Hong Kong: Selections for Happy Valley Nov. 19

First post at Happy Valley on Wednesday is 5:40 a.m. ET, and Luke Middlebrook guides you through the card with his selections and analysis.

Selections for Happy Valley

Race 1: #7 Genius Baby, #1 Sir Charge, #4 Winning Now, #2 Wave Garden
Race 2: #4 Apolar Fighter, #1 Courier Magic, #3 Sterling Wongchoy, #10 Smashing Express
Race 3: #3 Run Run Timing, #5 Legend Star, #1 Telecom Power, #6 Oriental Surprise
Race 4: #1 Samarkand, #4 California Moxie, #8 Absolute Awakened, #9 Happy Buddies
Race 5: #1 Quick Money, #2 Mr Desira, #12 Winning Machine, #6 Loving Vibes
Race 6: #10 Nebraskan, #7 Exceed The Wish, #6 King Victor, #9 Von Baer
Race 7: #7 Smart City, #10 Youth Power, #1 Top Time, #4 Northern Beast
Race 8: #1 Cheaha, #5 Loyal Bright, #4 Silo, #9 Romantic Son
Race 9: #3 Highland Rahy, #2 South Star, #11 Fantastic Fun, #10 Solid Win

Race Analysis

Race 1: SO KON PO HANDICAP

#7 Genius Baby makes his first start for the Brett Crawford stable and has trialed noticeably better, which is an encouraging sign that he can show more under race conditions. Barrier 2 gives him a favorable map, and he has slipped far enough in the ratings to be competitive. #1 Sir Charge drops in class and is coming off his best effort yet, making late ground into seventh. A strong jockey upgrade to Hugh Bowman adds further appeal, and he looks ready to take another step forward. #4 Winning Now had a tough debut from barrier 14, where he was forced to race three-wide on the speed before weakening. With an inside draw second-up, he will enjoy a far kinder trip and improve. #2 Wave Garden gets blinkers on for the first time second-up. His second attempt in Class 4 may see him take the necessary step forward.

Race 2: TAI HANG HANDICAP

#4 Apolar Fighter is on the seven-day turnaround after a narrow second in a head-bobber, backing up his dominant three-length maiden win the start prior. Barrier 1 ensures he maps perfectly to go one better. #1 Courier Magic is knocking on the door with two seconds from as many starts this season and should relish getting back to his most proven course and distance after missing by a head on the all-weather. #3 Sterling Wongchoy looks set to map comfortably near the speed as he drops back into Class 5, which is a positive, and reuniting with Bowman is another plus, given they combined to win in similar conditions five runs ago. #10 Smashing Express was well beaten last start but was eased down late after being held up behind runners. That was his first attempt in blinkers, and he is capable of improving with a clear passage.

Race 3: HING FAT HANDICAP

#3 Run Run Timing is racing well with two placings from two starts since dropping to this grade and joining the Ricky Yiu stable. Barrier 2 gives him an ideal map to settle close to the speed, and he gets every chance to win again. #5 Legend Star can take full advantage of barrier 1 after a run of wide draws. His last-start fifth, where he closed strongly, was his best effort yet and suggests he is trending the right way. James McDonald taking over only strengthens his case. #1 Telecom Power should appreciate dipping into Class 5 for the first time. Barrier 5 sets him up to secure the right run under Bowman, and he is well placed against this opposition. #6 Oriental Surprise is beginning to find his rhythm after a handful of encouraging runs, the latest a close second over 1000 meters. Back to 1200 meters now looks suitable.

Race 4: CAROLINE HILL HANDICAP

#1 Samarkand has been knocking on the door and was only nailed on the line last start after attempting to make all from barrier 12. Barrier 1 gives him more flexibility this time, and he looks well placed to end a long winning drought. #4 California Moxie was beaten a long way last start, but he had plenty go wrong in the run, and that effort is best ignored. With Bowman back aboard and a friendlier draw, a rebound is on the cards. #8 Absolute Awakened produced his best effort yet when finishing an encouraging third on his first try at this track and trip, but shifting from barrier 1 to 11 is a possible map downgrade. #9 Happy Buddies is worth a look rising in distance. The 1200-meter trip has simply appeared too sharp for him in two runs this term, yet he has not been beaten far.

