2025 Hong Kong Vase: Trends and storylines

All four conquerors of last year’s Hong Kong International Races are back to defend their titles at Sha Tin, beginning with Giavellotto in the $3.3 million Hong Kong Vase (G1). 

But the British shipper will have to fend off several top-class European rivals, and another from Japan, to become the third back-to-back winner in Vase history. Only Luso (1996-97) and Doctor Dino (2007-08) have managed to score in consecutive years. 

We’ll refresh our past look at the overall trends before covering the 2025 storylines. 

Hong Kong Vase trends

Europeans have won 22 of 31 runnings, with France single-handedly responsible for 11 triumphs. The tone was set straightaway when French-based Red Bishop won the inaugural Vase in 1994. Andre Fabre is himself responsible for three, from Borgia (1999) to the two latest French heroes, Flintshire (2014) and Junko (2023).

British-based horses have captured the Vase nine times, including Godolphin’s Mastery (2010), who is officially labeled as a United Arab Emirates representative. The Union Jack had greater success in the first dozen years, although Giavellotto snapped a 12-year drought with his convincing victory here last December.

In the past decade, Ireland has joined the honor roll thanks to the Aidan O’Brien-trained duo of Highland Reel (2015, 2017) and Mogul (2020). They are also the only two to win the Vase as three-year-old males. 

But the hottest country of all in recent years is Japan, victorious in four of the past nine editions. The Japanese claim an overall tally of five going back to Stay Gold (2001). Their current strike rate began when Satono Crown (2016) dethroned Highland Reel. Glory Vase (2019, 2021) and Win Marilyn (2022) turned it into a trend. 

Win Marilyn brought the number of female winners up to five. Two of them were the French three-year-old fillies Vallee Enchantee (2003) and Daryakana (2009). 

As that summary illustrates, Hong Kong runners have found it difficult to defend their home turf in the Vase. Since the celebrated Indigenous (1998), only Dominant (2013) and Exultant (2018) have stemmed the tide. 

Since the Vase was elevated to international Group 1 status in 2000, favorites have won six times. But nine winners went off at 8-1 or higher, six of them at double-digits. 

Over the same 25-year time frame, nine winners were rebounding from unplaced efforts. Seven won their prior starts, and nine had placed.

It’s generally better to be drawn at least in the middle or wider. In all, 17 of 31 winners (and 12 of the last 20) broke from post 7 or further out. No winner has broken from the rail, but posts 3 and 4 combined have produced nine winners.

Storylines for the Hong Kong Vase

Defending champ Giavellotto brings burnished credentials

Although Giavellotto must contend with a deeper field than a year ago, the Marco Botti veteran arrives in stronger form himself. Unlike 2024, when he spent most of the season in the stayers’ ranks, he has stuck to this about 1 1/2-mile trip in 2025. 

Giavellotto upset the odds-on filly Kalpana in the September (G3) over Kempton’s Polytrack, capitalizing on a tactically astute ride in a small field. Last time out, he backed that effort up with a valiant fourth in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) on unsuitably soft ground. 

Botti has had this repeat bid in mind for the entire campaign, ensuring that Giavellotto would rock up a fresh horse here. He won’t have 2024 pilot Oisin Murphy aboard, but jockey Andrea Atzeni renewed acquaintance with him in the Arc. 

Sosie in the zone for record-seeking Fabre

Sosie, who just shaded Giavellotto for third in the Arc, has strong claims to give Fabre a record fourth win in this race. A Wertheimer et Frere homebred like Junko, Sosie is likely to get his best set-up in some time.

Last year’s Grand Prix de Paris (G1) hero and Arc fourth showed his versatility by cutting back in distance this spring to turn the Prix Ganay (G1)/Prix d’Ispahan (G1) double. After it all went wrong for him in a toss-out Eclipse (G1), Sosie stepped back up to his about 1 1/2-mile wheelhouse to prep for the Arc. His near-miss in the Prix Foy (G2) brought him on as designed, and he fared best of the older horses when third to Daryz and Minnie Hauk in the Arc.

The Vase promises to check all the boxes for Sosie, who will find better ground over his optimal trip while fully primed. The Sea the Stars blueblood has been targeting this spot for a couple of months. Connections expected to retire him to stud in 2026, but are reportedly having a rethink, and a bold showing could keep him around for another season. 

Graffard’s Goliath aims to rebound from Breeders’ Cup 

Francis-Henri Graffard’s banner year saw him displace Fabre as France’s leading trainer by earnings, and he also broke Fabre’s record for most Group 1 wins in a single season by a French horseman. Now he’ll try to beat Fabre in the Vase with the moody Goliath.

A world-class performer at his peak, as evidenced in last year’s King George VI & Queen Elizabeth (G1) at Ascot, Goliath has at times struggled to reproduce that form. The gelding needs to feel comfortable in his environment and in the race flow, which makes him a hostage to circumstances. He was decidedly out of sorts in his only prior visit to Hong Kong, for the about 1 1/4-mile QEII Cup (G1) on April 27, and the Nov. 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) at Del Mar likewise did not play to his strengths. 

Graffard sounds much more pleased with Goliath ahead of the Vase, and he doesn’t have to dig too deep into the archives to rediscover himself. Two starts back, he bossed last year’s Vase runner-up, Dubai Honour, in the Sept. 7 Grosser Preis von Baden (G1).

Joseph O’Brien takes on father Aidan with Al Riffa

Aidan O’Brien, currently tied with Fabre as a three-time Vase winner, sends out officially the highest-rated horse in the race in Los Angeles. But his lofty rating reflects his early-season peak, and the Camelot colt has lost the plot in the second half. Can the master of Ballydoyle possibly engineer one last hurrah before Los Angeles embarks upon his new career as a National Hunt stallion?

Aidan’s son Joseph has the more reliable Irish contender, Al Riffa. In his last try at this trip, the multiple Group 1-winning son of Wootton Bassett was runner-up to Rebel’s Romance in the Hardwicke (G2) at Royal Ascot. Dominant going further in his next two at the Curragh, Al Riffa recently lugged the top weight of 130 pounds in the Melbourne Cup (G1) and closed from a hopeless position for seventh. 

Urban Chic sports collateral form with Japan Cup

The lone Japanese entrant, Urban Chic, has more to recommend him than his overall mark might imply. The close relative of multiple Group 1 vixen Regaleira scored his signature win in last fall’s Kikuka Sho (G1), beating the likes of Byzantine Dream and Danon Decile. 

Both give him collateral form of global import. Byzantine Dream traded decisions with Sosie in France. Danon Decile similarly crossed swords with Calandagan, who turned the tables on him in a record-setting Japan Cup (G1). 

Urban Chic has a more direct tie-in with the Japan Cup via his latest outing, the about 1 1/4-mile Tenno Sho Autumn (G1). He rattled home an eye-catching fifth to Masquerade Ball, who just missed to Calandagan next time out in the Japan Cup. Considering that Urban Chic closed his final 600 meters (about three furlongs) in :32.2 at a distance shorter than ideal, he rates a top threat back up in trip.