Arc Trials: Price horses of interest at Longchamp Sept. 7

Since the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) is held on the first Sunday in October, the traditional course-and-distance preps at ParisLongchamp have been moved forward to the first Sunday in September this year. 

Along with the three “Arc trials,” Sunday’s card features the Prix du Moulin (G1) for milers. These races have potential Breeders’ Cup implications as well, although they’re not part of the Challenge series.

We’ll mention the favorites but highlight the horses who appear overpriced and worth considering as “each-way” plays.

Race 2, 8:33 a.m. ET: Prix Foy (G2)

Andre Fabre’s #7 Sosie (4-1) is the one to beat, back on home soil, in this Arc prep for older horses, especially considering that #8 Los Angeles (3-1) needs to step up off his last pair for Aidan O’Brien. #6 Map of Stars (5-1) has clear potential in his first try at about 1 1/2 miles, as does #1 Almaqam (10-1), but the market is in reality already reflecting that. 

The sneakier option is #5 Arrow Eagle (6-1), who might go off higher than his morning line predicts. A half-brother to unbeaten 2023 Arc champion Ace Impact, Arrow Eagle has won all four of his starts this season. The Jean-Claude Rouget pupil enters on the upswing after successive career highs in the Prix d’Hedouville (G3) over this circuit and the Grand Prix de Chantilly (G2). 

In both, Arrow Eagle beat another relentlessly progressive four-year-old, Sibayan (whom I flagged in this past week’s “International Radar” segment on Jason Beem’s podcast.) Arrow Eagle had been a clear second to Sosie once during his largely underachieving sophomore campaign of 2024, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if the improved, older model of Arrow Eagle can factor here.

Race 4, 9:50 a.m. ET: Prix du Moulin (G1)

High-class miler #3 Rosallion (4-1) is overdue to get a win this season, but post 11 is a complication here. O’Brien sophomore #11 Henri Matisse (3-1) is drawn in post 2, adding to his logical claims as the winner of the Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) (G1) over this track and trip back in May.

But #4 Dancing Gemini (9-1) will get his optimal conditions. A close second in last year’s French Guineas in his only prior appearance here, the Roger Teal colt was most recently third in the Prix Jacques le Marois (G1) on very quick ground at Deauville. Dancing Gemini is most effective on going with at least some give in it, which he should find on Sunday. 

That’s what might tip the scales in his favor against #6 Lead Artist (20-1), who nipped Dancing Gemini in the Lockinge (G1) earlier this year on good-to-firm. Lead Artist promises to bounce back from his disappointing Queen Anne (G1) at Royal Ascot – a strange race whose form has since been turned upside down – but softish ground has historically been a hindrance. His chances improve if the course is riding faster than expected, although post 10 is not helpful. 

Race 5, 10:25 a.m. ET: Prix Vermeille (G1)

#5 Whirl won’t be anywhere near her 2-1 morning line in the Prix Vermeille (G1), the Arc trial for fillies and mares. Already trading at odds-on, the O’Brien sophomore will be the heaviest favorite on the day.

The one quibble is the distance. The only time she tried 1 1/2 miles, Whirl succumbed narrowly to another Ballydoyle superstar, Minnie Hauk, in the Oaks (G1) at Epsom. If stamina is a question, the older #2 Aventure (3-1), last year’s Arc runner-up, will expose it.

Yet the other Ballydoyle runner, #4 Bedtime Story (10-1), might be a sleeper. The Frankel filly lost the plot for a while after a stellar series of efforts at two, but she found herself when a fine second in the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) (G1) to #6 Gezora (5-1). 

Bedtime Story hasn’t had any luck in her two ensuing starts. In the boggy Nassau (G1), she had no shot of catching a loose-on-the-lead Whirl, who had the added advantage of getting ahead with the flag start. Last time out in the Prix Jean Romanet (G1), Bedtime Story was buried on the fence without much room to maneuver. The step up in trip could make the difference for the three-quarter sister to Content, whose signature win came in last year’s 1 1/2-mile Yorkshire Oaks (G1). 

Race 6, 11 a.m. ET: Prix Niel (G2)

#1 Leffard (2-1), last seen landing the Grand Prix de Paris (G1) over this track and trip, should be favored over #2 Cualificar (3-2) in this Arc trial for three-year-olds. British and Irish classic form is represented by Joseph O’Brien’s #8 Tennessee Stud (5-1), who showed his affinity for France by capturing last fall’s Criterium de Saint-Cloud (G1).

The value is likely to lie with the lone British raider, #5 Bay City Roller (9-1), whose odds are actually in double digits at this writing. Trained by George Scott for the Bahrain-based Victorious Racing, Bay City Roller hasn’t won since his Champagne (G2) coup as a juvenile. But he’d finished a bang-up second in his first two outings this season to a pair of worthies. Runner-up in his reappearance to Godolphin’s highly-regarded Opera Ballo in the Heron S. at Sandown, Bay City Roller then went close versus the Aga Khan Studs’ rising star Daryz in the Prix Eugene Adam (G2) at Saint-Cloud. Daryz next flopped in the Juddmonte International (G1), but the very fact he was thrown into the deep end is a hint.

Bay City Roller himself bombed when trying elders in the York (G2) in his latest, the first time in his career that he failed to make the exacta. Note that regular rider Callum Shepherd is treating that race as a total toss. 

Back against his own age group, and stretching out to the 1 1/2-mile trip that he’s arguably been wanting, Bay City Roller has the look of a live longshot. The New Bay colt is out of the multiple stakes winner and Group 3-placed Bloomfield, a Teofilo mare who stayed 1 1/2 to 1 3/4 miles.