. The British shipper ranks as just the second three-year-old filly to beat older males here. The first, Jim Bolger’s Alexander Goldrun (2004), is also the only Irish-based winner of the Cup so far. 

Looking at the past 20 years, nine favorites have justified market support, a trend bolstered by Romantic Warrior. Only two have sprung upsets at double-digit prices in this time frame; over the entire 26 years, the grand total is four. 

Ten of the last 20 winners broke from posts 1-4. In that span, only A Shin Hikari overcame a double-digit draw (post 11 of 13). You have to go back another decade to find the preceding example, Alexander Goldrun (post 12 of 14).

Storylines for the Hong Kong Cup

Romantic Warrior’s comeback answered the key question

Not just a local kingpin, Romantic Warrior has established himself as an all-time great by capturing major races on the world stage. His victories in the 2023 Cox Plate (G1) (Australia’s weight-for-age championship), 2024 Yasuda Kinen (G1) (Japan’s premier metric mile contest), and 2025 Jebel Hatta (G1) in course-record time at Meydan all proved that he was adaptable to a variety of conditions.

Romantic Warrior’s adaptability extended to dirt in the Saudi Cup (G1), where he forced Forever Young to pull out all the stops to catch him. That slugfest took its toll. Both suffered upsets in Dubai next time, although Romantic Warrior ran better in defeat when just denied by Soul Rush in the Dubai Turf (G1). 

What cast a cloud of uncertainty over Romantic Warrior was not his gallant losses, but a surgical procedure in late May. Diagnostic screening revealed that he needed a screw in his left foreleg.

Trainer Danny Shum and his team nursed Romantic Warrior back to top condition in time for his prep, the Jockey Club Cup. The Irish-bred answered any lingering doubt when he showed his trademark acceleration. Zooming past defending Mile champion Voyage Bubble, he posted a final 400-meter sectional in :21.73 – faster than sprint machine Ka Ying Rising’s closing split in his prep. 

Of course, their race shapes were apples and oranges, but the clutch point was that Romantic Warrior’s speed, mechanics, and swagger were all back. Even better, the slow pace that turned his race into a sit-and-sprint dynamic made for a less taxing comeback. 

If Romantic Warrior had to endure an end-to-end gallop first-up at about 1 1/4 miles, the specter of regressing would loom larger. But he only had to zip down the lane, suggesting that there’s no reason to fear the dreaded “second-up syndrome.” Moreover, he could enjoy a similar scenario here, with Irish globetrotter Galen likely to play the role of controlling speed.

Every indication is that Romantic Warrior is coming up to another superlative performance. They’re only flesh and blood, yet he’s not betraying any signs of slowing down at the age of seven.

Bellagio Opera hopes to play spoiler off the layoff

Japan is the logical place to look for challengers. Over the past decade, even in the years they haven’t won, Japanese shippers have factored consistently in the placings. Bellagio Opera and Rousham Park are eligible to prolong the trend, although each presents something of a question mark.

Bellagio Opera’s talent is not in question, especially at this trip. The son of Lord Kanaloa became the first repeat winner of the Osaka Hai (G1) at Hanshin back in April, scorching to a new course record of 1:56.2. His tactical style ensures that he’ll be well placed in a modestly-run race.

But Bellagio Opera hasn’t been seen since his runner-up effort in the June 15 Takarazuka Kinen (G1). While the break was by design, for a horse who doesn’t like the heat, that kind of gap hasn’t been conducive to success in this race. Hong Kong Cup winners invariably have run during the fall. 

Rousham Park breathing easier 

Rousham Park’s biggest moment came in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1), when he flew late and missed by a neck to Godolphin’s decorated Rebel’s Romance. Earlier last year, Rousham Park came up a neck shy to Bellagio Opera in his first Osaka Hai.

But Rousham Park hasn’t performed up to that level of late, and he underwent throat surgery to address the issue. His first start back was a forgettable 12th in the Nov. 9 Copa Republica Argentina (G2). 

That reportedly woke him up, and Rousham Park could be ready to do himself justice. It’s significant that he reunites with Christophe Lemaire, who tends to get the best from him. Lemaire steered him to his signature win in the 2023 Sankei Sho All Comers (G2), and he was also aboard for the Breeders’ Cup. He was not in the saddle for Rousham Park’s listless eighth in the 2023 Hong Kong Cup, a non-effort that doesn’t necessarily portend anything here. Note that sire Harbinger is responsible for one Cup winner already in Normcore. 

Quisisana brings the female angle

Beyond the five Cup heroines, females often make their presence felt in the placings, and Quisisana has the form in the book. As the winner of the Prix Jean Romanet (G1), she contributed to trainer Francis-Henri Graffard’s career year. 

Graffard’s regard for her was evident in his comments leading up to her Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) bid, and she was not disgraced in ninth behind stablemate Daryz. Wheeling back for the British Champions Fillies & Mares (G1) in her own division, Quisisana finished third to the high-powered duo of Kalpana and Estrange. 

Those past two starts told Graffard that Quisisana was not as effective going as far as 1 1/2 miles. With a 3-for-4 record at this shorter distance, including the Romanet, she has claims to pick up more black-type before beginning her new life as a broodmare. 

Galen prescribes a new claim to fame

Initially the answer to a trivia question – “Who was second to City of Troy on debut?” – Galen is at last beginning to put it all together. It took time, a gelding operation, and a winter in Dubai, but the son of Gleneagles turned the corner with a front-running victory over Jan Brueghel in the April 12 Alleged (G3) at the Curragh.

The Joseph O’Brien trainee has placed in his past four, most recently threatening to wire the Nov. 17 Bahrain International Trophy (G2). Newly-minted Irish champion jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle, who lifted Ethical Diamond to a Breeders’ Cup surprise, can be relied upon to get the tactics exactly right.