2025 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe: Top storylines

The field is set for Sunday’s €5 million Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1), the 104th running of Europe’s fall championship that reverberates around the globe.

The about 1 1/2-mile prize has once again attracted leading hopes from Japan, still in search of an elusive trophy at ParisLongchamp. Aidan O’Brien, Andre Fabre, and Jean-Claude Rouget are all back with multiple contenders, while Francis-Henri Graffard has three logical chances to break through with his first Arc.

The perennial storylines of Breeders’ Cup implications, post positions, and the weather forecast are also in play, but we’ll treat them in the context of the contenders. 

Minnie Hauk hopes to justify favoritism from post 1.

O’Brien’s Epsom, Irish, and Yorkshire Oaks (G1) heroine Minnie Hauk wasn’t originally in the Arc, mainly because she wasn’t far enough along the developmental curve at the early entry stage this spring. But the sales-topping €1.85 million Goffs Orby yearling purchase has been improving all season, prompting the Coolmore brain trust to supplement her to the Arc. 

Minnie Hauk propelled herself into favoritism as a three-year-old filly getting all of the weight advantages. With Ryan Moore sidelined, she picks up a course expert in Christophe Soumillon. 

Still, there are a few questions. Minnie Hauk is untested versus males. Even her lone try beyond her own age group, the Yorkshire Oaks, included just one older distaffer, the classy Estrange (who’s unfortunately out of the Arc). 

Minnie Hauk would prefer the ground to be on the quicker side to maximize her turn of foot; that’s why the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) at Del Mar is such an appealing target. But rain chances in Paris on Friday and Saturday could complicate her Arc task. 

Inside draws are good, but not necessarily her rail post. The last Arc winner to come from post 1 was the unbeaten Zarkava (2008), also piloted by Soumillon. 

Moreover, it could be significant that both of O’Brien’s Arc winners were older horses, not three-year-olds. Four-year-old stablemate Los Angeles fits the demographic, but he’s still in the process of cycling back into form. Third in last year’s Arc after finding himself setting the pace, Los Angeles could well end up on the lead from post 14 in first-time cheekpieces.

Interestingly, neither Minnie Hauk nor Los Angeles prepped in the Irish Champion (G1), the race that launched Dylan Thomas (2007) and Found (2016) to Arc glory for O’Brien. The two coming out of the Irish Champion this year are Jessica Harrington’s Hotazhell and Joe Murphy’s White Birch, the respective fourth and fifth at Leopardstown. 

Aventure aims to improve on last year’s runner-up effort.

Minnie Hauk’s chief market rival, four-year-old filly Aventure, has answered a lot of questions already as the runner-up (to Bluestocking) in last year’s Arc. The Wertheimer et Frere homebred has lost only once in the interim, to the world-class gelding Calandagan in the June 29 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (G1). 

Aventure suggested that she could be ready to improve on her 2024 Arc result by improving in her final prep, the Prix Vermeille (G1). One year ago, she was second in the Vermeille to Bluestocking before playing second fiddle again in the Arc. In the Sept. 7 renewal of the Vermeille, Aventure scored an overdue first Group 1 win. If the parallel holds on Sunday, she’ll give trainer Christophe Ferland his first Arc trophy. 

Kalpana hopes to be the next Bluestocking for Juddmonte. 

Kalpana had strong claims to be Bluestocking’s heir apparent. A fellow Juddmonte homebred who carried her progression from three to four, the Andrew Balding filly furthered the parallel when she was runner-up in the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth (G1) at Ascot. Last summer, Bluestocking filled that spot behind Goliath, while this July, Kalpana succumbed by just a length to Calandagan. 

The narrative was persuasive enough to make Kalpana the antepost Arc favorite, until she was overturned by Giavellotto in her September (G3) tune-up over Kempton’s Polytrack. It might not be wise to overreact to that reverse, considering the constellation of factors – the set-up that favored Giavellotto, its purpose to bring her on for her main objective, and the fact that she now puts on cheekpieces.

Bluestocking herself needed cheekpieces at a certain stage of her career, so Kalpana’s equipment change renews the parallel between the Juddmonte fillies. So does the prospect of softer going help Kalpana’s cause. 

The forecast is having the opposite effect on Giavellotto, who was only lining up in the Arc if the ground remained good. If he scratches and sticks to the original idea of waiting to defend his title in the Hong Kong Vase (G1), Kalpana would be the sole British-based hope remaining in the field.

A victory by Kalpana would lift Juddmonte’s record Arc total to eight, while gilding the Balding family legacy. Andrew’s father, Ian, trained the all-time great Mill Reef, the 1971 Arc winner. 

It would be ironic if Kalpana thwarts the Japanese. Her sire, Study of Man, is a son of Japan’s legendary Deep Impact. 

Japan’s Croix du Nord and Byzantine Dream draw out wide.

All three of Japan’s flagbearers won their preps in France, only for bad luck at Thursday’s draw to put a damper on their two brightest hopes.

The best of the trio on paper, once-beaten Croix du Nord, fared the worst in post 17. Last year’s champion two-year-old colt, and the reigning Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) (G1) winner, will need to summon all of his star quality to overcome the far outside gate. 

On the plus side, Croix du Nord coped with very soft going to prevail in the Sept. 14 Prix du Prince d’Orange (G3) here, despite really needing the tightener off his summer holiday. Trainer Takashi Saito says that he’s learned from his past Arc experience with Chrono Genesis (seventh in 2021), and hopefully his change of approach will pay off. 

Four-year-old Byzantine Dream boosted his profile in the course-and-distance Prix Foy (G2), defeating a high-caliber cast in the fastest of the three Arc trials on Sept. 7. But he’s landed in post 15, and unlike Croix du Nord, softer ground would be a new variable. 

