2026 Saudi Cup Day: Top 10 storylines

The world’s richest race features the world’s top-rated dirt horse, as global dirt supremo Forever Young is on a quest to become the first two-time winner of the $20 million Saudi Cup (G1). That’s just one of the storylines surrounding Saturday’s star-studded program at King Abdulaziz Racecourse in Riyadh. 

From the Saudi Cup and Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G2) serving as “Win and You’re In” events in the Breeders’ Cup Challenge series, to the Saudi Derby (G3) offering points on the expanded Euro/Mideast Road to the Kentucky Derby, there’s plenty of North American interest at stake. And, as ever, the turf races serve up intriguing clashes of formlines from the world over.

Be sure to read Alastair Bull's selections and wagering strategy for Saudi Cup Day.

Let’s dive into the Saudi Cup before exploring the undercard angles.

Forever Young’s historic profile

The Saudi Cup will be run for just the seventh time on Saturday, and only two past champions have even tried to repeat. Mishriff lived out the prophecy of “the first shall be last,” for the 2021 hero trailed home last of 14 the following year. The shocking winner of the 2022 edition, locally-based Emblem Road, was a creditable sixth in 2023.

Yet the limited sample size itself hints of the magnitude of the task. To win this race twice, a horse must reproduce peak world-class form early in the season for the second year in a row, often with the added challenge of long-distance shipping. For that reason, repeat winners figure to be a rarity as the history of the Saudi Cup unfolds. 

Forever Young has the ability as the class of the field. He also has a master trainer in Yoshito Yahagi, so far the only horseman to win two Saudi Cups (with Panthalassa being his first in 2023). Moreover, on paper, no rival is on the level of last year’s valiant runner-up, Romantic Warrior.

If Forever Young performs as an odds-on favorite should, his historic resume will take on even greater proportions. He would become the first Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner to add the Saudi Cup, and his career bankroll would approach $30 million, not far off Romantic Warrior’s record total. 

No wonder that Bob Baffert hailed Forever Young as a “unicorn.” 

Baffert hopes for Saudi Cup breakthrough

Baffert runners have settled for the runner-up spot three times in the Saudi Cup. Charlatan (2021) suffered an agonizing beat at Mishriff’s hands, and Country Grammer went close in both of his attempts (2022-23). 

Baffert’s current contenders, Nysos and Nevada Beach, interestingly echo his performers from years past. Nysos arguably recalls the brilliance of Charlatan, but with the benefit of a stiffer prep to set him up. Perhaps it’s no surprise that Baffert tabbed Nysos as the best horse he’s run in the Saudi Cup.

Nevada Beach has a stout profile more akin to Country Grammer, who used the Saudi Cup as his springboard to victory in the 2022 Dubai World Cup (G1) over an extra furlong at Meydan. Dubai might bring out the best in Nevada Beach too.

Both Nysos and Nevada Beach have taken the same path that Country Grammer took going into the 2023 Saudi Cup. Country Grammer romped in the 1 1/16-mile San Antonio (G2) at Santa Anita. The latest edition, now renamed after Laffit Pincay Jr., witnessed an epic duel between Nysos and Nevada Beach. 

JRA’s first female trainer takes on former boss Yahagi

Kyoko Maekawa, previously an assistant to Yahagi, is making headlines as the first female trainer in the history of the Japan Racing Association. She sends out Saudi Cup outsider Sunrise Zipangu, who has place claims on his best day. 

Sunrise Zipangu has collected minor awards behind Forever Young twice at home. He’s placed in other majors as well, notably in last year’s February (G1) around one turn at Tokyo. That suggests he’ll appreciate the similar configuration here. Most recently a close fifth in the prestigious Arima Kinen (G1) on turf, Sunrise Zipangu could be a dark horse for the exotics while reverting to dirt. 

Rattle N Roll comes in fresher

At this time last year, Rattle N Roll entered the Saudi Cup off a commanding victory in the course-and-distance Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Cup (G3). But the Ken McPeek veteran failed to build on that effort next out, when a distant fifth to Forever Young and Romantic Warrior.

Rattle N Roll has adopted a different approach this year. Instead of shipping in early and getting in a race over the track, he tuned up stateside. The $3.6 million-earner outclassed them in the Dec. 20 Tinsel S. at Oaklawn Park, and the two-month break gives him similar spacing to his smashing Saudi debut last winter. A fresher Rattle N Roll could be more of a factor. 

Note that his co-owner, Sharaf Mohammed al Hariri, has also bought into Banishing. The David Jacobson runner can claim a piece of form with Nysos, having dead-heated with him for second in last year’s Churchill Downs (G1).

Bishops Bay bids to fulfill plan

When Saudi interests paid $1.3 million for Bishops Bay – a record price at the Keeneland November Horses of Racing Age Sale – the objective was the Saudi Cup. The Brad Cox trainee furnished a dividend by capturing the Dec. 6 Cigar Mile (G2) at Aqueduct, his sixth win in his past seven starts.