Race 5: THE INDIAN RECREATION CLUB CHALLENGE CUP (HANDICAP)

#1 Quick Money finds a suitable assignment dropping into Class 4 third-up after two genuine efforts down the Sha Tin straight in Class 3. He faced adversity in both runs, and the booking of McDonald here adds confidence. #2 Mr Desira has been a model of consistency this season with a win over 1200 meters and two placings at this trip. With his early speed, he should roll forward again and give another honest account. #12 Winning Machine is improving with each run and his last-start fourth, beaten half a length, hinted that his turn is not far away. Blinkers on first time may just switch him on further. #6 Loving Vibes also gets the shades on for the first time, and barrier 1 gives him the perfect map to lift on recent runs.

Race 6: SO KON PO HANDICAP

#10 Nebraskan may still be a maiden, but he is knocking on the door after two consecutive thirds. From barrier 5 he has the option to press on, and in a race lacking speed he could find the front again and control things. #7 Exceed The Wish has been finishing off well from wide draws in his past two starts. Barrier 8 is not perfect but may allow him to settle a pair closer, and improvement in his map brings him into the conversation. #6 King Victor is an interesting runner rising to 1200 meters after getting run off his feet over 1000 meters first-up, yet finding the line strongly. Barrier 1 gives him the chance to hold a much handier spot. #9 Von Baer was plain last start when finally gaining an inside draw, but a switch to a senior rider and a likely better price keep him in the mix.

Race 7: CAROLINE HILL HANDICAP

#7 Smart City gets the setup he has been waiting for, drawing barrier 1 after two wide gates and two messy runs. With McDonald taking over, he maps to enjoy a soft trip and is ready to win. #10 Youth Power should position himself on the speed in a race lacking genuine tempo. His eighth two back was better than it reads after he struck trouble mid-race, and his overall form this season keeps him in the conversation. #1 Top Time finds a far more suitable assignment dropping back into Class 4. Barrier 10 is not ideal, but on form he still shapes as one of the main hopes here. #4 Northern Beast is capable off his current mark, and Zac Purton sticking is a strong pointer. His last-start fourth was solid given the race shape, and he looked well in a quiet trial between runs.

Race 8: COTTON HANDICAP

#1 Cheaha has a tricky draw to overcome, but his debut fifth was the run of a horse going places. He settled last, more than eight lengths off the lead speed at the 400-meter mark, and reduced it to a length and a half while producing the fastest final sectional of the meeting. With that run under his belt, he should take a strong step forward. #5 Loyal Bright is an unbeaten 3-from-3 import for the Frankie Lor stable and has trialed like he is ready to perform fresh. Barrier 2 gives him the right setup to be competitive on debut. #4 Silo resumes after a long break and a stable transfer but arrives off sound work at the trials and had his form trending upward when last seen. #9 Romantic Son has barrier 1 and can turn things around after three runs where nothing fell his way.

Race 9: CAUSEWAY BAY HANDICAP

#3 Highland Rahy maps to control this from barrier 2 and give them all something to chase. His first-up second to Wrote A New Page reads well, and last start he simply worked too hard from a wide draw before fading late. Back to a soft lead scenario, he can take some beating. #2 South Star is a talent on the rise and won stylishly on his first try around the Valley. His trial between runs was just as good, but barrier 12 is a hurdle, and he’ll need things to unfold perfectly. #11 Fantastic Fun has clicked since being tried at this distance, winning two straight, and although up in grade, he has the right platform to measure up. #10 Solid Win has yet to fire in Class 3, but his fast-closing fourth to Sky Heart last start was impressive, and a first look at Happy Valley may suit him.