In other respects, Byzantine Dream has the right profile. The Foy has been the most productive prep for Japan’s Arc contestants. All of their Arc runners-up – El Condor Pasa (1999), Nakayama Festa (2010), and Orfevre (2012-13) – had limbered up in the Foy. Moreover, as Andrew Hawkins of idolhorse.com reveals, Japanese runners with lighter bodyweights tend to do better than their heavier compatriots in the Arc, and that metric points to Byzantine Dream. 

Alohi Alii the avenger for grandad Orfevre?

Alohi Alii, the one Japanese hope to escape with a good post in 4, arguably has the most to prove of the three. His front-running coup in the Prix Guillaume d’Ornano (G2), far beyond the level he’d shown at home, could be viewed as a case of slow-pace opportunism at Deauville. Given the race shape, perhaps the form shouldn’t be taken literally. 

On the other hand, Alohi Alii was still a relatively unexposed sophomore on the Japanese classic scene. Not disgraced when eighth in the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) (G1), where Croix du Nord was second, he skipped the Japanese Derby in favor of a French build-up to the Arc.

That was the bold stroke of trainer Hiroyasu Tanaka, who’d spent time in France earlier in his career. Alohi Alii responded to his new environment well, implying that he can’t be pigeonholed based on his Japanese form. Tanaka nearly upset last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf with the 22-1 Rousham Park, and he might be on the verge of exceeding expectations here.

Alohi Alii has a pair of pedigree angles too. He’s out of a mare by Orfevre, who came agonizingly close in the 2012 Arc before costing himself late. And Alohi Alii is inbred to Tony Bin, the 1988 Arc hero. Tony Bin factors on both halves of the pedigree, through his daughters. 

Fabre double-handed in search of record-extending ninth Arc.

The longtime Arc record-holder with eight wins as a trainer, Fabre hasn’t had as much success in recent years. Waldgeist (2019) was his most recent winner, 13 years after the penultimate Rail Link (2006). 

If Fabre is to pad that stat on Sunday, at least one of his pupils will have to reverse form with the Japanese. Sosie, fourth as the favorite in last year’s Arc, has more to recommend him than sophomore Cualificar, who nevertheless enters on the upswing. Both received plum draws, with Sosie in post 3 and Cualificar in post 8. 

Sosie began 2025 in sparkling form with back-to-back Group 1 laurels here, at trips shorter than ideal. But a raid on Sandown for the Eclipse (G1) backfired, and he trailed on a good-to-firm course. Freshened for an Arc prep in the Foy, he was just run down late by Byzantine Dream and settled for second. Although Sosie loses Wertheimer’s retained rider, Maxime Guyon, to fellow homebred Aventure, he picks up Stephane Pasquier, and his fondness for this track can’t be discounted.

Godolphin’s Cualificar was similarly ring-rusty when a one-paced third behind Alohi Alii at Deauville. He’s better judged by his close second in the Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) (G1) and his sharp turn of foot to overcome traffic trouble in the Prix Niel (G2). While that was the slowest of the Sept. 7 Arc trials, the Niel was also his lone opportunity so far at this trip. Cualificar could have more to offer, even if the Niel hasn’t yielded an Arc winner since Rail Link. 

Graffard has three chances of scoring his first Arc.

Graffard has made a name for himself on the international stage, but he’s also France’s leading trainer going into Arc weekend. His trio of prospects need to step up on the bare form, but two of them wouldn’t be a shock. 

The Aga Khan Studs’ homebred Daryz nearly upset Croix du Nord last out. Even allowing for his advantage of race-fitness over the Japanese colt who was still getting acquainted with his surroundings, his prep was full of merit. Daryz was turning the page on a debacle in the Juddmonte International (G1), where a weirdly-run race did not allow him to do himself justice. Daryz is eligible to improve in this first try at about 1 1/2 miles, if he’s mentally ready for such a championship race. Graffard identifies immaturity as the main question mark for a sophomore with untapped potential.

Perhaps the most straightforward of his trio is Gezora, a classic-winning three-year-old filly with the same weight break as favored Minnie Hauk, at a much more enticing price. An excellent second to Aventure in the Vermeille, Gezora was tenderly handled in that first start back since capturing the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) (G1). 

Sparingly-raced mare Quisisana comes off a new career high in the Prix Jean Romanet (G1). That about 1 1/4-mile test for distaffers at Deauville hasn’t been a hotbed of Arc hopes historically. Quisisana’s main talking point is the tangible love and esteem of her trainer, and the implication is that the five-year-old might have achieved more by now if not for a career plagued by various issues. 

Don’t count out two-time Arc winner Rouget.

Rouget has won the Arc twice in the past five years, with Sottsass (2020) and Ace Impact (2023), but you’d never know it from the gigantic odds on his current entrants. 

Leffard earned the biggest victory of his brief career in the July 13 Grand Prix de Paris (G1) over this track and trip. Bettors may be in an unforgiving mood since that effort was bookended by a clunker in the French Derby and a sixth as the favorite in the Niel. Yet the Niel was not run to suit him at all, and the sectionals show that he delivered a sneaky performance in the circumstances. Note that he keeps Cristian Demuro, who rode both of Rouget’s Arc heroes, and Leffard gets the advantageous post 6. 

Arrow Eagle, a half-brother to Ace Impact, has not emerged as a superstar of that mold, and he loses Demuro after his sixth in the Foy behind Byzantine Dream and Sosie. Yet that disappointment came off a three-month break, which apparently interrupted Arrow Eagle’s newfound momentum. Previously riding a four-race winning streak, he climbed the class ladder until edging the smart Sibayan in the Grand Prix de Chantilly (G2). Soft ground is liable to move him up, and if more rain is conducive to chaos, he’s not a 100-1 shot to sneak into the frame.