Although it’s been a while since Bishops Bay has tried 1 1/8 miles, the well-bred son of Uncle Mo has competed respectably at the trip. He came within a head of eventual champion Arcangelo in the 2023 Peter Pan (G3), and in his only ensuing attempt, he was a clear second to Two Phil’s in that summer’s Ohio Derby (G3).

Cox has gone close here before with Saudi Crown (2024), who was swamped very late and relegated to third. Bishops Bay has something to find on form, but his battling attitude can serve him well.

Former Cox trainee emerges as local “Star”

Bishops Bay’s new owners, King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz and Sons, acquired another Uncle Mo from the Cox barn at auction last year – Star of Wonder. After his third as the favorite in the Pimlico Special (G3), the lightly-raced colt was sold at Fasig-Tipton Kentucky’s July Horses of Racing Age Sale for $325,000. 

A half-brother to Cox’s 2020 Kentucky Oaks (G1) upsetter Shedaresthedevil, Star of Wonder was exported to Saudi Arabia. He’s adapted beautifully to his new home, going 2-for-2 over a metric mile. While Star of Wonder faces a quantum leap in class, he remains an unexposed type who has yet to reach his ceiling.

Saudi Derby pivotal test for Satono Voyage

There’s no shortage of logical contenders in the Saudi Derby, but the possibility of a frenetic pace could be decisive. If so, that would play into the hands of the Derby hopefuls not only proven at a metric mile, but those who ideally want to go further.

That profile fits Cox’s My World, the Nashua S. and Jerome S. winner by two-time champion Essential Quality. It also fits a few of the Japanese entrants, including Best Green and Wonder Dean, as well as the undefeated local colt, Al Haram. 

Japan’s highly-regarded Satono Voyage looks more than good enough in terms of sheer talent, but the race shape has the potential to stretch his stamina. The son of Into Mischief and sprinter/miler Jolie Olimpica held well in the Cattleya S., the opener on the Japan Road around a similar one-turn mile. Chances are he’ll have to find more in the late stages here, and his response will have implications for his future targets. Conspicuously not nominated to the Triple Crown by the early deadline, Satono Voyage will have to persuade connections to get ambitious. 

Breeders’ Cup form factors in both dirt and turf sprints

The Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) form looms large in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint. Baffert’s Imagination ought to have the edge as the Breeders’ Cup runner-up, but Lovesick Blues had excuses for his sixth at Del Mar. Nor can Yahagi’s American Stage, fourth in the Breeders’ Cup as a sophomore, be discounted. It would be a poetic touch if Just Beat the Odds jumped up for Greg Sacco; he exits his first stakes victory in the Elite Power (G3), commemorating the two-time Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion who dominated the 2023 Riyadh Dirt Sprint.

In contrast, the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) relies on a single flagbearer, fourth-placer Reef Runner, in the 1351 Turf Sprint (G2). He’s drawn toward the outside in post 10, next to Japan’s Panja Tower (overpriced at 10-1 on the morning line), but their closing style will mitigate concerns about a wide draw. Conversely, post 12 could be the Waterloo for French favorite Lazzat, who would otherwise be the form choice. Don’t forget about the 2024 winner, Annaf, finally back in form for Mick Appleby and projecting a cozy trip from post 2.

Shin Emperor has questions to answer in Neom Turf Cup title defense

Forever Young isn’t the only defending champion on the day for Yahagi. Shin Emperor wired last year’s Neom Turf Cup, then a Group 2, in a manner that inspired thoughts of “onwards and upwards.” Instead, his empire rapidly declined, and he’s been well off form. Yahagi might have him ready to turn the corner, but Saturday’s newly-minted Group 1 isn’t the softest spot to regroup. The presence of free-wheeling Silawi and Galen ensures that he won’t get the same trip this time either. 

Alohi Alii and Yamanin Bouclier can continue to advertise the depth of last year’s Japanese classic crop. Both boast smart form in the vicinity of this distance, and Alohi Alii, as an also-ran in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1), has a point in common with the Shin Emperor of a year ago. 

Of the Europeans, the classy and consistent mare Survie was switched to George Boughey after selling for about $2.6 million at Tattersalls late last year. She won straightaway for her new connections, suggesting that she might have a tad more upside than the veteran males. Chief among them is eight-year-old Royal Champion, who would be tough to beat if he can maintain his career form that he suddenly struck last fall. 

A new staying star to arise in Red Sea Turf?

The about 1 7/8-mile Red Sea Turf H. (G2) is a routinely compelling exercise because of the handicap conditions. Horses better in at the weights have beaten higher-rated rivals in all six runnings, and five of them scored upsets of varying degrees. 

As a longtime fan of Tennessee Stud, I’m delighted that he suits the pattern with his impost of 127 pounds. The Joseph O’Brien pupil was a Group 1-winning juvenile who ran well in last year’s classics, particularly his hard-charging third in the Derby (G1) from an unpromising position at Epsom. Tennessee Stud enjoyed his first opportunity in the stayers’ ranks to win the Prix Chaudenay (G2). His 8-1 morning line will never hold up, with Ryan Moore in the saddle, but this could be his launching pad to prominence in the division.